This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Another big 14-game slate is on tap Friday evening, with only the Orioles-Cubs matinee omitted. Colorado at Atlanta boasts our only double-digit run total, with just two more games sitting at 9.5. That suggests we'll have ample pitcher to sort through, and at least from a price point, that's true, as six arms are priced in five-figures with six more at 9k or above. The Tigers, Dodgers and Giants all are without listed pitchers in FanDuel as I write, so 48 percent of the available pitching sits at upper price points. Weather could be a factor in the northeast, so keep an eye on Miami at Washington, and St. Louis at New York.
Pitching
Mitch Keller, PIT at MIL ($10,200): With so many options atop the pitching slate, it's difficult to highlight just one. Joe Ryan ($11,400) is an obvious target if you can absorb the price, and I considered Michael Kopech here too, but settled on Keller as my preferred pay up option due to a lower price than Ryan with the same perceived lack of risk. Milwaukee has just a .151 ISO and 90 wRC+ off righties, fanning at a 24.6 percent clip. Keller has fanned seven or more in eight of his last nine, averages 11.9 per nine on the road, and his 4.10 ERA should regress as it comes with a 2.98 xFIP.
Taijuan Walker, PHI at OAK ($8,600): Oakland has been pesky over the last few weeks, taking more walks than the 9.2 percent they average on the year, so this isn't a slam dunk spot, especially considering Walker averages four free passes per nine. But the A's still have just a .289 wOBA, 87 wRC+ and 25.8 percent strikeout rate off righties. Walker hasn't allowed a run in two straight starts and in three of his last five, and his strikeouts are trending upward with 13 in his last 12.0 innings.
Jared Shuster, ATL vs. COL ($7,200): If you're feeling risky, want to target lots of top offense and swing for the stars on the mound, Shuster looks like your guy. The Rockies are the worst offense in the league off lefties, with a woeful 61 wRC+, .284 wOBA and 26.7 percent strikeout rate. Shuster hasn't topped 23 FDP in any of his last three starts, but does have a 46 FDP showing previously, showing there's potential. He's also worked five or more innings in five straight starts, and if the Rockies' offense continues to scuffle, Shuster will be in a spot to earn a win with minimal damage off him, allowing a 4x return or better.
Top Targets
Shohei Ohtani ($4,300) is scortching hot, riding a 12-game hitting streak that's seen him homer seven times. He figures to be highly popular in a matchup against Brady Singer, who's allowing a .400 wOBA and 50 percent hard-hit rate to lefties.
Corbin Carroll ($4,400) is hitless in his last two games, so perhaps we see lower usage here, especially at this price point. The ball has been travelling more than usual in Chase Field lately, which was already hitter friendly. Carroll has a robust .443 wOBA 180 wRC+ and .348 ISO off righties and can impact games in so many ways. I'm not affraid to target against Triston McKenzie while he works his way back into form.
Astros' starter J.P. France has labored at home, carrying a 5.94 ERA and 6.70 FIP into Friday, and it's righties who have done the damage, posting a .413 wOBA and .990 OPS off him. This could be a spot to fade Elly De La Cruz and target lesser used options in Matt McLain ($3,700) or Jonathan India ($3,600).
Bargain Bats
Detroit's pitching is taxed. They're using the bullpen to cover the absence of two starters, and played a double-header two days ago. I unsuccessfully bet the Twins to score over 4.5 runs last night, as their offense is continues to scuffle, but I'm going right back to that well. No Minnesota bat is priced over $3,300, making for a offense I want to target to round out builds. Carlos Correa ($3,200) has an eight-game hitting streak where he's driven in 10 runs, five times providing at least 21.4 FDP. Edouard Julien ($2,900) and Donovan Solano ($2,400) are also in decent form.
Rockies' starter Dinelson Lamet is being torched by left-handed bats, allowing a .522 wOBA and 1.240 OPS. I like the Braves for value in this spot. Michael Harris ($2,700) has 14 hits in last nine games and Atlanta moved Matt Olson out of the 2-hole last night successfully. It's possible Harris slides up here. Eddie Rosario ($2,900) also offers a cheap lefty option.
Jose Abreu ($2,900) has picked up some slack with Yordan Alvarez on the shelf, with 12 hits, three homers and 10 RBI in his last eight games. The splits this year are rough, but he's traditionally faired well off lefties.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. JP Sears: Nick Castellanos ($3,500), Bryson Stott ($3,200), J.T. Realmuto ($3,100)
Philadelphia's offense looks to be warming up, scoring 39 runs in their last five games. Sears has actually thrown really well across his last eight games, posting a 2.91 ERA while allowing a .294 wOBA in eight starts since the start of May, but it comes with a 4.84 xFIP, and I'm banking on some regression. Castellanos is the Phillies best option statistically with a .400 wOBA and 152 wRC+ off lefties. Stott meanwhile is hot, with 14 hits and two homers in his last nine, and has a reasonable .366 wOBA off lefties. Realmuto sits with a .350 wOBA and .282 ISO off southpaws, and has homered in two of his last three. This gives us a relatively cheap stack in the heart of the Phillies order.
Blue Jays vs. Martin Perez: Bo Bichette ($3,500), Matt Chapman ($3,100), Whit Merrifield ($3,000)
Perez has been very up and down, allowing 13 runs and 17 runs in just eight innings against Detroit and Tampa, mixing in seven shutout frames against St. Louis of late. His home/road splits are all over the place too, being knocked by lefties at home and righties on the road. As such, I'll target a less than tradtional lineup stack in favor of Blue Jay splits on lefties and prior success off of Perez. Bichette is our anchor, with a .416 wOBA and 170 wRC+ off lefties. Chapman isn't in great form, but has a ridiculous .480 wOBA and 216 wRC+ here, largely due to an unsustainable .531 BABIP. But he's 6-for-17 (.438) off Chapman with a 1.063 OPS. Merrifield likely slots just ahead of Chapman in the order, and while his .335 wOBA isn't ideal, it's still fourth amongst Jay regulars. He's gone 10-for-28 (.357) off Perez with an okay .864 OPS.
