This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, August 14
- Year-to-Date Record: 135-127-1
- Prior Article: 1-3 (-2.52 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Don't forget to use the most up-to-date MLB odds when placing bets on your favorite best sports betting sites.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Texas Rangers 
at Boston Red Sox 
This is becoming a daily ritual where I look at taking the over in the Red Sox game, especially when they are facing a mediocre right-handed pitcher, but also Tanner Houck has been struggling recently. Kutter Crawford turned things around last night until the fifth inning and we could see a similar outcome today.
This series has been an over fest with seven of the last games in the series scoring at least nine runs. The scheduled starter for the Rangers is now Dane Dunning, which makes this a bullpen game, and the Red Sox bullpen is cooked at this point.
MLB Picks for Rangers at Red Sox
- Rangers/Red Sox OVER 9.5 runs for 2 units (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves 
at San Francisco Giants 
I am always looking to play the under when the Giants are at home and we have a nice spot today. There are some strong trends in our favor with the Giants going under in 10 out of their last 14 at home. The season series has also been low scoring with all five games staying under eight runs. Both games in this series have gone extra innings and produced seven-run and one-run outings. An additional trend on the under with the series is it has gone 8-2 in the last 10 in San Francisco.
The key here is getting this number at 8.0 instead of 7.5, even if you have to pay some juice.
MLB Picks for Braves at Giants
- Braves/Giants UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oakland Athletics 
at New York Mets 
The A's may have nothing to play for and are 18 games under .500, but they can hit and hit lefties well. The A's have destroyed left-handed pitching to the tune of a 154 wRC+ since July 1. They are 14-11 overall against left-handed starters and 18-12 in their last 30.
The Mets are starting to fade, going 3-7 in their last 10 and they dropped the opener in this series 9-4 last night. David Peterson barely has a 2:1 K:BB ratio and the A's will punish him allowing baserunners with the long ball. His expected numbers also scream regression with a 3.34 ERA, but a 5.42 xERA.
MLB Picks for Athletics at Mets
- Athletics OVER 3.5 runs for 2 units (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Rangers/Red Sox OVER 9.5 runs for 2 units (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Braves/Giants UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Athletics OVER 3.5 runs for 2 units (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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