MLB Barometer: The Dog Days

This season, the doldrums of the baseball season have come about five weeks early. Scott Jenstad and I discussed it briefly on Sunday night's podcast as I filled in one last time for Jeff Erickson before he returns from what was most likely a super clutch vacation. Not to say that I'm burned out on baseball, but Sunday night waiver moves don't come as easy as they did just a few weeks ago. Perhaps it's the fact that the California heat has set in harshly, in perfect sync with the beginning of summer. I hear it was scorching in parts of the east coast this weekend, too. Plus, summer is a busy time for all of us – and our families have only so much patience for our beloved hobby and eyes glued to our tv screens, computer monitors and cell phones.

As I'm sure MLB players are, I am truly looking forward to the All-Star break. Partly because I will be in Vegas catching up with the RotoWire crew for the annual company trip. But also because I need a breather. It's easy to lose sight of the big picture when you're buried in the world of stats and splits on a daily basis. Throw in weekend errands, birthday parties, fantasy football prep, articles galore and a stab at DFS golf – there is simply no time left for ourselves to just decompress on the weekends, let alone getting a good night's sleep. Eight hours? Yeah, right.

When the All-Star break comes around, be sure to enjoy the time when we can't refresh box scores every ten seconds. If you absolutely can't help yourself and need to keep the fix going, step away from your daily routine and try reviewing the first three plus months of the season from a macro point of view – compare MLB park factors from this year to last year, review league standings, sort by standard 5x5 roto and advanced stat categories, or perhaps highlight the first-half under-and-overachievers according to pre-season ADP. Whichever path you choose, just make sure you are refreshed, focused and ready for that stretch run.

RISERS

Justin Turner (3B, LAD) – Through most of his career, Turner has been a nondescript, backup middle infielder. Since being released by the Mets in 2013, he has become one of baseball's most consistent hitters. The 30-year-old surpassed his career high in home runs last week, hitting his eighth of the season and followed up with his ninth on Sunday night. Lately, Turner has been hitting third in a prodigious lineup as Mattingly continues to tweak. A spot between Yasiel Puig / Joc Pederson and Adrian Gonzalez puts Turner in a prime position to succeed if he continues to play there. Last month, Fangraphs' Eno Sarris wrote about Turner's revival and surprisingly the credit goes to Marlon Byrd, who worked with Turner to move the contact points in their swings forward and being generally more aggressive at the plate. Turner had a nice stretch run with the Dodgers last year, but his efforts this year are appearing to be legitimate and worth owning in fantasy leagues. Turner heads into Week 12 of the season hitting .333 and improving his plate discipline, which includes a reduction in his strikeout rate from 18 percent last year to 13 this year. Turner is fan-friendly and a locker room favorite – quite the enigma on a Dodgers team that has a lot of great pieces and could really take their game to the next level. Hector Olivera and Corey Seager represent the Dodgers' future on the left side of the infield. Though Jimmy Rollins' struggles this year make a strong case for a Seager call-up, Olivera may be the man in waiting as the Dodgers won't want to mess with team chemistry and take Turner out of the lineup. Six weeks ago, I complained about Alex Guerrero getting no love at the hot corner and in the lineup – perhaps I'll just stick to my job writing and let Mattingly do what he was hired to do and appears to be doing well.

George Springer (OF, HOU) – Springer had himself quite a week, hitting .452 (14-for-31) with four home runs and eight runs scored. Springer is hitting .395 this month after rough stretches in April (.200) and May (.247) and seems to be settling in comfortably in the leadoff spot for the Astros. He is in the midst of a 14 game hitting streak, though he has attempted to steal just one base over that stretch. Nevertheless, Springer is 13-for-15 on stolen base attempts this year to go with 11 homers and a .277 average, looking like he won't be the second round flop it seemed he was going to be for a few weeks there. The biggest improvement this year has been against left-handed pitching. Though his rookie year was cut short, Springer hit .194 against LHP (in 72 at-bats) and is hitting .288 against them in 80 at-bats so far this year. Also, Springer has a strong split in batting average towards road games (.323 on the road, .228 at home) though that matters little as Springer would never find his way onto a fantasy bench. His OBP has made quite the jump from last year (.336 to .374) and he has cut the strikeouts down as well (from 33 percent to 26.5). A top pedigree, five-tool talent and likely just entering his power prime at age-25, Springer is well on his way to a great season, and becoming a first round fantasy pick for years to come.

