This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Sunday, September 29
- Year-to-Date Record: 165-165-1
- Prior Article: 2-2 ( -0.55 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Find out what the current and best MLB odds are before placing your bets on the best online sportsbooks.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Tampa Bay Rays 
at Boston Red Sox 
The trend in this series used to be the Rays owning the Red Sox in Tampa, but now the trend is the Rays owning them in Boston. The Rays are 9-1 straight up against the Red Sox in Boston over the last 10 games.
Neither team has anything to play for and that is why the Red Sox called up Quinn Priester, who they acquired from the Pirates in the Nick Yorke trade. Priester has been okay at Triple-A Worcester, but the walks are his problem. I think he goes five innings max in this game.
Ryan Pepiot has been good for the Rays and is coming off a very strong performance against the Red Sox on September 18, where he struck out 12 and walked none. This Red Sox offense has been in a funk for most of the second half and has very little motivation today.
MLB Picks for Rays at Red Sox
- Rays ML for 1 Unit (-116 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
at New York Yankees 
Even though the Pirates scored nine runs yesterday, this team has been dismal offensively. I have been going under on their team totals. Clarke Schmidt has been the most reliable and consistent Yankees starter, but he could be on a short leash here. Even still, this Pirates offense has been dead last in runs scored per game (2.3) in the last 14 days.
MLB Picks for Pirates at Yankees
- Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
The Padres have nothing to play for, but the Diamondbacks are still alive in the National League Wild Card hunt, albeit with some help. The Padres have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star break and look to be ready for a deep run in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks have crumbled down the stretch and now pitch a guy in Brandon Pfaadt, who has gotten lit up over his last seven starts with an 8.53 ERA.
Martin Perez has always been a guy who outperforms his metrics as his 2.80 ERA against just 28 strikeouts and 13 walks in his last seven starts will attest. But the Padres have the best bullpen in baseball and he only needs to go five innings.
The Padres would like nothing more than to stick the fork in the Diamondbacks and send them home.
MLB Picks for Padres at Dbacks
- Padres ML for 1 Unit (+180 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Rays ML for 1 Unit (-116 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Padres ML for 1 Unit (+180 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
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