This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
I always try to go with the "main" or "featured" slate of DFS contests for DFS websites when giving my recommendations, and in doing that for DraftKings on Thursday, we are turning to the afternoon. DraftKings' featured slate features the five afternoon games, four of which start just after 1 p.m. ET. That means getting lineups in early on a weekday, but it's the feature slate, and there is only one game starting at 7 p.m. ET or later anyway. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Bryce Elder, ATL at PHI ($9,700): The young arms are holding down the rotation for Atlanta, with Elder being one of those key pitchers. He has a 2.60 ERA through 14 starts, including an 1.76 ERA on the road. Philadelphia is below average in runs scored, and Elder is good at suppressing home runs, which is encouraging going against homer-happy players like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Logan Allen, CLE vs. OAK ($7,900): This is a brutal offensive matchup to say the least, as both of these teams are in the bottom four in runs scored. The Athletics, though, are last in runs scored, and also team OPS. Also, in winning percentage. Allen may have a 3.80 FIP through his first 10 MLB starts, but in this matchup, that suffices for me.
Top Target
The Padres had to wait, and wait, for the return of Fernando Tatis ($6,500), but he's made it worthwhile. Having not lost a step, he's slashed .286/.353/.558 with 15 homers and 12 stolen bases. Alex Wood has a 4.89 ERA over the last two seasons, and the reason is pretty clear. While the southpaw has helped lefties in check, righties have hit .283 against Wood in that time.
Bargain Bat
Though Luis Garcia ($3,200) doesn't have a ton of power, he's hit .283 with five homers, three triples, and three stolen bases. Notably, he is also a lefty who has performed better against lefties than righties in two of the last three seasons, including 2023. I like that, because Tommy Henry doesn't merely have a career 5.67 ERA on the road. Though he is a southpaw, his fellow lefties have hit a staggering .326 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks at Nationals (Jake Irvin): Corbin Carroll ($6,000), Ketel Marte ($5,100), Jake McCarthy ($2,800)
In spite a 5.64 ERA at Triple-A, Irvin got called up to the majors. It's gone about as well as expected, as through eight starts he has a 5.25 ERA and 5.38 FIP with the Nationals. The righty has only struck out 6.75 batters per nine while walking 5.50. Lefties have hit .289 against him as well, so I have three guys who can hit left handed.
With 16 homers and 21 stolen bases already, Carroll is the heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year in the National League. It helps that in his career he has an 1.020 OPS versus righties and an 1.095 OPS on the road. Marte has rebounded nicely from 2022, as he's slashed .291/.370/.494 with 11 homers and six stolen bases. While the switch hitter does perform better against lefties, he has an .834 OPS versus righties this year, which is encouraging. McCarthy is more of a base stealer than a power guy, as he's swiped 15 bags after stealing 23 last year. He's also been hot recently, as he has a .901 OPS over the last two weeks.
Twins vs. Red Sox (Justin Garza/Brandon Walter): Carlos Correa ($4,300), Royce Lewis ($3,400), Michael Taylor ($2,300)
Here's a stack that can save you some salary. The expectation is Walter will make his MLB debut starting for Boston on Thursday. Garza will serve as the opener, but Walter should get the bulk of the innings in theory. Like Irvin for the Nationals, Walter did not exactly wow in Triple-A. This year he posted a 6.28 ERA in 61.2 innings. That doesn't bode well. Since he is a lefty, I did decide to stack three right-handed Twins. Not Byron Buxton, though, as Buxton has really struggled against southpaws this year.
Granted, it's not like Correa has been crushing it this year, but he does have an .804 OPS over the last three weeks. Since 2021, he has an .864 OPS against lefties, and last year he did have an .880 OPS at home in his first season with the Twins. Once the first-overall pick and still considered a top prospect, we haven't seen a ton of a healthy Lewis yet. He does have a career .307/.327/.505 slash line in MLB, though, and a career .984 OPS at Triple-A. Taylor has 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases, his fourth season with double-digit numbers in both categories. He doesn't hit for a ton of power overall, but has slugged .405 against lefties since 2021, including hitting 11 home runs in 340 plate appearances.
