MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

This week, we'll peek into the crystal ball. With just a few weeks left in the season, it's time to take a glance at next year's drafts. To that end, I was lucky enough to participate in one of the six Too Early Mocks, a series of 2020 mock drafts run by FanGraphs'  Justin Mason prior to the end of the 2019 season. The draft boards can be found here. ADP data can be found here.

It's been quite the interesting experience. I've always used projections and auction calculators heavily in my own personal rankings, but those aren't available for 2020 yet, so we're in many ways drafting blind. There isn't any ADP data available yet by which to check your intuitions or to guess whether a player will be available next round, as the whole point of the exercise is to get an early ADP to use in offseason discussions before draft season really gets going.

The following is a quick rundown of the players I've taken with my first handful of picks. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

Round 1, pick 12: Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies. His 2019 campaign doesn't stand out compared to his previous several seasons, but that's in no way a bad thing. Very happy to get him a few spots later than his 2019 NFBC ADP of 7.7.

Round 2, pick 19: Justin Verlander, SP, Astros. Discussed below. Getting this season's top-earning pitcher as the third pitcher off the board seems like a good deal to me, though his age (he'll turn 37 this offseason) can't be completely ignored.

Round 3, pick 42: Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, Yankees. Shortstop will be quite the mess to untangle this winter. Torres' ADP in the Too Early Mocks is 41.0, though there are a full 10 shortstops ahead of him.

Round 4, pick 49: Joey Gallo, 1B/OF, Rangers. Weighing his breakout start against his broken hamate bone won't be easy. I was the high man on him in these drafts, with his ADP coming in at 61.8.

Round 5, pick 72: Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins. Nothing flashy, but 30 homers and a solid batting average in a good lineup is exactly what I want in my second outfielder.

Round 6, pick 79: DJ LeMahieu, 1B/2B/3B, Yankees. Taken a bit ahead of his ADP of 90.0, but I'm still happy with the pick. He's shown he can hit outside of Coors and now has respectable power to go along with an elite batting average.

Round 7, pick 102: Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks. I love strikeouts, and Ray keeps providing them while keeping his ERA respectable.

Round 8, pick 109: Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox: He'll turn 33 this winter, but his power and average have remained remarkably stable. Any decline will hopefully be offset by an improvement in the lineup surrounding him as the young Sox continue to improve.

The draft has been entertaining and challenging and will only get more difficult and fun as it reaches the later rounds. I haven't been bold enough to grab a player with only a handful of games under his belt just yet, but seeing others take names like Gavin Lux and Jo Adell within the first 10 rounds has been an interesting preview of what's to come this winter. I hope you all will get some practical value and entertainment value from following along.

RISERS

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros: Verlander featured in this column at the start of August, but he's only gotten better since. He threw his third career no-hitter last Sunday against the Blue Jays, though in many ways that outing barely stands out from the ones that surround it. He's allowed more than two runs just once in 11 starts since the All-Star break and has struck out less than a batter per inning just once over that stretch. That's given him a 1.72 ERA and a 41.1 percent strikeout rate in the second half, somehow a significant improvement over his 2.89 ERA and 31.5 percent strikeout rate prior to the break. The veteran isn't anywhere close to showing signs of slowing down in his age-36 season. I was happy to get him at pick 19 in my Too Early Mock, though I'm not convinced he'll be available that late too often this winter despite his age.

Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros: Cole earned a write-up in this column in mid-June on the theory that his underlying numbers suggested he would soon improve on his solid but unspectacular 3.67 ERA, putting him in the conversation as the best pitcher in the league by the end of the season. He's done all he can to stake his claim for that title since then, posting an incredible 1.83 over his 14 starts since that article was written. His 2.73 ERA now ranks fifth in the league among qualified starters, and he ranks third by FIP (2.80) and first in xFIP (2.51, a full 0.40 runs better than Max Scherzer in second place). He's on an absurd strikeout run, racking up 14, 14 and 15 over his last three starts. His 39.4 percent strikeout rate not only leads the league, it's nearly two percentage points above Pedro Martinez's 37.5 percent mark from 1999 in the race for the highest single-season strikeout rate of all-time among qualified starters. He'll have a good shot to go as the top fantasy pitcher in drafts this winter; through six Too Early Mock drafts, his ADP of 11.0 comes in just a hair behind Max Scherzer's 10.6.

Ketel Marte, 2B/SS/OF, Diamondbacks: Through Aug. 13, Marte was already having easily the best season of his career, with his .315/.377/.558 slash line blowing out the .263/.324/.389 line he'd managed through the first four seasons of his career. In the 19 games since his four-hit game on Aug. 14, however, he's taken things to a new level, hitting a ridiculous .427/.469/.853 with eight homers. The Diamondbacks have improved along with him, making a charge back into playoff contention and moving to just a game and a half back of the Cubs for the second wild card. Marte may not be able to keep up quite these numbers the rest of the way, but his season-long performance looks quite sustainable at this point. His draft stock should rise considerably this offseason, with his ADP sitting at 38.5 in the Too Early Mocks.

Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins: The entire season has been a surprisingly successful one for both Odorizzi and the Twins. He reached a new level recently, though, recording a 3.05 ERA and a 2.45 FIP over his last eight starts while striking out 28.4 percent of batters. Zooming in on just his last three outings, his ERA looks a little worse (3.68), but his FIP improves to a stellar 1.68 while his strikeout rate jumps up to 37.3 percent. It's quite the showing from a player who was basically the definition of a competent but forgettable innings-eater through the first seven seasons of his big-league career, recording a 3.94 ERA and a 22.0 percent strikeout rate prior to this year. The 29-year-old added nearly two ticks to his fastball this season, however, and it's had the desired effect. He should be thought of as a different guy heading into drafts this winter.

Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals: Molina's ability to hold off aging has been remarkable, though it appeared that the veteran catcher was finally losing a step at age 36. Through Aug. 18, he was hitting just .248/.273/.348. His .621 OPS as of that date would have been his lowest mark in a season since 2006, a year in which Ryan Howard led the league in homers and Grady Sizemore led the American League in WAR. He finally appears to be back on track after missing more than a month with a thumb strain, posting a .377/.456/.638 line with four homers over his last 20 games. Molina clearly still has the ability to be one of the top offensive catchers in the game and definitely should be back on a team if his previous owner dropped him due to injury or underperformance.

Jurickson Profar, 1B/2B/3B/SS, Athletics: Profar had reverted back to his previous poor form for most of the season, posting a .204/.269/.380 slash line through Aug. 20 and losing his starting job for a brief period. He's since won it back and suddenly looks like a new man, hitting .320/.485/.700 with five homers over his last 16 games. He's shown excellent plate discipline over that stretch, earning 14 walks while striking out just eight times. Profar was at least a competent hitter last season, finishing with a .254/.335/.458 line, so there's no reason to completely dismiss his return to effectiveness. He should have a good chance of performing similarly down the stretch, and his positional flexibility means he should be able to fit in somewhere on most fantasy rosters.

FALLERS

Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves: Acuna's inclusion as a faller this week isn't an indictment of his talent. Playing any role at all at age 21 is remarkable, and starting his career the way he has puts him well on the way to be one of the defining players of this era. He's not yet the transcendent talent he could one day be at the plate, however, as his .280/.362/.511 slash line is good for a strong but not elite 123 wRC+, putting him in the range of players such as Jorge Polanco and Trey Mancini. That number is noticeably lower than the 143 wRC+ he recorded in his rookie season and has been brought down by a poor stretch over his last 20 games, a period in which he's hit just .162/.267/.311. Even with his latest slump, though, he remains the second-highest earner according to our earned auction values, a number propped up by his excellent steal total (34, good for third in the league). The speed should continue to prop up his value next season even if his bat doesn't get back to his rookie form, giving him a case as the top overall player in drafts this winter.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox: On the whole, Devers' third season has been very positive. The 22-year-old's .313/.363/.566 slash line is a huge step forward from his poor .240/.298/.433 showing in his sophomore campaign and is also noticeably better than his .284/.338/.482 line as a rookie. He's been flagging lately, though, slumping to a poor .176/.243/.338 line over his last 16 games. His batted-ball data reflects those struggles. While he's still hitting the ball hard, he's been beating a ton of groundballs into the shift. His groundball rate has jumped from 42.8 percent over his first 123 games to 51.9 percent over his last 16, while his pull rate has climbed from 41.5 percent to 46.3 percent over the same stretch. He'll have to reverse that trend if he's to get back to being a productive hitter the last few weeks of the season.

Domingo German, SP, Yankees: German didn't even look like a rotation option early in camp until a spot opened up following Luis Severino's shoulder injury. He took the spot and made it his own, posting a 3.98 ERA through Aug. 3, a number backed up by a solid 26.6 percent strikeout rate and a 5.6 percent walk rate. He seems to be tiring since then, however, as he's slipped to a 4.96 ERA over his last six starts while falling to a pedestrian 22.7 percent strikeout rate and 9.2 percent walk rate. The loss of effectiveness late in the season isn't terribly surprising when considering how much German's workload has already risen from last year, as he's already thrown 140.2 innings this season after tossing just 94 in 2018. With that in mind, the Yankees will have German piggyback with CC Sabathia during his next time on the mound and are seemingly shifting him to a relief role for the playoffs, a job change which would take away most of his fantasy value.

Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets: While Wheeler has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts, those results have hid some performances which have been mediocre at best, as he's struck out just seven batters in 11 innings while walking five. Those numbers are part of a discouraging trend for Wheeler that extends over his last five starts. He owns a 5.00 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in those outings while posting a particularly discouraging 10.9 percent strikeout rate and walking 9.4 percent of batters. Wheeler has never been a particularly high strikeout guy, though his 25.5 percent strikeout rate over his first 22 starts of the season was solidly better than average, as was his 6.0 percent walk rate. This looks more like a slump than an injury, as he was quite good in the three starts which immediately followed the shoulder issue he was dealing with in late July.