This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
ALCS/NLCS Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, October 17
- Year-to-Date Record: 178-176
- Prior Article: 1-2 ( -1.15 units)
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MLB Postseason Betting Tips
PITCHING IMPACT
A lower run-scoring environment means you want to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed and over strikeouts. Avoid laying -1.5 runs unless it is an extreme situation.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game in the regular season. In the postseason it goes down as teams have a day off between games. Bullpens are critical to postseason success and should be heavily taken into consideration.
HITTER PROPS
Be careful with hitter props because every team is throwing their best pitchers. We are dealing with some of the best MLB teams. I will look only at home run + runs + RBI props on a top-four hitter in the playoffs.
Before visiting the best online sportsbooks and placing your wagers, make a quick stop first to our MLB odds page for the latest odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
New York Yankees 
at Cleveland Guardians 
The Guardians are down 2-0. Game 3 is critical for them to stay alive in this series. In the last four games. between these two teams, all in New York, the total runs are 25-6 in favor of the Yankees. But the Guardians have been significantly better at home all season.
Clarke Schmidt and Matthew Boyd have both been solid in their last seven starts as Schmidt has a 3.41 ERA and Boyd a 2.12 ERA. Both starting pitchers had one start against this opponent but the Boyd start was on August 20th with mixed results.
While the Guardians are much better at home, the Yankees have hit better on the road also. In the rare instances Cleveland is a home underdog, the totals have been 7-2-1 to the over, but they are 7-2-1 to the under in their last 10 overall at home.
I look at this game and feel both teams will be able to put up some runs. I have it projected for nine runs and too close to give a winner on the side. The 5:08 pm EST start time does help on the over with the temperatures projected to be in the 50s.
I do like Jose Ramirez to hit for two or more total bases at plus-money. His home numbers are much stronger than his road ones with a 155 wRC+ versus 128.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Guardians
- Yankees/Guardians Over 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-122 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases for 1 Unit (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Get the latest MLB odds and then make your way to the best online sportsbooks to place some bets.
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at New York Mets 
This has been an interesting series with lopsided results as the Dodgers won Game 1 and Game 3 by a combined score of 17-0. The Mets have been the best team in baseball since June 1st and are still on a very strong 18-7 run in their last 25 home games.
Jose Quintana has also been on a strong run. I have been on the right side of him for most of his last seven starts. He is 4-1 with a 0.66 ERA along with 40 strikeouts in that stretch. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has not pitched well recently as he can not go more than five innings. His lack of strikeouts (three in his last eight innings) is a huge concern.
I will lean on the strength of the Mets' starting pitching and home record to even up the series tonight 2-2.
MLB Picks for Dodgers at Mets
- Mets ML for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook +120)
- Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Yankees/Guardians Over 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-122 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases for 1 Unit (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mets ML for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook +120)
- Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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