Jesse Chavez (SP, OAK) – Chavez looked extra sharp last Wednesday, setting a career high with 11 strikeouts and allowing only three hits against the Padres. Chavez has been around the block – he made his first big league appearance as a middle reliever with the Pirates and bounced around four farm systems before finally settling in with the Athletics. Chavez will be turning 32 in August. Despite his 3-6 record, Chavez boasts sparkling ratios (2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and is striking out eight batters per nine innings this year. He has improved on the walk rate – from 8 percent last year to 6 percent this year and has cut his home run rate in half. Chavez tired down the stretch in his first run as a starter last year, and the numbers showed. Either way, Chavez should have been in the rotation to start the 2015 season and appears to have truly learned how to mix and match his improved arsenal now that he's more stretched out. His velocity is up slightly, he's inducing more pop ups and most importantly, has an increased swinging strike rate. Chavez lines up for two starts this week against the righty-crushing Rangers and the run-producing Royals – both of which will be true tests for Chavez. Hopefully his offense can provide a little run support.

Adam Warren (SP, NYY) – For someone who pitches on a high-profile team like they Yankees, Warren sure does seem to fly under the radar in fantasy leagues. Still available in 70 percent of NFBC RotoWire Online Championship 12-teamers, Warren has been a very steady performer. He has allowed more than three earned runs in a game only twice in 13 starts – both of those games were back in April against division opponents. His best start was his latest one, against a tough Tigers squad – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 K. Heading into Week 12 of the season, Warren carries a 3.62 ERA and a respectable 1.26 WHIP and has improved month-over-month since April. His ERA is more than twice as good at home (2.21) than on the road (4.91) – a split worth taking note of if looking to spot start him in the next few weeks. Warren was a dominant college pitcher, going 32-4 at the University of North Carolina, and had a decent minor league career before joining the Yanks' middle relief rotation for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. As it is with most stretched-out relievers, Warren's strikeouts-per-nine took a dip (currently, a subpar 5.85 K/9), but he has a nice mix of pitches to work with including a new-look change up, curve, slider, two seam and four seam fastball. Warren hopes he gets the 'cold' version of the Astros when he faces them at home this week as he guns for his new career-best strikeouts in a game. If he's still on your waivers, keep an eye on this start and see if Warren is a better fit for your squad than some of the more volatile guys in his division like Ubaldo Jimenez, Clay Buchholz and Wade Miley. I've never known anyone who would mind giving up a few strikeouts in a game in exchange for a peaceful night's rest with dreams of stability in thy fantasy rotation.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL) – A bad man at the plate last week. By bad I mean good, of course. Three steals, 9 RBI, a homer and a .357 BA. Continues to struggle against lefties (.164/.218/.492) but crushes RHP (.314/.389/.897), has pop (9 HR), steals bases with abandon (17 in 22 attempts) and leads off in a lovely park he calls Coors Field half the time. Another year under his belt means he hopefully won't fall off the map the way he did in his tremendous 2014 season. Lots to like for the last 3.5 months.

Ben Paulsen (1B/OF, COL) – Another Rockies lefty who swings a big stick. Paulsen was a big FAAB target here as he's just two games at OF away from that multi-eligibility. Sneaky. Morneau isn't coming back anytime soon and Drew Stubbs is stuck in Triple-A. Ynoa and Barnes will see time in the OF, but Paulsen fits the bill best there with three games in Coors against juicy Dbacks' starters, all of which are righties.

