This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, June 14
YTD 94-91-1
Prior article 2-4 ( -3.03 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we are in the middle of June, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Pittsburgh Pirates 
at Colorado Rockies
Ryan Feltner and Coors Field do not mesh well as the OVER has hit six times in a row in his starts. His numbers in his last four starts at Coors are brutal – 9.16 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 12 strikeouts, 21 runs allowed in 18.2 innings. Luis Ortiz is the starting pitcher for the Pirates and has pitched well with a 2.61 ERA, 1.13 ERA and only one home run allowed in 38 innings. He is usually good for 3-4 innings, which plays into what I am looking to do in this game.
The total in the game ranges between 10.5 to 11.0, so shop around if you like the OVER. I am going to just focus on the Pirates' team total in this one, which is a little easier to hit versus a full-game team total of 6.0 or higher. The "race" wager is perfect for a spot like this where we have an even moneyline, but a decided pitching edge in a high-scoring environment.
MLB Picks for Pirates at Rockies
- Pirates first to 4.0 runs for 1.5 unit (BetRivers -107)
Miami Marlins 
at Washington Nationals 
This is just coincidence, but I have another "race to xx runs" that I like here. The problem is that not many books are offering F5 team totals right now, so this is another way to get there.
The Nationals are big favorites and I do not want to lay -1.5 with their bullpen. The focus on this game is MacKenzie Gore completely shutting down the Marlins' offense that is averaging just 2.4 runs per game over their last 10. The Nats get to face Shaun Anderson, who has not started a game since 2019.
Gore has taken a big step in 2024, and is looking like a future ace of the Nationals rotation.
MLB Picks for Marlins at Nationals
- Nationals first to score 4.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +100)
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Philadelphia Phillies 
at Baltimore Orioles 
It is hard to look at an UNDER with two of the best offensive teams in baseball that are both averaging 5.0 runs a game, but these two pitchers are incredible UNDER machines.
Ranger Suarez is 12-6-2 over his last 20 starts to the UNDER, and Kyle Bradish is 7-2-1 to the UNDER in his last 10. So I will focus on just these two starting pitchers and look at the F5 UNDER, which is just 3.5 runs.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Orioles
- Phillies/Orioles UNDER 3.5 F5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
Atlanta Braves 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
I do not get this game total being 8.5 at all. You have Chris Sale on the mound against the Rays and the Braves have scored the fewest runs in baseball over the last month. They are averaging just 3.6 runs per game since May 1 (38 games) and just 3.3 over their last 10. The Rays are not much better, averaging just 3.6 runs per game over their last 10. Chris Sale has allowed less than three earned runs in nine out of 12 starts.
I have this game total more in the 7.5 projected range, so there is great value on the UNDER at 8.5.
MLB Picks for Braves at Rays
- Rays/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Pirates first to 4.0 runs for 1.5 units (BetRivers -107)
- Nationals first to score 4.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +100)
- Phillies/Orioles UNDER 3.5 F5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Rays/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
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