MLB Barometer: Walking the Tightrope

Bidding on free agents in 12-team leagues is a true tightrope act. We put in the time to research all winter and form opinions on player pool and identify our endgame options. We would prefer to hang on to players whom we drafted in the later rounds and believe in. But what if a player comes along that we perceive to be marginally better? What factors do we consider when analyzing whether to drop our player for another player with whom someone else grew impatient?

We all have our drop-regret stories. Before the 2011 season, I believed in and drafted Michael Morse in the later rounds of the NFBC Main Event. I waited all April as he struggled and eventually gave up on my dream. The next two months, Morse slugged 14 homers en route to a 31-HR, 95-RBI season. In 2013, I gave up on Josh Donaldson after one week. I think you all know how that one turned out.

There's no way to really know whether we've dropped the big fish back into the ocean until it's too late. One thing we can certainly do is assess and project that free agent's playing time on our fantasy team based on the way our roster is constructed.

For example, Alex Rodriguez was dropped in two of my 12-team RotoWire NFBC OC's this week. He's off to a rough start, but we all know it's damn early. He's the cleanup hitter for the Yankees. One of the most productive hitters in the history of baseball, and he's gunning for 700 homers. He's pressing a bit, but we still have 23 weeks to go. On my OC that already has David Ortiz locked in my utility spot, it doesn't make much sense to bid big on ARod. I'll likely try to time those veterans each week based on matchups and could certainly get it wrong more often than right. Unless I'm purely looking to block others with a "keep it honest" bid (aka, The Erickson), I probably won't lock up one of my valuable bench spots with someone who may never see the light of my lineup.

Where ARod could fit is on my other OC where I don't have my utility spot locked in. Moreover, that team is constructed with a bit more speed than my others, and has more contact hitters who hit for plus average. So I can afford to grab a BA-drain like Rodriguez where I can use the pop.

Roster construction should factor into your decision with streaming pitchers, as well. I don't know about you, but I felt like I suckered myself into a Chase Anderson bid this week because he had two decent-looking starts on paper this week. I regretted the decision before Monday's games even began. The Twins hit much better at home, and you just knew that Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano and Byung-ho Park were due. Anderson is a fly-ball pitcher who had not given up an earned run entering the start. You could have almost predicted the outcome.

Streaming pitchers in 12-teamers is another tough walk along the tightrope. If you have faith in your "worst" starting pitcher, don't chase those marginal two-steps unless the option from the free-agent pool is someone you can see yourself owning long term. Two guys who may have been available this week who had two-start weeks and fit that "long-term" bill were J.A. Happ and Clay Buchholz. For me this week, that tough drop was Nathan Karns -- someone I liked in preseason and for whom I had to assess replacement options. There likely always will be a pitcher who is dropped into the free-agent pool who I think could be a better long-term fit. They become available and apparent each and every week. And the problem is that once your version of Karns throws that gem, he likely will be bid on by the field and not be as easily available to reclaim.

With those fringe starting pitchers, you always want to look ahead to their schedules over the next three weeks to see if you would use them in your starting lineup.

It's a constant balancing act. There's no problem with walking that tightrope if you're able to step away from your team for the macro view and rationally assess the free-agent addition with consideration to upcoming schedules, roster flexibility and team context.

RISERS

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C, DET)

Most folks will tell you to enjoy the ride while you can. That Saltalamacchia hit out of his mind last week (3 HR, 7 RBI) and that it's only a matter of time before the career .240 hitter falls into a 1-for-31 slump. Those folks are not wrong. It's hard to fathom that this free swinger was the backstop pickup du jour. The same guy who was DFA'd by the Marlins early last season. It's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that Salty starts two to three games a week when James McCann returns. But he probably won't keep the job outright. McCann is the future, and the Tigers' future is now. Saltalamacchia was a 2003 first-round draft pick who once slugged 25 homers in 448 PA, but he's still the same K-machine. He has struck out in approximately 40 percent of his at-bats through the first two weeks and averages a career strikeout rate of more than 30 percent. He has some tough matchups coming up against Royals and Indians pitchers this week, which likely will bring the average back down to his career norm. Salty is a decent fill-in for those who lost Nick Hundley temporarily, but that's about it. Don't expect him to set the fantasy world on fire.

