This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
After Thursday's limited slate, Friday brings us 14 games to sort through on FanDuel's main slate. Both Chicago teams and Cleveland don't have listed starters as of Thursday evening, giving us "only" 25 arms to sort through. Seven of those arms are priced in five figures, and six more sit at $9,000 or greater, representing 48 percent of our pitching options, suggesting we'll have to take one to remain competitive.
Early weather suggests we're hot and dry, ideal for scoring in most cities. Keep an eye on Cleveland-Chicago however, where rain is possible. Run lines aren't readily available Thursday evening, but we do have three already listed at at least 9.5, and that doesn't include Coors Field, so there will be ample offenses to target despite the pitching depth.
Pitching
Zack Wheeler, PHI at PIT ($10,600): I'm anticipating many siding with Max Scherzer as the top pay up option in a psuedo regenge game against his former squad in Washington. But the Nationals don't strike out much, and Scherzer's been up and down, so for a few bucks less, I like Wheeler here. He too has been irratic, but has three straight quality starts and six in his last eight, hitting 40+ FDP four times with a 25 FDP floor. Pittsburgh comes with just an 87 wRC+ and decently targetable 23.4 percent K rate.
Sonny Gray, MIN at KC ($10,100): For as deep as the pitching options are, the matchups aren't great. Gray is the exception, but the form is terrible. On the plus side, Kansas City ranks last with a 78 wRC+ off righties, and second to last with a .287 wRC+. But Gray has just two 30+ FDP outings in his last 12 starts, which makes it a tough sell to return proper value at this price. To Gray's credit, he has gone six innings in four of his last five, so if he can limit damage, he could turn in a performance we haven't seen from him in quite a while.
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL vs. NYY ($7,700): Sometimes when breaking down these slates, I find my cheap pitching preference simply based on the fact I won't write up the opponent's offense. And that's where I am here, as I have less interest in Yankee bats than I do in Rodriguez, where as Tommy Henry also has my attention as a paydown option. Rodriguez comes with a 10.6 K per nine rate, and his ugly 6.91 ERA isn't backed by a 3.80 xFIP. Paired with the Yankees' .302 wOBA, 22.3 percent K rate and below average 92 wRC+, and there's ample chance Rodriguez' performance exceeds the price. And yes, I'm aware of Aaron Judge's likely return.
Top Targets
Cincinnati's Brandon Williamson doesn't have overwhelming splits against either handed bat, but he does have a 4.95 road ERA and 5.21 xFIP. That should put Freddie Freeman ($4,500) and Mookie Betts ($4,300) on radars as anchors, with both having postive numbers off lefties. Betts gets my nod as a favorite thanks to a .407 ISO, as their wOBA and wRC+ are shockingly identical.
The Braves have slumped out of the All Star break overall, but the price points aren't falling enough to allow us to stack. But given the slumps, a few days off recently, and facing Milwaukee for the second time in a week, I think they bounce back big time Friday. Matt Olson ($4,200) has a .414 wOBA, 160 wRC+ and .341 ISO off righties, and pitch to contact Adrian Houser is allowing a .376 wOBA to lefties on the road. Olson is due a long ball.
Bargain Bats
I don't trust the Twins bats enough to stack them, and the splits don't back them much either, so Carlos Correa ($2,900) and Byron Buxton ($3,000) are strictly BvP plays. They're a combined 11-for-23 (.478) off of Brady Singer with three doubles, two homers and six RBI.
Low hanging fruit on this slate is likely rounding out lineups with Rockies and Athletic bats in Coors Field. Randal Grichuk ($3,400) is Colorado's best option off lefties, boasting a .430 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .253 ISO, with Jurickson Profar ($3,200) also a viable option atop the order. The Oakland side isn't easy to buy into given splits, as they are just terrible overall. Tony Kemp ($2,900) has been useful of late, and has a .452 wOBA and 200 wRC+ off lefties in limited chances (53 plate apperances). If you're looking for a dart throw simply because of Coors Field, Ramon Laureano ($3,100) has some past success off lefties, and will at least hit in the heart of the order.
Atlanta-Milwaukee has a double-digit run total thanks to questionable starters, so shares on both sides of this game make sense. If you're not able to fit a top Braves bat into your builds, Michael Harris ($2,900) makes plenty of sense. And in the other dugout, Sal Frelick ($2,900) has been dynamic since his promotion, which has resulted in him moving up in the batting order.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. Mitch Keller: Kyle Schwarber ($3,500), Bryce Harper ($3,300), J.T. Realmuto ($2,900)
Keller is regressing big time, having allowed 14 runs and 19 hits over his last 11 innings, and 18 runs and 28 hits across his last 23 frames. Philadelphia doesn't have a bat priced above $3,500, so you can pick and choose your preferences freely, but the core of this order has a great deal of BvP success. This stack is a collective 14-for-22 (.636) with a homer, six doubles and six RBI off Keller. Realmuto has hit in seven of his last nine, Harper in 11 of 13, while Schwarber has driven in 13 in his last 12 appearances.
Rays vs. Cristian Javier: Jose Siri ($3,300), Josh Lowe ($3,100), Luke Raley ($2,900)
Javier has had real issues over the past two months. Since June 9, he's made seven starts, allowed a 7.52 ERA, 6.80 xFIP while only striking out 14.6 percent. He's allowed only a 30.6 percent hard hit rate in that span, so perhaps a rebound is coming, but game logs don't suggest as such. The problem with stacking Rays is their big names are slimping. That could possibly lead to some value. Raley stands out in that category, and is an attractive stand alone play with a team-leading .392 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .274 ISO. The other names listed here are arguably interchangeable; I like Lowe as a second left-handed bat off Javier, who's allowing a .372 wOBA to opposite-handed bats during this rough stretch. Lowe has a decent enough 128 wRC+ and .215 ISO in this spot. Finally, Siri is in a revenge spot against his former team. He's boom or bust, but has a nice .302 ISO and just a 14.7 percent soft contact rate off righties.
