This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-5, -4.93 RWBucks
Season: 41-60, -24.67 RWBucks
Spin the Wheel of RISP, land on Bankrupt, lose your turn.
Onward...
Let's switch it up today. Here at Rotowire, we have an entire page of available props from sites like BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Prop betting is time-intensive, and is best practiced once you know the day's lineups. That's not to say you can't make money at it; while as with all exotic markets, the limits are of more interest to recreational bettors than sharps, finding edges is still possible. It is, in some ways, better geared to daily fantasy players who are already grinding individual statistics rather than team performance.
Perhaps more to the point, they're fun, and a way to have a lot of low-stakes action. That sounds tout-y, and I don't mean it that way. I guess I'm conscious of the "fun" aspect of baseball betting right now as I type this on a short working vacation, a bit more interested in a dozen small sweats to pair with a drink or two than in grinding out a .3% edge while getting mad at the Red Sox for squandering run expectancy.
There are 11 games tonight, which means hundreds of opportunities to bet on what players will do across the league. Let's dig on them, using the lines at DraftKings, for a change of pace.
6:40 p.m. Javier Baez to hit HR +350
Pirates starter Wil Crowe was the payment for Josh Bell this winter, and the team has some investment in seeing him succeed. So far, Crowe has a 4.91 ERA in 25 2/3 innings, with performance that doesn't match even that meager output. Crowe has allowed an expected SLG of .465 and an expected ERA of 5.22. He's allowed five homers, at least one in three of four starts. Leaning more than ever on his four-seam fastball, he's found success with it, while his secondaries have been hammered. That's a good matchup for Baez, a pitcher choosing between effective fastballs and poor breaking stuff. The +350 number is very low, but on a damp night in Pittsburgh, we can get behind El Mago and his free-swinging ways. .5 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Domingo German over 5.5 strikeouts (+128)
German had a five-start stretch of exactly six strikeouts in each start snapped last time out in a game in which he struck out five in seven innings. The barrier here is often not the pitcher, but the defense; a couple of double plays, a hit turned into an out, and the opportunities for whiffs can disappear quickly. Going against the grain here, as the Jays have the second-best strikeout rate against righties in the AL. However, Aaron Boone will need some innings tonight after Corey Kluber's short start, and German has shown he can go seven. .75 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Josh Bell over -.5 RBI (+120)
Jeff Hoffman has allowed a .341 OBP so far this year, .374 to lefties. He's walked about 12% of the batters he's faced. Look for Bell to bat with a total of five to six men on in front of him today, providing more than enough opportunity for the single RBI we need. 1 RWBuck.
7 p.m. Cameron Maybin under 0.5 hits (+118)
At Triple-A and in the majors, Maybin is 4-for-60, including 0-for-21 in the majors. I'm not sure what Maybin's true talent is right now, but "completely done" is certainly in his range. I'll stand in front of this train tonight with German Marquez, who has struck out 27 right-handed batters while allowing just 19 hits to them. 1 RWBuck.
Note: All props require that the player starts the game for action.
7:40 p.m. Chris Paddack over 5.5 strikeouts (-106)
The Brewers' side of this is pretty solid, as they have the second-highest strikeout rate against righties in the NL. Paddack has been handled very carefully, maxing out at 95 pitches and no more than 91 this month. His last time out he beat up a bad Mariners lineup, whiffing six in six innings. The risk here isn't performance, it's Paddack striking out five of the 19 batters he faces and then being hit for in the bottom of the sixth. .75 RWBucks.
