This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, August 4
The standings are tightening up significantly after the All-Star break with the reeling Phillies, who are losers of six straight games, now leading the National League East by just five games over the Braves and seven games over the Mets. Only the White Sox, who are on a historic 19-game losing streak, have a worse record since the All-Star break than the Phillies, who somehow still have the top record in the National League.
No matter how great a team may be, every one of them will endure painful slumps that are so bad it makes the success attained earlier in the season look like a fluke. Such are the Phillies, Orioles and Yankees, with the latter two having righted their ships and playing better ball.
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During my 18-year career on Wall Street as an institutional investor and Chief Currency Strategist, I learned quickly that you never try to catch a falling knife. When a stock or commodity is in freefall the worst thing any investor can do is attempt to buy it and believe they are getting a great deal. Well, humans trade and bet, and emotion is a large part of their decision-making. Those who bought into those stocks (teams) earlier go into panic mode to sell and unload that stock/team before it gets even cheaper. The Phillies have been in free fall since the All-Star break, posting a horrid 3-12 record that has averaged a –138 wager resulting in a $14,560 loss for the $1,000 per game bettor who backed the Phillies in each game.
Do Teams That Had Losing Streaks of Six or More Games Win the World Series?
Last season, the World Champion Rangers lost eight consecutive games from August 16th through August 25th before winning again. The Rangers' opponent in the World Series was the Diamondbacks, who lost nine consecutive games from August 1st through August 11th.
In the 2022 season, the dominant World Series Champion Astros had a four-game losing streak from April 19th through April 24th. They defeated the Phillies in six games, who had previously endured a five-game losing streak three times during the regular season.
In the 2021 season, the World Series Champion Atlanta Braves defeated the Astros 4-2. The Braves endured a four-game losing streak six times during the regular season. The Astros had a six-game losing streak in April. You can see the point that all playoff teams, including the two League Champions, go through terrible slides in any given season.
Betting on the Phillies at +225 to win the National League pennant is akin to catching the falling knife while wearing protective gloves just before it hits the floor.
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Best Bets for Cardinals vs. Cubs
A storied National League Central rivalry will take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball when the Cardinals take on the Cubs in their series finale set to start at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Cardinals are at 57-54 and trail the division-leading Brewers by five games. They have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games. The Cubs are in last place in the division at 54-59 but trail the third National League Wild Card berth by six games.
The betting markets price the Cubs as –155 favorites and the Cardinals as +135 underdogs with a posted total of 8.5 runs. In early action, 77 percent of the bets and 78 percent of the handle was on the Cubs. However, after opening as a –148 favorite, the line has dropped to –141 despite the overwhelming support of bets on the Cubs. This implies there have been a few early large bets placed on the Cardinals.
Today's Cubs-Cardinals Starters
For the Cubs, left-hander Justin Steele (2-5, 3.38 ERA) will be on the hill making his 18th start of the season. He went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and finished fifth in the Cy Young voting last season but has not received the offensive run support this season to match those numbers. He is posting career lows in WHIP and home runs allowed this season, so he has definitely improved on his craft as a starter.
The Cardinals will have veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas on the hill, who has posted an 8-8 record with a 4.99 EA in 22 starts including 83 strikeouts over 124.1 innings of work. He has pitched nine seasons in the Majors and spent three seasons in Japan. In his MLB career, he has gone 62-61 with a 4.06 ERA and logged 200+ innings in three of his last five seasons.
Over his last five starts, Mikolas has posted a quality start in four of them. He is coming off a win against the Nationals where he completed six innings, allowing three earned runs with three strikeouts and one walk. He is pitching in top form currently and knows how to get batters out.
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
The following MLB betting algorithm has been used to produce a 265-271 record for 48.4 percent winning bets, but by averaging a +129 underdog bet has resulted in a 12 percent return on investment (ROI) and a $74,320 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor since 2004.
The requirements are:
- Bet on underdogs up not more than +199 using the Moneyline.
- The game is a divisional matchup.
- The underdog won the previous game of the series and lost the second-to-last game of the same series.
- The opponent has a losing record in the current season.
- The game occurs after the All-Star break.
My best bet for the Sunday card is on the St. Louis Cardinals priced as +130 underdogs (BetMGM) using the Moneyline.