Ian Kinsler (2B, DET)

Kinsler is annually underappreciated in draft leagues and auctions despite being one of baseball's most consistent producers the last few seasons. Kinsler has averaged 101 runs the last five seasons -- the only player in baseball to average triple-digit runs over that span. Moreover, Kinsler has at least 675 plate appearances in four of those seasons. You don't need me to tell you what kind of value Kinsler has leading off for a squad that is followed by Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez. Kinsler hasn't popped more than 20 homers since 2011, but is off to a nice start hitting three last week. He has recorded at least one hit in 10 of 11 games this year with hits in each of his last six games. He will never be the most exciting guy on your fantasy team, but solid players like him, Adrian Gonzalez and Daniel Murphy continue to go underrated each and every year and always seem to out-earn their deflated prices.

Aaron Sanchez (SP, TOR)

Early returns on the 23-year old hurler look promising. The Blue Jays considered using Sanchez out of the bullpen, but ultimately made what appears to be the right decision, naming him the team's fifth starter at the end of spring training. Sanchez has not disappointed, holding opponents to 10 hits through his first three starts (20 IP) and striking out 20. Sanchez relies primarily on a 95 mph four-seam fastball. His cutter and change up remain works in progress. Control has always been Sanchez's Achilles' heel as he averaged 4.9 walks-per-nine in the minors, 4.3 in 11 innings in his rookie year and, most recently, walked seven batters in starts against the Red Sox and Yankees. Sanchez is lucky to have a stellar offense behind him offering him much run support. He should be a fun pitcher to own in 2016 and beyond, but be mindful of the innings limit. At some point late this summer, Sanchez probably will be moved back into middle relief.

Jake Odorizzi (SP, TB)

The 2008 first-round pick of the Brewers was part of the 2010 trade involving Zack Greinke and Lorenzo Cain. In 2012, he was the key piece of the deal that sent James Shields and Wade Davis packing to the Royals. Odorizzi made impressive strides last year on his rookie year, managing a 3.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP along with a 22-percent strikeout rate. He got off to a nice start, twirling a gem and earning the win against the Blue Jays in his season debut (4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 10 K). Odorizzi then had a rough start against the Orioles (9H, 4 ER) and followed it up with another brilliant outing, shutting out the White Sox in seven innings but failing to win. Odorizzi has always relied on his fastball, throwing it more than 70 percent of the time in his career. He picked up a split-change called "the thing" from teammate Alex Cobb when he arrived in Tampa and it has worked well for him. This spring, he began perfecting a curveball to add an "out" pitch against right-handed batters, who he's counter-intuitively struggled against. Odorizzi plays in a tough division and may lack proper run support on most nights, but he has the talent and work ethic to be a perennial All-Star. But first, a tough matchup against the Red Sox this week.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Nick Castellanos (3B, DET)

Castellanos hit .345 last week with two HR, five runs and six RBI, getting to line up in the fifth spot behind J.D. Martinez on Victor Martinez's days off. He will be a serviceable corner infielder for fantasy teams, but don't expect a huge breakout. Note his 0:13 K:BB ratio to start the year and the 6.4 percent walk rate his first couple of years. Although he hit much lower in the order his first two years, he was unable to top 50 runs in either season despite 579 and 595 plate appearances. Keep your expectations in check (16 HR, 78 RBI) and don't expect much help in the other three categories.

Wilson Ramos (C, WAS)

Ramos hit .526 last week (10 for 19) and has been seeing the ball much better this spring following offseason LASIK surgery. The cons: Ramos doesn't walk much (less than 5 percent since his rookie year) and hits seventh in the lineup. The pros: he is one of the best pure hitting catchers in baseball. Ramos has hit at least 15 homers in three of four seasons healthy-"ish" seasons. He is pegged as a .260 hitter -- his career average -- but don't be shocked if he hits at least 20 points higher in 2016. Ramos has a legitimate shot to end the year as the second most productive National League catcher behind Buster Posey.