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX) – Since his call up on June 15, Odor has made his presence known - .400, 2 SB, 5 RB – and is planning to stick it out for the remainder of the year. There's only so much you can expect from a 21-year-old rookie. But after struggling in April, Odor did damage in Triple-A to the tune of .352 BA and .426 OBP, scoring 26 runs in 30 games. Maturing doesn't happen overnight, but hitters who take their crafts seriously and work on them, no matter what age, are the guys you want to take a chance on plugging them off waiver wires. A fairly strong pedigree certainly doesn't hurt either.

Carson Smith (RP, SEA) – It took McClendon far too long to get Rodney off ninth inning duty after constant implosions. Now with fan-fave Carson Smith in the mix, it just feels right. 5-for-5 in save opps, a WHIP under 0.80 and a crazy sinker that tops out at 97 – a full mph improved from last year. Carson Smith, the people's closer has arrived, let us rejoice!

NOT BUYING IT

Chris Parmelee (1B/OF, BAL) – Next in line in the game of musical chairs that is the Orioles OF. Smacked three homers last week and hit third in the lineup while Adam Jones was ailing. The week before that, they were all about Delmon Young. Jimmy Paredes was the flavor of the week the month prior. Now Nolan Reimold is in town for some fun, and maybe Travis Snider heats up next week. Showalter surely knows how to get his uninspiring hitters to overachieve for a few weeks, but the carousel always ends up stopping sooner than later. Parmelee has yet to surpass 300 PA in a season, and 2015 may not be the year either.

Jose Urena (SP, MIA) – A little consistency since his call-up – four straight outings with at least six innings pitched. Two earned runs or less allowed in three of those four starts. But the strikeout rate (sub 10 percent) is abysmal, and dangerous as he heads to take on two of the best offenses in the National League this week (the Cardinals and Dodgers). Buena suerte, senor.

FALLERS

Derek Norris (C, SD) – Norris is the backstop in Trader AJ's attempt to buy a championship. Though Norris looks the part of a rough-and-tumble slugger, and is on pace for 20 homers, he is incredibly inconsistent from week to week and has some very big holes in his swings. Norris' plate patience has taken a tumble in deep SoCal – walk rate cut in half from 12 percent in his last two years with the A's to a miniscule 6 percent. The strikeout rate has improved a touch, though it's marginal and a .303 OBP for a guy who hits second is supposed to help set the table for Kemp and Upton is not good enough. He's either out in the kitchen deciding what to set the table with, or clearing the table altogether and out to the bleachers – the latter of which is not too shabby. The Padres will continue to tweak the batting order, but second probably isn't the best spot for the free-swinging Norris. He went 3-for-24 last week (.125) but two of those hits were home runs, in true Luis Valbuena fashion. Hey, 20 HR catchers are hip these days, but predicting corresponding batting averages will always be a tough task with guys like Norris.

Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) – Considered a better 'real life' than fantasy prospect, Lindor falls into the fallers category prematurely despite only a handful of pro games on his resume. As a result, Lindor was heavily underbid in NFBC leagues this weekend as folks spent like crazy for rookies recently - most notably Byron Buxton this week, and Carlos Correa and Joey Gallo in the weeks' prior. I was stoked to snag Lindor for $39 and $19 in two of my 12-teamers. Jose Ramirez was putrid offensively prior to his demotion and Mike Aviles is on the downswing of his career and was never destined to be more than a part-time platoon split. Lindor's exceptional defense will keep him in the lineup, but perhaps the offense will surprise too. He struggled on the base paths in Triple-A this year, getting caught seven times in 16 attempts, but those stats don't carry over into the majors. And it is one of the factors that kept his price low. If Lindor can stick hitting second in this Indians lineup between Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley, it will increase the possibility that he matches or exceeds the 5x5 production of the more-hyped Buxton for the remainder of the year. The straw has not stirred the drink yet, and you may have received the free Grey Goose upgrade for the price of the Popov.

