MLB Barometer: Nightmare Mess for Stanton Owners

Given the amount of impressive young talent that's reached the majors the last couple years, including the likes of Nomar Mazara and Julio Urias in the early months of 2016 and Tim Anderson and Blake Snell last week, it's sometimes hard to believe there are any elite prospects left down on the farm. Nonetheless, here we are in the second week of June after the Super-Two arbitration deadline has (likely) come and gone and, like clockwork, teams are beginning to call up the fruits of their developmental labor.

While there may not be a Carlos Correa or Kris Bryant poised for promotion, there are still a lot of kids who have the potential to give a boost to even the strongest fantasy rosters. Here's a far from exhaustive list of the top names yet to make their debuts who you should be keeping an eye on, either to stash on your reserve lists now if you can, or to pounce on once they officially get called up to The Show and added to your free agent pool. You'll note the majority of the names here are in National League organizations. That's simply the way the prospect cycle tumbled this season – at this time next year, it could be AL prospects who dominate a similar list.

Orlando Arcia (SS, MIL): Jonathan Villar's great start may have given the Brewers a legitimate excuse to keep Arcia in Triple-A for a couple months, but the 21-year-old has kept the pressure on with a .291/.329/.404 line through 56 games. Arcia's glove might be a bit ahead of his bat, but he still profiles as a player who can help you in batting average and steals once he gets the call. Villar played some third base and even center field last year for the Astros, so his emergence isn't necessarily a roadblock once the front office decided it's time to turn shortstop over to Arcia. ETA: By the All-Star break

Alex Bregman (SS, HOU): The second overall pick in last year's draft, Bregman has overmatched Double-A pitching by hitting .314/.411/.596 in 49 games. The Astros have given him a little playing time at third base, and that remains his likeliest path to the majors with Carlos Correa still doing his thing at shortstop. Houston's also struggling to keep pace with Texas in the AL West, and promoting a kid or two to rejuvenate the offense could be just what they need to make a run. ETA: Any day now

Willson Contreras (C, CHC): Oh great, just what the Cubs need, another exciting young hitter. Contreras has nothing left to prove offensively at Triple-A, hitting .354/.446/.600 in 53 games, and his defense is certainly good enough to get him regular playing time in the majors. The biggest obstacle for him is simply that the Cubs don't need him. Miguel Montero hasn't done much with the bat this year, but the pitching staff likes throwing to him and the team is already on pace for a historic win total as it is. That means, barring an injury, Contreras may not get a real shot until 2017. ETA: September 2016

Jose De Leon (SP, LAD): De Leon has put up simply absurd strikeout rates in the minors, but ankle and arm injuries have limited him to just 11 innings at Triple-A this year. The Dodgers need help at the back of their rotation, so De Leon could get a chance once he's healthy and stretched back out, but much like Julio Urias he'll be on an innings limit after tossing just 114.1 IP last season and the club should have veteran options like Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu returned from the DL over the next month or two. De Leon's filthy raw stuff is more than ready for the majors, though. ETA: In the second half

Clint Frazier (OF, CLE): The longest shot for 2016 value on this list, Frazier has taken a big step forward at Double-A this season, hitting .312/.400/.505 in 52 games at Double-A. He'll have 20-20 potential in his first full major league season, and the Indians certainly have room for him in their corner outfield spot in the majors, but the 21-year-old would probably be better served consolidating his progress for a while at Triple-A. With Cleveland a serious threat to take the AL Central this season, though, the front office might decide the best place for Frazier to continue his development is in the heat of a pennant race. ETA: June 2017

Tyler Glasnow (SP, PIT): Jameson Taillon got called up first, but Glasnow might not be too far behind him thanks to a 1.90 ERA and 86:36 K:BB in 71 Triple-A innings. The big righty still has some control issues to work on, but with the Pirates' rotation having no reliable arms at the moment (Gerrit Cole's hurt and no one else is consistent), they have very little to lose by bringing Glasnow up to see whether his stuff is as unhittable in the majors as it's been in the minors. ETA: Any day now

Josh Hader (SP, MIL): The Carlos Gomez deal looks worse for the Astros with every passing day. Hader, who wasn't even the centerpiece of the package the Brewers got back, just crushed Double-A this year (0.95 ERA, 73:19 K:BB in 57 innings) before striking out nine over six innings in his first start at Triple-A. The lefty only has very good stuff but it plays up due to his funky delivery, and the biggest obstacle to his final promotion might be Milwaukee's lack of need. Their rotation is actually doing pretty well at the moment and just got Matt Garza back, so Hader should get some run at Triple-A. If Garza pitches like he did last year though he won't last long, and if he returns to his pre-2015 form he'll be trade bait. Either way, Hader seems just about ready to step up when they have a vacancy. ETA: After the trade deadline

