This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Mets
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These two franchises share some major commonalities. Both reside in huge markets with much more successful Big Brothers across town. Each team feels snakebit; the Angels with their injuries, mainly Mike Trout each of the last four seasons, and also a string of overpriced and terrible signings, from Anthony Rendon now to Josh Hamilton. Plus decade of the declining phase of Albert Pujols and, of course, Mo Vaughn. The Mets also have signed their string of clunkers, including the same Mo Vaughn, but it is more of a LOLMets thing.
But hey, the cloud over the Mets at least has started to move away. Steve Cohen bought the Mets in 2020 and the peak Mets moments have become far less frequent, while the quality of play on the field has improved, markedly so in the last two months to where they now sit near the front of the pack of National League Wild Card hopefuls. The Angels… not so much.
Today's starter, Jose Quintana, got off to a slow start in 2024 but has thrived of late. In eight starts dating back to June 15th, he has gone 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He also has a 24.2 percent strikeout rate compared to an 8.9 percent walk rate. Quintana never lit up the radar gun, even in his prime Cubs and White Sox years, and in this 2024 hot run his 77.6 miles per hour (MPH) cutter has turned into a nice plus pitch.
The Angels do not exactly torch lefties as their team-wide 95 wRC+ on the season will attest. They do have a few interesting bats, however. Shortstop Zach Neto has slashed .417/.444/.567 in 63 plate appearances vs. southpaws. Kevin Pillar and his still excellent glove generally starts against lefties, against whom he has hit .381/.391/.635. And then there is Jo Adell, who has a 31 percent strikeout rate vs. righties but that drops to 20.3 percent vs. lefties. He still only bats .235 against them, but that comes with seven homers in just 74 plate appearances.
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The Angels will start Griffin Canning, amid a rather miserable stretch in a completely forgettable season. The one-time big prospect had some buzz this fantasy draft season after a strong 2023 finish but has gone just 3-10 overall with an ugly 5.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a 16.6 percent strikeout rate. Those ratios have ballooned to a 6.41 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP since June 13, including giving up six earned runs in six innings at home vs. the Rockies in his last outing.
He will face a Mets offense that sports a 131 wRC+ overall, post Grimace, a date also known as June 12. New York does not hit quite as well vs. righties, with a 111 wRC+ on the full season, compared to 120 wRC+ vs. lefties. Francisco Lindor (.344 wOBA, 22 homers, 22 steals) and Brandon Nimmo (.340 wOBA) lead the way. The real turnaround (sorry Grimace) was probably Mark Vientos establishing himself at third base as he's slashed .284/.339/.555 with 16 homers in just 270 at-bats. Pete Alonso is having a down year by his standards, but he's still slugging .469 with 23 homers.
BEST MLB BET TODAY
Mets ML -132 @ Angels (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I would generally advise caution in reading too much into betting data at this time of year as the trade deadline might mean the players that contributed to the stats may not play for the team anymore. That is not the case with the Angels; however, as they did not trade any regulars on their offense. If anything, the numbers overstate their hitting a shade as Trout played for a month and even Anthony Rendon hit okay in those rare moments he suited up.
The Angels have simply cost their backers money in all sorts of situations akin to today. As per VSiN.com, they have gone 18-31-11 in the first five innings (F5) at home, for a -21.2% return on investment (ROI). Los Angeles must also employ all vampires as they are an impossibly bad 7-25-3, -50.1% ROI in the first five innings in day games. Additionally, they have gone just 7-10-3, -8.0% ROI vs. lefty starters F5 and 28-40-9 with an .8.2% ROI as an F5 ML underdogdog.
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Half-Unit on Diamondbacks @ Pirates +136 ML (DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's tough to fade Paul Skenes, but I tend to like going against aces on full game lines, especially with plus-money odds thanks to the pitching mismatch. He faces a red-hot Diamondbacks team with the incredibly middling and unpredictable Ryne Nelson taking the ball. Nelson has just a 4.53 overall ERA but throws occasional gems, including his seven-inning, one-earned run, two-hit, two-walk, nine-strikeout performance in his last start vs. the Nationals.
