This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Friday, September 27
- Year-to-Date Record: 163-163-1
- Prior Article: 2-1 (+0.50 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Visit the best online sportsbooks only after researching today's MLB odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
at New York Yankees 
The last weekend of the baseball season is all about motivation. We have already started to see some of these teams pack it in, with the Pirates being one of them. I have been playing Pirates team total unders and will look to continue in this spot. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates have the worst run differential in baseball (-2.62) and the lowest runs scored per game (2.2).
The Yankees are only -165 on the Moneyline in a game where they should be at least -220, but Carlos Rodon might be on a pitch count as the Yankees have clinched the American League East but are still battling the Guardians for the No. 1 seed. Rodon has been dominant at Yankee Stadium in his last six home starts going 35.1 innings with a 2.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Pirates have scored more than three runs just once in their last 10 games. I am increasing the unit play here to cover the juice.
MLB Picks for Pirates at Yankees
- Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1.35 units (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Marlins 
at Toronto Blue Jays 
Jose Berrios has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since August 1st, going 7-1 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.88 WHIP across eight starts. The Blue Jays are huge home favorites (-220), so taking that in a single bet is not wise, but you can put them in a parlay or lay the -1.5 runs. My favorite play in a game like this is to take Berrios to record a win, but no sportsbooks were offering that at this time.
There needs to be a play on Berrios here and the best one is the Marlins' team total for the game. This is another game where there is significant juice on the team total under as it falls between 2.5 and 3.5.
MLB Picks for Marlins at Blue Jays
- Marlins Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1.40 units (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals 
at Atlanta Braves 
In sticking with the theme of going under on team totals here. The Royals are another team I have been picking on as they have just scored 3.0 runs per game over the last 14 days. Now they get Max Fried and a Braves team fighting for their playoff lives. The Royals are going with Brady Singer and are tied with the Tigers for the second American League Wild Card spot, but are just three games ahead of the Twins.
The Braves need this game in the worst way, but laying -175 is a bit steep, so I will look at also taking them on the run line.
MLB Picks for Royals at Braves
- Royals Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1.45 units (-145 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Braves +1.5 for 1 Unit (+120 at BetRivers)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1.35 units (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Marlins Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1.40 units (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Royals Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1.45 units (-145 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Braves +1.5 for 1 Unit (+120 at BetRivers)
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