Carlos Carrasco (SP, CLE) –  By now you've figured out that many of the 'fallers' listed are players worth exploring and shopping for – always read the fine print. Carrasco has had his fair share of games of three or more runs allowed, but in exchange, his owners are getting top-level strikeouts. Carrasco and teammates Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar all rank among the league's top 10 with strikeouts-per-nine of 10.0 or higher. Of course, we'd love to have both. There is always a bit of trade-off between dominance and control, unless you're the total package like Kershaw, Scherzer or Sale. Despite last season's monster second half and that 18 whiff outing, Kluber is on the outside looking in with this group in terms of consistency. As for Carrasco, better times appear on the horizon. His FIP (2.91) and xFIP (2.86) are significantly lower than his ERA (4.35) and he has walked more than two batters just once in 13 starts. Most of his advanced metrics are within range of last year's breakout season. Carrasco gets a tough matchup against a hot Tigers team this week, against whom he has allowed 8 ER in 10 IP. After that, a couple of road starts against the Rays and the Pirates. It may be worth seeing how low the Carrasco owner in your league is willing to go if Carrasco has yet another rough outing versus Detroit.

James Shields (SP, SD) – Despite being among the league leaders in strikeout-rate and heading into Week 12 with a 7-1 record, Shields finds himself in uncomfortable company, tied for the third most home runs allowed this year (16) behind two Kyles – Lohse (17) and Kendrick (18). Shields did get pounded for eight hits and allowed four earned runs against the Diamondbacks last week, but he didn't allow any home runs and Chase Field is a tough park for most pitchers. In fact, he's done well at limiting the long ball in June, allowing just one in four starts (25.1 IP) after letting 11 fly off of him in six starts (37.1 IP) last month. His HR/9 is currently 1.54. The last time he allowed more than 1.00 HR/9 was all the way back in 2010. He faces the Giants this week, a team he dominated in his second start of the season (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K). Shields isn't the sexiest of SP2 options, but we could do worse than this incredibly durable workhorse who has pitched 200-plus innings in each of the last eight seasons.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Shin-Soo Choo (OF, TEX) – Very streaky hitter in what is the downswing of his career. Stopped running completely (0 SB), hitting .154 against lefties with a bad OBP (.319) for a leadoff hitter. Choo hit .148 last week and is at .227 in June. Best used against fly ball heavy righties in DFS the day after signs of a pulse at the plate.

Ian Kinsler (2B, DET) – We would assume that it is only a matter of time before he heats up. The rest of the team has. The issue here is the lack of power we've grown accustomed to – currently an ISO of .083 – a big drop from last year's .143 and the .223/.235 we saw earlier in his career when he slugged 30-plus homers. Jump in BB% from last year (from 4 to 10 percent), and only the occasional steal. Right now, he only contributes in the runs category.

Michael Bolsinger (SP, LAD) – Back to reality after holding an ERA under 2.00 through his first five starts. He failed to make it out of the fifth inning against the Padres two weeks ago and was rocked for 5 ER against another division rival, the Giants. Tough to run out there if the wind is blowing out in Wrigley this week, but there's great value in pitching for the Dodgers in the NL West. Just pick your spots.

Bartolo Colon (SP, NYM) – Wow, he's 42-years-old. Father time may have caught up to him as he's getting shelled more frequently – outings of 8 ER, 5 ER last month and 6 ER against the Blue Jays last week. Only good thing going is a BB/9 under 1.00.

DON'T PANIC ON

David Peralta (OF, ARI) – Supposed to be the Dbacks' righty-killer, but hitting just .265 against them. Hit just .185 last week but is playing more frequently with the recent departure of Mark Trumbo and injury to Ender Inciarte. Grab him off waivers if it's not too late for that matzah ball elixir known as Coors Field.

Joakim Soria (RP, DET) – A very scary stretch – home runs allowed in four consecutive relief appearances. He is healthy though, with increased velocity and was nearly unhittable in April (.135 xBA) and May (.196). Long-ish leash and not many relievers with closing experience on the team. No reason to freak out quite yet.