Kris Medlen (SP, KC)

Medlen deserves an immediate add if he's sitting in your free-agent pool in 12-team leagues, depending on your drop, of course. One of my favorite late-round targets this spring, Medlen has the league's best defense behind him and could be in line for a sneaky good season. His 2012 season was a storybook one (10-1, 1.57 ERA in 138 IP) and gives us a slight glimmer of his capabilities, despite that magic being virtually unrepeatable. Medlen missed all of 2014 after Tommy John surgery and threw only 58 IP last year, split between relief work and eight starts. Medlen has been mediocre over his first two starts (11.1 IP), walking eight batters but also striking out 11. As he continues to make starts and rebuilds his confidence, Medlen should get better as the season progresses.

Danny Salazar (SP, CLE)

Salazar may be peaking at the upper tier of starting pitchers this year if he can harness that erratic control. He dazzled in each of his first two starts, but neither opponent (White Sox, Rays) stood much of a chance. In 11.1 IP, he walked four and struck out 16. Next week, Salazar gets the Mariners at home, followed by a two-start week (weather permitting) against the Twins and Phillies on the road. Although he held the Twins to a .179 BA in three starts (19 IP) last year, the Twins are a much better offense at home, just hitting their stride and can really dink and dunk on opponents. Not like you're sitting Salazar, though. Salazar will contend for the AL lead in strikeouts this season.

FALLERS

Ben Zobrist (2B, CHC)

It was a rough week for Zobrist and his owners as he failed to record a hit in 18 at-bats and took to the pine for the Saturday tilt against the Rockies. There is definitely a bit of downside. At age 34, Zobrist's best days are clearly behind him. He isn't stealing bases like he used to and likely won't run often this season outside of the occasional opportunity. The lineup upside trumps everything, though. As fellow RotoWire writer Scott Jenstad pointed out Sunday, the Cubs are 9-3 while Zobrist is hitting .214, Anthony Rizzo .186, Kris Bryant .229, Jason Heyward .205 and Jorge Soler .235. What happens when the Cubbies actually start hitting? Sure, the Cubs could move Zobrist down in the lineup if he continues to run cold, but it's much more likely that he starts hitting soon. Despite the slump, manager Joe Maddon still batted Zobrist third for Sunday and Monday's games. Often, recent fallers of this column are our ideal targets. As long as Zobrist stays healthy and continues to hit in the middle of this lineup, he should produce a profit at his March ADP of 201. After a tough series against the Cardinals on the road, look for Zobrist to heat up in a four-game series against four dicey Cincinnati Reds' starting pitchers not named Raisel Iglesias.

Matt Duffy (3B, SF)

No one could blame you for being apprehensive about Duffy at his 154 ADP after coming out of nowhere last season. The 25-year-old Long Beach State product skipped Triple-A entirely and put together a solid line (77 R, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 12 SB, .295) hitting primarily out of the three-hole as a rookie. He started the season hot with two HR and six RBI in a three-game series against the Brewers but has hit .171 (6 for 35) with just two RBI over his last 10 games. Duffy admits to checking his swing more in the early going, which is uncharacteristic for him. His timing at the plate is off, but it's only a matter of time before it clicks. The Giants now have Duffy hitting much lower in the lineup -- primarily sixth and occasionally fifth. He has yet to attempt a stolen base but should get going in that department soon and flash those wheels he showed off in the minors (45 SB in 201 games). Duffy may not repeat last season's .295 but could well match or exceed some of the other categories. He got the day off on Monday to regroup and should get it going soon. Hold strong on the Duff-Man.

