This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 4-0, +4.08 RWBucks
Season: 49-63, -21.10 RWBucks
I can't lie...when my night started with Shane Bieber allowing Billy Hamilton to take him to the wall for three two-out runs, I was more than a little concerned. When Stephen Strasburg called for the trainer after four pitches, I was downright worried. When Kyle Hendricks completely lost it, allowing three runs on six pitches to fall behind...let's just say for all that to turn into a 4-0 night felt pretty good.
Today's slate is unusually slight for a Wednesday, with just 12 games, four during the day, two of those already rained out. There's still some value out there. If there is a theme to tonight's picks, it's that they all have me betting base skills, underlying principles, as opposed to granular game-specific information.
7 p.m. Twins (Randy Dobnak) -148 over Orioles (Matt Harvey)
The Orioles snapped a 14-game losing streak by rocking Michael Pineda, a surprise given no team in the AL is worse against right-handed pitching than the O's are. Let's figure they can't out-run their base rate - an 80 wRC+, including a .283 OBP -- two nights in a row and take the better team at a reasonable price. 1.5 RWBucks.
8 p.m. Red Sox (Nick Pivetta)/Astros (Framber Valdez) over 9 (-105)
Two of the best offensive teams in the AL (first and fourth by wOBA) left a 9-6 game on the bases last night thanks to a 2-for-15 line with runners in scoring position. The Astros got two perfect innings from a bullpen the Padres scored 100 runs against over the weekend, too. They'll get another chance tonight, as Nick Pivetta carries his slow decline (April: 2.81 ERA, May: 4.82 ERA) into Houston. Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros, but after a 72-pitch debut likely won't work deep into this game, either, as he returns from a finger injury. Look for some late runs to carry this bet over. 1 RWBuck.
8:40 p.m. Rangers (Jordan Lyles)/Rockies (Antonio Senzatela) over 11 (-114)
We've been here before with Senzatela, who has one of the highest contact rates of any rotation starter in the majors. Coors Field should be a place that hurts him, but so far this season he's allowed just a .270 BA, .375 SLG, and .305 BABIP in seven starts at altitude. These two teams are pretty miserable offensively, playing a 3-2 11-inning contest last night, but I have to come back to first principles. Even with a humidor, Coors Field is still one of the best hitters' parks in baseball history, and both Senzatela and Lyles will allow contact. 1 RWBuck.
