This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Saturday, June 22
With 10 days left in June, the race to most wins is another dead heat like May. The Mets are 12-6 and have the highest win percentage, but because they played the Phillies in London that included three off days for travel, they have played two fewer games than most other teams. The Diamondbacks and Orioles have 13 wins each and are the leaders in this race. The Orioles have now climbed to within one-half game of the New York Yankees for the AL East division lead. The Yankees, who had won the most games in May, have lost three games in a row and are now just 11-8 in June.
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The Best Bets for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This is the second of a three-game series against the Diamondbacks and the Phillies are priced as -225 home favorites including a posted total of 9.0 runs. This marks the 26th time the Phillies have been priced as a –200 or greater favorite this season. Only the Dodgers with 35 games and the Braves (28) have had more. Despite the expensive price the Phillies are 16-4 (80 percent) averaging a –233 wager resulting in a highly profitable 27-percent ROI when priced as a –200 or greater favorite this season. They are 13-7 (65 percent) on the –1.5 run line earning a 26-percent ROI in these games.
Every playoff-contending team goes through tough times throughout a 162-game season and the Phillies are going through their first struggles of the season. They once had a 10-game lead over the Braves in the NL East, but that lead has shrunk to just six games entering today's game. They have lost two straight games for the third time in the past nine days, but remain the only team in MLB to have suffered just one three-game losing streak this season. After winning four straight games from June 3 to 8, they have gone 4-7 averaging a –138 wager for a terrible –33-percent ROI.
The Diamondbacks are the team that eliminated the Phillies last season by winning Game 7 at Citizens Bank Park and ending their World Series aspirations. Once again, the Diamondbacks won Friday in a hard-fought 5-4 win in front of another sellout crowd. The Diamondbacks have won two straight games four times since June 9, with just three losses separating each of the two-game win streaks.
The Phillies' offense has sputtered recently, but they still rank fifth in scoring an average of 5.00 runs per game and fourth outscoring their foes by 100 runs on the season. They rank fourth in team batting average at .256, sixth averaging 1.17 home runs per game, but 13th averaging 1.56 doubles per game. The Phillies will be looking to hit to all parts of the ballpark and not be looking to hit home runs to get out of their offensive slump.
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Who Are the Starters for this Matchup?
The Phillies will have their ace Zack Wheeler on the hill this afternoon with the game set for 4:05 p.m. ET and weather is going to be a factor with heat indexes expected to be above 100 degrees. Wheeler is 23-12 (66 percent) averaging a –135 favorite resulting in a 19-percent ROI in starts with a game-time temperature of 80 or more degrees since joining the Phillies in the 2020 season. However, his record decreases significantly with an increase in temperature and is just 1-4 having lost the last four starts when the game-time temperature was above 90 degrees.
For the season Wheeler is having a potential Cy Young Award-winning season posting an 8-4 record in 15 starts with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP, including 99 strikeouts and 29 walks spanning 92 innings of work. He is coming off his worst start of the season and matching his worst of his career, allowing eight earned runs in an 8-3 loss at Camden Yards against the Orioles. However, he is 5-2 in eight home starts with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.874 WHIP, including 61 strikeouts and 15 walks over 52.2 innings of work.
Wheeler is 8-3 in 13 starts against the Diamondbacks with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.024 WHIP. His last matchup with them was in the playoffs, where the Phillies won 6-1 behind his seven-inning, one-earned-run effort.
The Diamondbacks will have Tommy Henry on the hill and has he posted a 1-2 record in six starts with an inflated 5.40 ERA and a 1.624 WHIP, including 24 strikeouts and 12 walks. He has control issues, and the Phillies are patient at the plate, ranking fourth averaging 3.61 walks per game.
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
The following MLB betting algorithm has gone 93-42 (69 percent) averaging a –152 wager resulting in a 17-percent ROI and making a $35,330 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2020. The requirements are:
- Bet on any favorite with a starter who averages 5.0 or more strikeouts per start.
- That starter was hammered in his last start allowing 7.0 or more earned runs.
That is one of the simplest situational betting strategies to track and follow for the rest of season and seasons to come.
I am betting on the Phillies priced as –220 favorites on the moneyline.
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