This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Props for
Wednesday, July 3
2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-5 (-2.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 17-19 (-2.56 RW Bucks)
We're set for an evening/night slate on 4th of July Eve, and I've identified a quartet of props – three at very favorable prices – involving three hitters that I feel could capitalize on favorable matchups.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Best Bets
We'll start with what may look like a counterintuitive bet on the surface, but one that would pay quite nicely if it hits.
The Cubs' Cody Bellinger has picked up steam over the last couple of months, swatting away any talk of a regression after a strong 2023 campaign by posting a .298 average and .726 OPS over the last month of play (114 plate appearances). Bellinger has been especially impressive at Wrigley over that span, posting a .318 average and .404 OBP with a very modest 13.5-percent strikeout rate in his home park.
Wednesday, the veteran slugger draws what has actually been a very favorable matchup for him over the years against Zack Wheeler, whom he's tagged for five hits – all homers – and 10 RBI across 13 career encounters. Additionally, 18 of the 30 hits Bellinger has mustered against right-handed pitching this season have gone for extra bases.
Wheeler isn't naturally someone we'd pick on, but the history and Bellinger's recent performance at Wrigley along with this price makes the bet an appealing one in longer-shot terms. Additionally, Wheeler has had trouble with left-handed hitters on the road, pitching to a .573 slugging percentage and .395 wOBA in that split while allowing 11 extra-base hits (out of 19 total).
MLB Picks for Phillies vs. Cubs
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Best Bets
Any Coors Field matchup that features a suspect starting pitcher is naturally one that's ripe to consider for hitter props, and such is the case Wednesday. Colorado will trot out Dakota Hudson, who's sitting on a 2-11 record, 5.84 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the season, and who sports an 8.58 ERA, 2.13 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 at home specifically.
Hudson, as has frequently been the case throughout his career, has also struggled with left-handed hitters. The veteran righty has allowed a .417 average and .515 wOBA to lefty bats at Coors, a sample where he's also pitched to a 2.8 HR/9. What's more, he's struggled with the Brewers' Christian Yelich throughout his career, surrendering a .417 average to him with four extra-base hits over 20 encounters.
Meanwhile, Yelich, who's in the midst of a resurgent season, checks in on a heater that's seen him produce a .378 average and .966 OPS in his last nine games. That span includes 23 combined hits, runs and RBI, as well as four multi-hit efforts. For the season, Yelich has compiled 22 multi-hit games and averaged exactly 2.5 hits + runs + RBI per contest.
Factoring in the talented veteran owns a .338 average and .924 OPS against right-handed pitching and Rockies relievers have pitched to a .330 BAA and MLB-high .385 wOBA against lefty hitters at home since June 1, and we have rock-solid case for a couple of Yelich props.
MLB Picks for Brewers vs. Rockies
- Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Hits (+133 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Christian Yelich Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
The Diamondbacks have underachieved overall this season, and some starting pitcher injuries have played a part. Some current absences have led to a spot start for rookie Cristian Mena, who's being summoned for his first big-league action despite posting a 4.90 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at Triple-A Reno across 16 starts.
Mena has solid swing-and-miss stuff, but he's also proven hittable and has a 4.95 ERA in the 30 starts encompassing his last three minor-league stops overall. The young righty has an absolutely unenviable matchup for his MLB debut as well in the form of the Dodgers, who have a .335 wOBA against righties at home since June 1.
Shohei Ohtani is unquestionably the least palatable of an array of unfavorable matchups for Mena on Wednesday, as the all-world talent checks in with a .383 average and 1.450 OPS in his last 16 games. That span includes 20 RBI and eight multi-hit efforts overall. For the season, Ohtani boasts a .327 average and .482 wOBA against right-handed pitching at home.
There's naturally many ways we can go here with a prop for the prodigious slugger, including a HR bet, which is always in play. However, I'll keep it simple and go with one that actually has plus money despite the ease with which Ohtani could achieve it, that being a bet that backs him getting at least one single.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
- Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Total Singles (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Hits (+133 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Christian Yelich Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Total Singles (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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