This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
What a Friday night for baseball. I'll be (weather permitting) at the Red Sox-Astros game at Fenway, but that is just one of the 13 MLB games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Let's get to my DFS recommendations to help you get your lineups set.
Pitching
Jack Flaherty, LAD vs. PIT ($10,500): Flaherty put up a 2.95 ERA across 18 starts with the Tigers, earning him a move to a World Series contender. In his first start for the Dodgers, he went six shutout innings, tallying seven strikeouts and allowing only one walk. Sure, that was against the Athletics, but the Pirates have a .671 OPS as a team, lower than the Athletics' .697 OPS.
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. NYM ($8,900): Miller at home is an intriguing DFS option. As a rookie, he was solid at home, posting a 3.65 ERA. This year, though, his home ERA is down to 2.27. Seattle is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and Miller is a sterling example of that. Of course, that means it can also tamp down offenses. The Mets are in the top 10 in runs scored, but in Seattle, against the home version of Miller, I'm not too worried.
Jameson Taillon, CHC at CWS ($8,200): The Cubs have had a disappointing season, but their across-town rivals the White Sox are having one of the worst seasons in MLB history, especially offensively. Taillon has a 3.25 ERA through 19 starts, but his 20th start is coming against a team with a collective .617 OPS. I can't remember seeing a team OPS that low.
Top Targets
Simply stealing 59 bases in 112 games would suffice, but Elly De La Cruz ($6,300) has also hit 20 homers and has a .355 OBP for good measure. The switch-hitting shortstop has surged largely because of a .941 OPS against righties. Aaron Civale had a 5.07 ERA with the Rays, and things have gotten worse with the Brewers. Across five starts he has a 5.40 ERA.
It's been a down year for Austin Riley ($5,500), and many Atlanta hitters, but he's been better recently. He has an .887 OPS over the last three weeks. Additionally, his drop off this year was almost exclusively against lefties, against whom he used to rake. He has an .827 OPS against righties. Oh, and he's at Coors Field on Friday. Tanner Gordon may start for the Rockies, and if he does start as expected, he has let righties hit .413 against him. Yes, it's only been four starts, but that's still remarkable.
Bargain Bats
At this point, Jurickson Profar ($5,100) has been productive long enough to qualify as having sustained it for a full season, for all intents and purposes. Plus, he's not slowing down, as he has a .956 OPS over the last three weeks. Edward Cabrera is a strikeout machine, but he still has a 5.96 ERA and has allowed 1.86 homers per nine innings. Yeah, all those strikeouts aren't cutting it for him.
For a while, Rockies veteran Charlie Blackmon ($4,500), 38, has been a guy who hits at home, but otherwise is not really a viable DFS option. This year, for example, he has an .852 OPS at Coors but a .611 OPS on the road. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has a 4.04 ERA for Atlanta, and while he's allowed fewer homers on the road, obviously most road starts haven't been at Coors Field.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies at Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson): Kyle Schwarber ($5,600), Alec Bohm ($4,800), Nick Castellanos ($3,900)
Usually, Arizona's ballpark is good for pitchers…usually. Nelson is a different story. In his career, Nelson has a 3.56 ERA on the road. Not great but serviceable. At home, though, he has a 6.44 ERA. Additionally, in his career he has allowed lefties to hit .266, but righties have hit .284 against him, so I have two righties in this stack.
Schwarber has a track record of getting locked in at the plate, which has been the case recently. He has an 1.201 OPS over the last three weeks. Also, while he likely won't make it the third season in a row in which he's hit more than 45 homers, he has 24 home runs in 102 games, and eight in his last 12 outings. Bohm only has 12 homers, but he's hit 41 doubles. He has an .875 OPS on the road and, atypically, he's hit his fellow righties well. This year, the third baseman has an .843 OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Castellanos had had a tough season, but he has an .891 OPS over the last three weeks. As I noted, righties have hit .284 against Nelson, and so I decided to go with Castellanos.
Royals vs. Cardinals (Miles Mikolas): Bobby Witt ($6,400), Salvador Perez ($5,100), Michael Massey ($4,000)
This is Mikolas' sixth season with the Cardinals, whom he joined after pitching overseas. It will be his fifth season of allowing fewer than two walks per nine innings, but also his fifth season striking out fewer than seven batters per nine innings. Given his 5.12 ERA in 2024, clearly all those opportunities to make contact for opposing hitters are paying off. This season lefties are hitting .270 against him, while righties are teeing off to the tune of a collective .289 average, so I've leaned that way.
Witt is pushing for AL MVP, and this scenario is exactly the kind of fuel that fire needs. He has an 1.014 OPS versus his fellow righties and also an 1.194 OPS at home. As a catcher who has hit at least 20 homers in each full MLB season since 2015, Perez is established as a top producer at a position not always known for offensive firepower. He also has a .279 average, so it's not all-or-nothing with Perez. The lefty Massey has 10 homers and 10 doubles, but that's in only 58 games. Notably, he's been much better at home, where he's posted an .839 OPS.
