This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's another travel day in MLB, leaving us with just seven games to discuss. The good news is that all of them are night games, with some interesting matchups to dissect. It's not the deepest slate of pitching we've ever had, but we still have a few options we love. Let's start there.
Pitching
Dylan Cease, SD vs. OAK ($10,300)
Cease has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he's quietly having an amazing season in San Diego. Despite struggling the last few weeks, Cease has a 3.51 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 rate. That strikeout stuff has made him an elite DFS option throughout his career, scoring at least 16 DraftKings points in 10 of his 13 starts. Another such outing should be easy to duplicate in a home matchup against Oakland, with the A's ranked 28th or 29th in on-base percentage (OBP), runs scored and strikeout rate. All of that has Cease entering this matchup as a -210 favorite.
Logan Gilbert, SEA vs. CWS ($9,800)
Gilbert's 3-4 record does not indicate how special he has been, generating a 3.12 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He's posted those absurd averages despite an eight-run shelling. Gilbert has allowed one run or fewer in seven of his 13 starts. We believe another one of those is in play against this woeful White Sox offense, with Chicago sitting last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. We also don't mind Gilbert is in Safeco Field, amassing a 3.03 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 rate there this year. We didn't even mention Gilbert is a -225 favorite in this magical matchup.
Chris Paddack, MIN vs. COL ($7,100)
I've had Paddack in many of my streamer articles this weekend. This matchup is a major reason why. To say Colorado can't hit on the road would be an understatement, with the Rockies ranked last in runs scored and OPS on the road in three of the last four years. They're not quite there yet, but they still rank 28th in strikeout rate and last in xwOBA. Paddack's season-long numbers don't look pretty, but three nightmarish starts against the Yanks and O's have killed them. If you exclude those two duds against two of the best offenses, Paddack has a 3.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 rate. That's why he's a -215 favorite.
Top Targets
Fernando Tatis Jr., SD (vs. Joey Estes) $5,500
This man has always been one of the best per-game producers in fantasy and he's amid one of his sensational stretches. The outfielder is in the middle of a 14-game hitting streak, generating a .468 OBP and 1.117 OPS in that span. He's done that without showcasing his elite power-speed combo. Tatis is averaging nearly 40 homers and 30 steals per 150 games played. We don't want to fade him against an inexperienced pitcher like Estes, which we'll dive into later.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR (vs. Colin Rea) $5,000
The power stroke hasn't quite been there for Guerrero this season, but this slugger is starting to get hot. Over his last 30 games played, Guerrero has a .451 OBP and .973 OPS. That's what we've been waiting to see. He should continue that hot stretch against Rea. The Brewers righty has a surprising 3.53 ERA, but his 5.54 xERA and 1.34 WHIP indicate he's due for some negative regression. We also don't mind a full-on Toronto stack, with Bo Bichette ($4,500), Davis Schneider ($4,700) and George Springer ($3,800) all in play.
Bargain Bats
Alex Bregman, HOU (vs. Kyle Harrison) $4,200
Bregman was one of the worst bats through the year's opening month, but he's been scorching for a few weeks now. The former All-Star has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games, generating a .442 OBP and 1.288 OPS in that span. That's the stud we've become accustomed to, making him tough to fade against a lefty. Bregman has a .371 OBP and .863 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor throughout his career. We also love the matchup because Harrison has a 5.88 ERA and 1.79 WHIP across his last five starts. With Harrison's recent struggles, we also would use Jose Altuve ($5,100), Jeremy Pena ($4,100) and Yainer Diaz ($3,700) in a Houston stack. All have the platoon advantage against a lefty.
Trevor Larnach, MIN (vs. Dakota Hudson) $4,000
Minnesota changes their lineup more than almost any team in baseball, but it's because they have so many solid platoon players. Larnach thrives when they face a right-hander, batting leadoff in those circumstances. It's easy to see why he sees that bump in the lineup, tallying a .330 OBP and .774 OPS against righties since the start of last season. That's all you can ask for from such an affordable player. We'll dive into Hudson's numbers below.
Stacks to Consider
Minnesota Twins vs. (Dakota Hudson): Royce Lewis ($5,900), Max Kepler ($4,500), Trevor Larnach ($4,000)
We could use almost any offense against Colorado. The Rockies rank last in ERA and WHIP, with Hudson adding to those awful averages. The righty has a 5.25 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. You might think it's a Coors Field issue, but Hudson has a 5.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road over the last three years.
We already discussed Larnach as the leadoff hitter but Lewis is the best of the bunch. This star has had difficulty staying on the field, but he has a .412 OBP, .933 slugging percentage (SLG) and 1.345 OPS through five games this season. That's a small sample size but his .367 career OBP and .937 OPS is no fluke. Kepler is always a top-notch option for the Twins when they face a righty, registering a .787 OPS against them throughout his career. That's why he typically bats cleanup. These three make for a surprisingly affordable stack.
San Diego Padres vs. (Joey Estes): Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,500), Jake Cronenworth ($4,300), Jurickson Profar ($4,200)
Estes has been much better over his last two starts, but this rookie still has a 5.35 career ERA. He had a 7.47 ERA before his two most recent outings, which is more indicative of the guy we saw in the minors. The righty had a 5.61 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at Triple-A over the last two years. That's typical for any Oakland pitcher with the way they're tanking, and San Diego should be able to add to those numbers after scoring 26 runs in their weekend series.
With the Padres playing so well, we love Tatis as our favorite play of the day. Cronenworth is expected to bat third for San Diego, collecting a .344 OBP and .844 OPS against righties this season. Profar has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, hitting fourth or fifth for the Padres. He's earned that promotion behind his .419 OBP and .910 OPS this season, flirting with a 1.000 OPS over the last month.