Manuel Margot (OF, SD): Margot seems poised to become the first return on the Craig Kimbrel trade that Padres fans get to see. The 21-year-old is hitting .302/.358/.427 in 60 games at Triple-A, and while the team is going nowhere this season they also have Melvin Upton and Jon Jay cluttering up two outfield spots. Margot's got a great glove in center field and the tools to be an effective leadoff hitter, so once they deem him to be ready (and decide it's financially prudent to start his service time clock) he'll be up with San Diego. ETA: September 2016

A.J. Reed (1B, HOU): This preseason, Reed was considered one of the most likely rookies to win a starting gig right out of spring training, but Houston swerved everyone by giving Tyler White the job at first base instead. White's now hitting .211/296/.386 and has done little since his hot first week, but Reed hasn't forced the issue either, battling some nagging injuries and hitting just .240/.343/.463 in 48 games at Triple-A. GM Jeff Luhnow made some noises about the slugger being close to ready for a promotion this week though, so all it will likely take is one hot streak of his own to get him into an Astros uniform. ETA: July 2016

Cody Reed (SP, CIN): The Reds keep teasing Reed's debut. First they almost give him a rotation job coming out of training camp, then they almost promote him to replace the awful Alfredo Simon before instead turning to Daniel Wright. Wright lasted all of three innings Monday, while Reed had a 3.38 ERA and 58:15 K:BB in 58.2 Triple-A innings before his own Monday start for Louisville, in which the lefty allowed one run on three hits and two walks over six innings while striking out five. Yep, Wright and Reed are on the same rotation schedule. You're fooling no one, Cinci. Just do it already. ETA: This weekend, probably

Alex Reyes (SP, STL): If there's one thing you can count on with the Cardinals, it's that their farm system churns out right-handed pitchers like Apple churns out gadgets you didn't know you wanted until you saw them. Reyes is just getting back into form after missing 50 games due to a failed drug test (marijuana, not PEDs), but five starts into his Triple-A career he's got a 3.32 ERA and ludicrous 39:11 K:BB in 21.2 innings. The control could be better, but when you're striking out nearly two batters an inning you can afford the occasional walk. The Cards don't have any room in their rotation at the moment, but Michael Wacha's been shaky and if it turns out he's nursing an injury, Reyes could jump right in. If not, they could always get his feet wet with a bullpen stint. ETA: September 2016

Nick Williams (OF, PHI): J.P. Crawford is considering the Phillies' prospect with the highest ceiling, but he's not the high-ceiling prospect who's doing best now. That honor belongs to Williams and his .282/.320/.455 line through 55 Triple-A games. The 22-year-old doesn't have exemplary control of the strike zone, but he hits everything hard and so far hasn't needed to draw a lot of walks to put up gaudy numbers. He's got power, a bit of speed, and while his batting average could be volatile that doesn't mean he's not capable of hitting .280 or better in the majors. Unless the Phillies miraculously stay in the playoff hunt this year they'll have little incentive to bring him up, but stranger things have happened. ETA: June 2017

RISERS

Javier Baez (2B, CHC)

Jorge Soler's injury has has a cascade effect on the Cubs' roster, pushing Kris Bryant out to left field on a regular basis and opening up third base for Baez. It's easy to see why manager Joe Maddon is finding excuses to write his name on the lineup card, as Baez is raking at a .324 (12-for-37) clip over the last two weeks with three homers and 12 RBI. Anybody getting consistent playing time in the Cubbies' juggernaut offense is going to collect counting stats, but Baez has also shown some significant improvement in his overall batting line this year, posting a 19.7 percent strikeout rate so far in the majors. That would be his best mark at any level since Rookie ball if he can keep it up. A Baez who's making more contact is a Baez you want on your fantasy roster, as good things happen when he puts the ball in play. Given his typical batted ball profile and minor league track record his current .305 BABIP is probably even a bit low, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him get hotter at the plate rather than cooling down. Keeping his strikeout rate reasonable is the key, but if he does, Baez could erupt.

Zach Davies (SP, MIL)

As I mentioned in the Hader writeup above the Brewers' rotation has been surprisingly strong lately, and Davies has been a big part of that resurgence. Over the last month, he's posted a 2.35 ERA, terrific 0.73 WHIP and 36:6 K:BB in 38.1 innings while winning four straight starts, numbers which shouldn't be sitting on your waiver wire no matter how shallow your league is. The 23-year-old righty isn't blowing anyone away with his fastball, but his cutter produces plenty of weak contact and his changeup is proving to be a solid out pitch. Pitchers with Davies' profile aren't necessarily the best bets to remain dominant – all else being equal, you'd much rather a guy throw 98 mph than 89 mph – but until big league hitters adjust to what he's doing he should be able to keep up his excellent form.

