This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
Welcome to July! The first day of the new month falls on a Saturday, and we have five games on the MLB schedule this evening with the first pitch is at 7:15 p.m. EDT. Here are some DFS recommendations to hopefully start July on a high.
Pitching
Tyler Glasnow, TAM at SEA ($47): It's only been six starts this season for Glasnow and one of them went poorly enough that he has a 4.45 ERA, but with a 3.83 FIP while striking out over 13 batters per nine innings. Seattle is just below average in terms of runs scored, though that's a surprise since the club is also bottom-five in batting average and strikeouts.
Marcus Stroman, CHC vs. CLE ($43): Stroman was good in his first season as a Cub and has been even better in Year Two. He's nearing the 60 percent groundball rate from his days in Toronto along with a 2.47 ERA. Stroman doesn't allow home runs, and the Guardians don't hit them. They rank 27th in offense because they're last in homers, so I'm guessing they won't send any deep on Saturday.
Top Target
There are a couple reasons why Mike Trout ($20) is having a down season by his standards while still producing a .263/.368/.491 slash line with 17 homers. Unusual for the best hitter of his generation, he's had issues versus lefties and at home. Trout has recorded a .900 OPS righties, and Ryne Nelson is a righty with the Diamondbacks. This game is at home for Trout, but he's managed a home OPS over 1.100 the previous two seasons and a 1.139 across the last two weeks. Nelson has been much worse at home during his career, yet has a career 4.32 FIP. I'm not stacking Angels because of Nelson's home/road splits, but I'll go with Trout.
Bargain Bat
The overall numbers for Javier Baez ($13) certainly aren't great. As a Tigers fan, I'm well aware of this. But from a DFS perspective for Saturday, there are a few things to like. One, Baez's salary is far from prohibitive. Two, he's a shortstop, where offensive outlay is lower than other positions. Three, Baez has made an impact in the counting stats with five homers and six stolen bases while registering 31 of the former just two seasons ago. Mostly though, he's playing at Coors Field this weekend. The Rockies need a new pitcher for the rotation with three on the 60-day IL. No starter has been named yet, but we're projecting Jeff Criswell to be called up from Triple-A where's struggled to a 6.98 FIP. And there's nobody Colorado can call upon to take the mound that worries me.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Royals (Daniel Lynch): Freddie Freeman ($21), J.D. Martinez ($20), Will Smith ($18)
Lynch has posted a 3.96 ERA through six starts, but that would be the best mark of his career. Sure enough, he also has a 5.00 FIP. Lynch also lists a 6.31 home ERA during his time as a Royal and righties have hit .283 against while lefties have gone .284. It's only been 15 batters, but lefties have hit .462 versus the southpaw this season, so I was looking to get at least one lefty in the mix.
Freeman is theat lefty, one with a 1.018 OPS against his fellow lefties in 2023. That's better than usual, though his .841 in those matchups since 2021 is still quite good. Martinez has racked up 19 home runs who had slugged .519 against left-handers the last three years. And in his first season as a Dodger, he's notched an 1.028 OPS on the road. Smith is one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball who's currently at a .404 OBP. He also has 12 homers and has hit over 20 in each of his previous two seasons.
Cubs vs. Guardians (Tanner Bibee): Nico Hoerner ($15), Ian Happ ($14), Cody Bellinger ($11)
The rookie Bibee has posted a 3.84 FIP through 11 starts. That's not good, but there are a couple more key factors here. On the road, Bibee has a 5.68 ERA and has allowed 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Righties have also hit .280 against the right-hander. Bibee hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, and the Cubs can take advantage of that.
With three hits and a steal Friday, Hoerner has batted .290 with 18 stolen bases on the campaign. He doesn't offer much power or walk much, yet does have an .804 OPS at home the last couple years. Happ is a switch-hitter with an .835 OPS against righties this year and a .795 in those matchups and an .805 at home since 2021. The lefty Bellinger is more all-or-nothing, but has nine homers and 10 swipes in 48 games after 19 and 14 with the Dodgers in 2022. It also took him a bit of time to get going after returning from injury, but he's now riding a six-game hit streak.
