This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Tonight:
Friday, July 26
YTD 119-115-1
Prior article 2-2 (-0.08 units)
MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road and vs. RHP/LHP to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
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MLB Unit Betting Guide
(Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Colorado Rockies 
at San Francisco Giants 
Normally I would not rely on head-to-head history, but it matters when it is within the division and one of the teams has an extreme ballpark either towards hitting or pitching. An example of this would be the Rays against the AL East when they are at home. The Rays owned the Red Sox for years and in this case, the Giants own the Rockies.
We have the Rockies, who are terrible on the road, against the Giants who have one of the best pitcher parks in baseball and the records show it. The Rockies are 1-9, 4-16, and 6-24 at the Giants over the last 10/20/30 games.
The starting pitching matchup of Kyle Freeland and Kyle Harrison favors the Giants as Harrison has faced the Rockies three times including two at Coors with an ERA of 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
MLB Picks for Rockies at Giants
- Giants -1.5 runs for 1.5 unit (BetRivers +123)
Washington Nationals 
at St. Louis Cardinals 
One of the angles I like to look at is when you have one strong starting pitcher at home with a decent price, but a very low total. We get that with Sonny Gray against MacKenzie Gore and a total of just 7.5 runs. While Gray has been lights out, Gore has started to struggle.
In two starts against the Cardinals in the last two seasons, he has a 9.64 ERA and recently faced them on July 6th. Gray also got rocked against the Nationals on July 5th which is why I am going with the Cardinals team total OVER in this one.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Cardinals
- Cardinals OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
Seattle Mariners 
at Chicago White Sox 
Both teams are offensively challenged to say the least and we get two decent starting pitchers in George Kirby against Drew Thorpe.
These are two teams playing awful baseball so far away from taking any sides. All of the recent trends favor the UNDER with Seattle going 7-1 to the UNDER in their last 8 games (14 runs in their last 8) and the White Sox going 6-1 to the UNDER in their last 7 (9 runs in their last 6).
You need to shop around for a 7.5 because most books are already at 7, and the numbers show this could even be a 6.5. The alternate game totals are also in play at UNDER 5.5 or 6.5 at plus money.
MLB Picks for Mariners at White Sox
- Mariners/White Sox UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
Chicago Cubs 
at Kansas City Royals 
The Royals have been one of the best teams in baseball at home going 35-20 averaging 5.2 runs per game while allowing 4.0. The pitching matchup is heavily in favor of the Royals as well with Brady Singer against Kyle Hendricks.
Singer has strong home/road splits with a 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP versus a 3.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road. Hendricks can do it with smoke and mirros at times because he does not strike out many batters, but his overall numbers are dismal. His 6.69 ERA and 1.49 WHIP put him 121st out of 125 pitchers with at least 70 innings with a WAR of -0.2.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Royals
- Royals -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers +140)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Giants -1.5 runs for 1.5 unit (BetRivers +123)
- Cardinals OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
- Mariners/White Sox UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
- Royals -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers +140)
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