Michael Fulmer (SP, DET)

Speaking of excellent form, you can't do much better than a 28.1 inning scoreless streak. Fulmer has been outstanding since the Tigers called him up, but he's taken his game to another level over the last few weeks. The former Mets farmhand has complemented his 95 mph heater with a nasty slider and solid changeup, and he's been far better than the Tigers, Mets or the prospect community thought he would be. How much better, you ask? Check this out. Fulmer is not only two outs away from setting a franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings by a rookie, he's the first pitcher to post four consecutive starts with six or more shutout innings and three or fewer hits allowed since the mound was moved out to 60 feet six inches in 1893. Detroit's hitters get most of the attention, and righty so, but with Fulmer on fire and Justin Verlander back on track, it might be their rotation that keeps them in the thick of the race in the AL Central.

Robbie Grossman (OF, MIN)

Speaking of the AL Central, the Twins have completely made over their outfield the last couple weeks. Byron Buxton is back and, at least for a moment, appeared ready to start tapping into his potential, going 10-for-23 after his most recent promotion. (He's 2-for-24 since, but hey, baby steps). Max Kepler is also up and patrolling right field in place of the injured Miguel Sano and while Kepler has struggled overall, his 10th inning walk-off blast against the Red Sox over the weekend gave a glimpse of his upside as well. And in left field for Minnesota? That would be former Astro washout Grossman, who posted a weak .240/.327/.341 line in 666 career at-bats for Houston over the previous three seasons. Don't assume his .325/.464/.623 performance in 2016 is the result of a deal with the devil, though. Sure, he's hitting over his head a little, but players with his minor league profile (good production but high strikeouts) often need more time to make adjustments in the majors, with Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis being two of the most notorious examples of "late bloomers." Grossman's game is based more OBP and speed than those two sluggers but with that skill set, the 26-year-old should still be able to make a contribution for the offense-starved Twins even after his .377 BABIP swoons to more normal levels.

FALLERS

Nate Karns (SP, SEA)

Boy, did Karns pick the wrong time to hit the skids. He's now walked five batters in each of his last two starts, and over the last month his 4.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 4.6 BB/9 rate are fairly putrid. The Mariners fancy themselves playoff contenders this year (and would actually hold the AL's second wild card spot if the season had ended Monday) and while Felix Hernandez's calf injury has allowed Karns to stay in the rotation, James Paxton has come roaring out of the gate as King Felix's replacement. Karns' strikeout rate has remained sold and there's been no indication of an injury, so this may simply be a case of his mechanics getting a bit out of sync, something one good video review and bullpen session could fix. If he still can't find the plate when Hernandez returns, though ... well, Karns still has options left, and Tacoma could be calling.

Francisco Liriano (SP, PIT)

Another guy who can't the plate is Liriano, who's walked at least two batters in every start but one this season. A little wildness is to be expected from the left-hander but things have gotten much worse recently, as he's issued 22 free passes over his last six starts and 32.2 innings. His walk rate is now the worst of his career, but the real driver of his 4.92 ERA is a career-high 1.73 HR/9 rate, which suggests that Liriano is not only missing outside the strike zone but within it as well. Nobody is pitching well for the Pirates at the moment, which could buy him time to get things straightened out given that he's got a much better track record than the likes of Juan Nicasio or Jeff Locke, but Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow are both banging at the door of the rotation as someone will have to make way for them. If he keeps pitching like this, Liriano's as likely a candidate to lose his spot as anybody.

Travis Shaw (3B, BOS)

One of the feel-good stories of spring training, Shaw came almost out of nowhere to supplant Pablo Sandoval and His Amazing Exploding Belt as the Red Sox's third baseman. April optimism has given way to June reality though, and Shaw's .205/.270/.357 line over the last month isn't going to get it done for a team that expects to be playing in October this year. For the moment his job is safe, as injuries elsewhere on the diamond have left Boston with little lineup flexibility, but human Swiss Army knife Brock Holt could return from his concussion within the next week or so. When he does, who do you think will lose playing time: Shaw and his .627 OPS over the last month, or left fielder Chris Young and his 1.146 OPS over that same stretch?

Giancarlo Stanton (OF, MIA)

It really pains me to list Stanton here. He's been one of my favorite modern players ever since he was coming up through the Marlins' system, hitting mammoth home runs and helpfully changing his first name to avoid database confusion with journeyman LOOGY Mike Stanton. But the slugger is mired in the worst slump of his career, hitting .111/.191/.210 over the last month with an unfathomably bad 41.9 percent strikeout rate so far in June. People keep asking whether players like Prince Fielder, Justin Upton and Carlos Gomez are "done," but none are hitting as badly as Stanton. Slumps this bad and this deep for a 26-year-old with his pedigree are almost unprecedented so something is definitely amiss, and until we have some clue what it is any predictions on his future performance are just wild guesses (much like Stanton's swings at breaking balls these days). You can't cut him from your fantasy roster given his upside if he does come around, but you also can't trade him for anything close to his preseason value as a first-round pick and you can't let him keep poisoning your active lineup either. It's the ultimate Freddy Kruger nightmare scenario for a fantasy owner and there's no sign yet you'll be able to wake up from it any time soon, if at all.