This article is part of our MLB Best Ball series.
We've spent a lot of time in this series talking about the differences between traditional roto and category formats as compared to best ball. Underdog goes one step further than other best ball platforms in that its positional requirements ask you to start three infielders, three outfielders and one utility player rather than requiring a player at each specific position.
It's tempting to say there is no positional scarcity as a result, but one look at ADP will illustrate that's not the case. Each of the first eight picks by ADP is an outfielder. In contrast, the eighth infielder doesn't come off the board until an ADP of 20.5 and the eighth pitcher an ADP of 35.6. That creates a buying opportunity to draft infielders and pitchers at strong value early on, but the result will be largely unsatisfying choices to fill the outfield with later selections. The other possibility is to keep positional scarcity in mind while pushing outfielders up the board, potentially leaving holes in the infield. In either scenario, rosters may end up unintentionally (or intentionally) tilted towards an extreme build.
With that in mind, the purpose of this article will be to identify late-round value in both the infield and outfield to account for different types of team builds.
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Infield Values
Jonathan India – ADP 176.5
India is coming off a disappointing second season that was derailed mostly by a foot injury. He's since entered spring training healthy and has already accrued 17 at-bats (through Thursday). While results don't necessarily matter, he's struck out just once and also has two stolen bases. For context, entering this season, India had attempted only three stolen bases across his last 78 spring training at-bats.
Volume will also be on India's side. Even if he doesn't return to the heights of his 2021 season, he'll be a lock for an everyday role in the lineup and is projected to hit in the top two of the Cincinnati order.
Specific to Underdog, India is currently the 57th infielder off the board. According to the RotoWire cheatsheet, he's projected to finish as the 47th-best infielder. That a significant gap, and there's arguably even more upside in India's profile due to his certain role and excellent home park.
Justin Turner – ADP 193.6
Turner's situation became more complicated after he was hit in the face by a pitch during a spring training game Monday. While he may not return to additional spring training action, Turner is projected to be ready for Opening Day.
From a skills perspective, there's no doubt that his potential power production is diminishing, which is little surprise given that he's entering his age-38 season. A shift from Dodger Stadium to Fenway Park won't help his cause in that area, as the former has Statcast's third-ranked park factor for home runs and the latter 12th. However, what the new park will do is offer Turner the chance to play to his strengths, which include making a lot of contact and making relatively hard contact. Per Statcast, Turner was in the 82nd percentile in xBA, 65th percentile in chase rate, and 75th percentile in xWOBA in 2022. Meanwhile, Fenway Park was first in promoting doubles, fifth in promoting triples and second in promoting hits.
Turner's profile isn't all that exciting in traditional category leagues because he doesn't hit for power and he doesn't steal bases, but the progressive scoring on Underdog rewards him for extra-base knocks where the traditional formats do not. Finally, Turner has surpassed 600 plate appearances just once since the 2016 campaign. Two things should help him have the chance to do so in 2023. First, he should be locked into the designated hitter role rather than also playing third base, which gives him a greater chance of staying healthy. In addition, the Red Sox lineup doesn't boast the same depth as the Dodgers lineup did in previous years, meaning the team will be more reliant upon Turner to produce offense and won't necessarily be able to give him regular days off.
Jorge Polanco - ADP 149.9
Polanco is a straightforward bounceback candidate based on health after he missed the final month of the 2022 season due to knee tendinitis. There's no specific information available as to when the knee issue started to bother Polanco and affect his performance, but he posted a 128 wRC+ and .346 wOBA in the first half of the season — near identical marks to his superb 2021 season — before falling off in the second half. The likelihood that his skills evaporated at the age of 28 is slim, and importantly, he's reportedly back to full strength after spending the offseason receiving treatment in both the United States and the Dominican Republic. One thing to monitor is that Polanco has yet to participate in any Grapefruit League games (through March 9), though that decision has reportedly come out of precaution rather than a setback. If news emerges otherwise, or Polanco's absence from games continues, there's reason to worry. Otherwise, take the four-round discount on Polanco compared to his ADP from 2022 drafts.
Outfield Values
Andrew Vaughn - ADP 163.1
The case for Vaughn is a bit more narrative-driven than for the infielders listed before him. The departure of Jose Abreu has opened up the first base and designated hitter roles in Chicago, which Vaughn is projected to fill. As his positional eligibility indicates, he primarily played in the outfield in 2022, and did so to disastrous results. He accrued an abysmal -14 Defensive Runs Saved and measured in the first percentile in both outs above average and outfielder jump. Shifting full time to a less demanding defensive position won't improve Vaughn's offensive output by itself, but it should allow him to focus on his craft as a hitter. He's already shown promise in that regard, as he posted a 113 wRC+ in 2022 and struck out only 17.3 percent of the time. His hard-hit metrics are also excellent, and if he can learn to lift the ball more, he could be poised to join the elite power hitters in the league. Considering his pedigree, that shouldn't be considered an outlier outcome. Even if he doesn't take a leap forward, Vaughn is a reliable contributor and won't be a burden for teams at his current ADP.
Riley Greene – ADP 114.6
Greene also doesn't fit the mold of the rest of the players highlighted because his ADP is relatively inflated. Although he struggled more than anticipated in his 2022 debut, Greene showed an above-average ability to barrel the ball and generally hit the ball hard. His 28.7 percent strikeout rate is concerning and doesn't look likely to go away, as it was also inflated throughout his minor-league career. While we shouldn't take too much from spring training stats, it's worth noting Greene has struck out only three times in 21 at-bats this spring. The changes to Comerica Park could also have a significant positive impact on Greene's power from the left side, as the center field wall has been brought in by 10 feet and the right field walls dropped from 8.5 and 13 feet to seven.
Lourdes Gurriel – ADP 174.7
Gurriel's skills have consistently been superior to this ADP, but a series of lower-body injuries have greatly limited his plate appearances in every season since 2018. In 2022, he also played through a broken hamate in his hand, which caused his ISO to dip to .108. Previously, he'd never posted a mark below .165. It's possible he continues to suffer poor injury luck, but the price is right to take risk in Gurriel's case. That's particularly true in instances where drafters opt to bank the reliable stats of Francisco Lindor or Nolan Arenado rather than taking early injury risk on Luis Robert or Byron Buxton.
