This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
With a full slate of games on the Fourth of July, we also have a full schedule of night games Wednesday. That leaves us with 11 matchups to work with. Despite that, it's a relatively weak night for pitchers, particularly with a few of the better options currently in bad form. Some positive hitting environments include Yankee Stadium, Truist Park, Kaufmann Stadium and especially Coors Field.
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler ($9,800) is the second-highest priced pitcher on the slate and stands out thanks to his matchup against the Cubs. In the last 30 days, the Cubs have only a .299 wOBA and are striking out at a 25.4 percent clip – the fourth-highest mark in that span.
I'd be willing to drop down several tiers from Wheeler for some SP2 options, but Gavin Stone ($8,500) is viable at a slight discount from the bigger names. His skills don't stand out positively, but he has excellent team context with the Dodgers. He also showed some unexpected upside with a 40.9-point DraftKings performance in his last start. Arizona has picked it up as a lineup of late, so don't expect that, but 15-to-20 DraftKings points seem like a safe bet.
Moving down a bit further, there are a few intriguing options at around the $7,000 range. The Royals have slowed down considerably, and Ryan Pepiot ($7,100) has the second-highest strikeout rate among pitchers with a reasonable sample. Davis Daniel ($7,500) is at least worth mentioning. He had an electric big-league debut and now draws the A's. I wouldn't bet on him in the long term. In a one-game sample against one of the weakest lineups in the league, however, he's worth a shot.
There isn't a great option below the $7,000 threshold. Joey Estes ($6,000) would be my choice as he's shown upside but has a wide range of outcomes. The Angels are a mediocre lineup that can be shut down, making him an okay punt.
Top Hitters
It's been a while since Byron Buxton ($4,400) has had a lot of positive attention, but he deserves some love for his recent run. He has a 1.293 OPS and .865 slugging percentage in his last 10 games and now draws a matchup against the unproven Keider Montero.
Julio Rodriguez ($5,000) has hardly performed like a top hitter, but he does have a chance to deliver Wednesday night. He and the Mariners will draw Dean Kremer in his first start back from the injured list (IL), during which he struggled. Kremer has also given up 1.80 HR/9 this season.
Value Bats
Carlos Rodon has given up five home runs across his last two starts. He's a talented enough pitcher that he should figure out a solution, but in the short term, it's worth playing some hitters against him. That's particularly true in a positive hitting environment. That leads us to Tyler Stephenson ($3,600), who is typically a fixture in the fifth spot in the lineup and owns a .200 ISO against lefties on the season.
We're dealing in very limited samples, but David Festa was hit hard in his big-league debut, surrendering seven hard-hit balls and a 15 percent barrel rate. The Tigers aren't very stackable and don't have much star power in their lineup, but Wenceel Perez ($3,600) is a decent option as a cheap leadoff hitter.
Stacks to Consider
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres (Adam Mazur): Marcus Semien ($5,100), Josh Smith ($4,200), Wyatt Langford ($4,000)
The Rangers have endured a disappointing season overall, and their lineup has underperformed relative to the name value. However, they've shown signs of turning things around of late, as they have a .335 wOBA with only a 20.4 percent strikeout rate in the last 14 days. Mazur should be a gift of a matchup to keep that going. He has a -5.8 K-BB%, with the only saving grace being that he has done a decent job limiting hard contact.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies (Dakota Hudson): Joey Ortiz ($4,800), Christian Yelich ($6,300), Willy Adames ($5,600)
The Coors stack let us down Tuesday night in what looked to be a can't-miss spot on paper, but that's baseball. It's time to come right back to one of the best hitting environments in the game, as Hudson is similar to Mazur in that he has only a 0.3 K-BB% and a 5.84 ERA (5.53 SIERA). Milwaukee is only a mediocre lineup against lefties for the season, but the top of their order offers a nice combination of value (Ortiz), on-base ability (Yelich) and pop (Adames).