Cody Anderson (SP, CLE)

Anderson was all the rage in spring training, drawing comparisons to Matt Harvey, which is actually rather accurate given both pitchers' horrible starts. Anderson drew some helium in late-March drafts following reports of significant velocity increase in his fastball -- up three to five miles per hour from last season. Anderson's Week 1 was start nothing special. He served up a homer (2 ER total), walked two and struck out two in six innings against the White Sox. His latest start was a doozy. He gave up nine hits to the Mets on Friday -- three of which were home runs. Anderson made 15 starts last season and managed a solid 3.05 ERA, but a 4.58 xFIP and below average 4.34 strikeouts-per-nine suggests that his ERA would not fall in that range again this year. His fastball velocity is up a tick (from 92 to 93 mph on average) from last season, but not to the levels we saw in spring. Owners cutting bait on him in 15-team leagues shouldn't be worried as he will likely remain on free-agent lists for now. He isn't scheduled for a two-start week until the first week of May.

J.J. Hoover (RP, CIN)

The human vacuum cleaner really lived up to his name last week, flat-out sucking. He was only able to get one out in the ninth inning against the Cubs on Thursday as he walked three batters and gave up five earned runs (four earned). He followed that with his first save of the year Saturday, but gave up a two-run shot to the Cardinals' Brandon Moss. Hoover was arguably baseball's worst closer heading into the season, averaging an 11.5 percent walk rate over his last two seasons along with a below-average strikeout-rate (19.7 percent) last season. There has been no discussion about a shift away from Hoover in the ninth given how pedestrian his potential replacements (Jumbo Diaz, Tony Cingrani) have been. Keep in mind this Fallers section doomed Glen Perkins last week, though injury was the culprit there. Don't be shocked to see someone other than Hoover get a save opportunity this week.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA)

Almost everyone I talk to seems to like Seager, so I must be in the minority having no strong affinity for him. It is partially due to preferring other options in the round he usually gets drafted. But more so, it is because I typically shy away from players who do not offer upside in batting average. Seager is fairly consistent in BA, hovering between .258 and .266 in five big-league seasons. He had a rough one last week, connecting on just one hit in 20 plate appearances, but only struck out twice. Seager was pretty damn consistent by the month last year if you dig in to the splits, just as he's consistent from year to year. Nothing in his profile suggests last week was anything more than a mild slump. There are so many ways to skin the fantasy cat. Although he's not one of the ways I do it, I can't argue with those who choose to do so with the elder Seager.

Eddie Rosario (OF, MIN)

Rosario put up a fine line as a rookie last year, posting double-digit homers and steals in 122 games. This season, Rosario needs to earn the playing time with a crowded outfield that most recently promoted Oswaldo Arcia again. Rosario is hitting .146 through 45 PA and rode the pine for the second time in five games Monday. Despite last season's strides, Rosario has a lot to improve in his game, primarily learning to lay off balls out of the zone. Another season of 10 or more HR and SB is just as possible as more seasoning in the minors if he continues to slump.

Julio Teheran (SP, ATL)

Teheran is at an inherent disadvantage to many of the starting pitchers in his ADP range because of the lack of run support from a weak Braves offense -- quite possibly the league's worst. This is Teheran's fourth full season, and the most recent one was a disaster (4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) for where he was taken in drafts last March. Teheran had a couple of tough outings, but faced difficult opponents in the Nationals and Cardinals -- 10 ER combined in 11 IP. Nothing in his skill set, arsenal or velocity points to any reason to expect a repeat of last season's decline. Teheran looks to rebound this week with two home starts against the Dodgers and Mets. Wins will continue to be a problem, but the ratios should regress back to previous averages.

Carlos Rodon (SP, CHW)

Rodon was roughed up hard Monday. He only got one out, serving up six hits (five earned runs) and two walks before getting yanked. These are the breaks with young pitchers like Rodon who are still learning to harness their control. Rodon likely will continue to be unpredictable from start to start in his second full season. There are plenty of fantasy players out there who prefer their starters to be less volatile, and I can appreciate that. Keep in mind that he did not allow more than two earned runs in his last eight starts last season. The walks will continue to be an issue for now -- and perhaps always -- but where's the fun in being completely risk averse?