This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous Article: 1-3, -2.65 RW Bucks
Season: 9-10, -1.81 RW Bucks
Betting on sports can humble you real quick, you can go 0-5 and then 5-0 and feel real good but then another 1-4 day sets you straight. My early thinking about a low run-scoring environment has panned out as runs, home runs are down significantly vs. a year ago over the same period. Only nine teams have a 50% or higher record of going over the run total. I am focusing on teams that draw walks, make contact, and take good swings. The Indians and Cubs are two teams that have excelled in all three early on.
I have also noticed sportsbooks have already adjusted run totals down by about 0.5 runs on average. I still think there is value in playing unders, you just need to be more selective.
Another key point is we are starting to see a lot of injuries. Keep an eye on lineups and how this will impact the outcome of games. Again, leaning towards the under will be the play. I have also noticed that teams in pitchers' parks are doing well on the run line (-1.5 runs).
Los Angeles Angels 
vs. Houston Astros 
8:10 pm EDT (Astros -155, opened -140; Total: 8, opened 8.5)
Patrick Sandoval vs. Framber Valdez
The total has dropped from 8.5 to 8 and the money line has moved from -140 to 155 based on speculation that Mike Trout will be out tonight along with the Astros not hitting like their normal selves thus far.
Even though the Astros have not been scoring, I am going to lay the -1.5 here as I do think Trout will sit, or at least we know the hand is not 100%.
The Angels' offensive numbers are a bit inflated as they beat up on the awful Rangers bullpen. Valdez is a sneaky candidate for the AL Cy Young award and with the difference in starting pitching and no Trout, I am surprised at -155. Valdez faced the Angels on 4/7 and tossed a gem, going 6.2 innings with 6 strikeouts, 1 walk, and no earned runs.
BET – Astros -1.5 for 1 RW buck (+140 FanDuel)
Philadelphia Phillies 
vs. Colorado Rockies 
8:40 pm EDT
The Rockies' home dominance from 2021 looks to have carried over into this year and their lineup is much better in my opinion. I will look for any opportunity to take the Rockies on the money line at home if they are close to even money or a slight dog. Especially when the pitching matchups are relatively even. They were second in baseball with 5.63 runs per game at home last year and are 7th overall in 2022 at 5.0.
BET – Rockies for 1 RW buck (+120 FanDuel)
BET – Rockies to score 1st run for 1 RW buck (+145)
Cincinnati Reds 
vs. San Diego Padres 
9:40 pm EDT (Padres -190, opened -180; Total: 7.5, opened 8)
Reiver Sanmartin vs. Joe Musgrove
The Reds are probably going to be without their best hitter Jonathan India again, which accounts for the movement on the total. The Reds are just 2-9 and have lost 7 in a row while scoring a total of 10 runs in their last 6 games. This is a case where getting the better number is huge as the total was 8 and moved to 7.5. I'm not a huge fan of under 7.5 when one team is so bad, but the Padres are 9-3 to the under in 12 games.
BET – Reds under 2.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+110)
BET – Under 7.5 for 1.1 RW buck (-110 DraftKings)
Baltimore Orioles 
vs. Oakland A's 9:40 pm EDT
The Orioles have gone under the total in all 10 games and now get one of the best pitcher parks in baseball. They have scored two runs or less in seven out of 10 games.
I will continue to go under on the Orioles until I see some fundamental changes in their hitting approach. Add in the A's COVID mess and we get a strong under play.
BET – Under 8.5 runs for 1.18 RW buck (-118 FanDuel)
BET - Orioles under 3.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (-115 BetMGM)
BONUS BET - 4 team parlay for 0.1 units to pay +18.9 units (FanDuel)
Astros -1.5 +140, Rockies +120, Padres -1.5 +104, A's/Orioles under 8.5 -118
