Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Our weekly ritual continues as we encounter some news, notes and tidbits on the minor league scene before diving into more detailed prospect profiles.

• Elly De La Cruz has been white-hot in May by hitting .329/.443/.685 with six home runs, 20 RBI and five steals over 19 contests at Triple-A. Matt McLain was recently promoted to the Reds to play shortstop, but De La Cruz may force Cinci's hand if he continues to rake. Christian Encarnacion-Strand isn't far behind going .329 with six homers and 15 RBI this month, though he's struck out 25 times across 14 outings with only two walks.
• Hunter Goodman cranked his 14th homer Sunday at Double-A, and his power potential combined with a future home at Coors Field has seen his value skyrocket. The same can be said for Jordan Beck, who's gone deep 12 times at High-A.
• Colt Keith can't get to the Majors soon enough for the Tigers, who sport some of the worst offensive statistics in baseball. He's hitting over .300 for the second straight season - this time at Double-A - while also displaying above-average power.
• Jackson Holliday was promoted to High-A after only 13 contests, and is currently slashing .395/.505/.724 in 21 games at the new level. (That isn't a typo.)
• Keep Darell Hernaiz on your radar. The 21-year-old came over to the A's as part of the Cole Irvin deal this offseason. The second baseman is slashing .341/.396/.524 with four home runs, 24 RBI and five steals through 32 games at Double-A.

UPGRADE

Chad Dallas, P, TOR – Dallas tore through High-A to begin this season while posting a 2.03 ERA and 37:12 K:BB over 26.2 innings while opposing batters have hit .146 against, which led to a Double-A promotion. The first start at this new level was a dandy for the 22-year-old righty as he tossed seven scoreless innings Friday scattering two hits and two walks while fanning nine. If Dallas can keep the free passes in check, he could vault up the prospect rankings.

Tyler Locklear, 1B, SEA – A second-round pick in 2022, Locklear is off to a stellar start slashing .297/.399/.559 with nine homers, 30 RBI and five steals through 38 contests at High-A. He's drawn comparisons to Pete Alonso based on the same type of raw power and aggression at the dish, though that is perhaps an unfair standard to live up to. While power remains Locklear's calling card, he's yet to hit below .282 at any level during his brief professional career. As a polished collegian, he could quickly advance through the system.

Jackson Chourio, OF, MIL – The numbers don't tell the whole story for Chourio. On paper, his statistics look pedestrian as he's gone .252/.301/.391 with five home runs, 23 RBI and 10 swipes across 37 appearances. Then you realize Chourio just turned 19 two months ago and is already at Double-A. The narrative switches to him more than holding his own against far older and more experienced competition. Chourio offers the potential to produce 20-plus homers and 20-plus steals in the same season. He only needs to hone his plate discipline a bit (40 strikeouts and only 12 walks), but the fact he's still hitting above .250 at this level despite his age and his other tools make him one of baseball's top neophytes.

Ryan Clifford, OF, HOU – An 11th-round pick last year, Clifford was paid like a second-rounder and perhaps predictably found little resistance at Low-A to begin the current campaign as he's batting .337 with a .488 OBP in 25 games with almost as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27). That resulted in a quick promotion to High-A, where he's tapped into his power potential with three home runs from 11 contests. Clifford is polished beyond his years at the plate to go with above-average pop and even the ability to swipe a few bags.

CHECK STATUS

Will Warren, P, NYY – Warren is a groundball pitcher from a rather small school who's already made his way to Triple-A despite being selected in 2021. His slider has developed into a wipeout pitch, but he's far from a one-trick pony as he can reach the upper-90s with his heater and knows how to work the strike zone with a bevy of off-speed offerings. Warren has also fanned more than a batter per inning during his brief time in the minors while earning a win in his first start at Triple-A last Thursday.

Gavin Cross, OF, KC – On the plus side, Cross has recorded seven home runs and nine stolen bases across 37 games at High-A. He wasn't necessarily a power hitter at Virginia Tech, but has already shown the ability to lift the ball over the fence as a pro. On the downside, Cross is only hitting .212 with 55 strikeouts from 37 games, so it appears his contact skills have diminished either due to the ascension of levels or hitting for power. He'll need to find a happy medium as the No. 9 overall pick in 2022. But to be fair, Cross has already looked much better this month.

Jean Pinto, P, BAL – Pinto is back at High-A again to begin 2023, but didn't pitch that poorly a season ago. Walks were his main drawback with 46 from 91.2 innings. Pinto still managed to limit the overall damage with a respectable 3.83 ERA while fanning 103 batters. He's still only 22, but appears ready to take his talents to the next level with a 2.97 ERA and 51:13 K:BB in only 33.1 innings across eight starts. Pinto also keeps the ball down while only giving up one homer and should see Double-A soon enough.

Kyle Hurt, P, LAD – Hurt may still ultimately end up in the bullpen, but his numbers this season are hard to ignore. In eight outings - five of those starts - the 24-year-old righty has posted a 1.17 ERA and 44:6 K:BB over 23 innings. Hurt's refined control is the most notable difference as he walked 59 batters last year across two levels. The added baserunners caused his ERA to skyrocket, though that hasn't been the case so far. If Hurt can stay healthy and this newfound control is legitimate, the Dodgers may have a late bloomer on their hands.

DOWNGRADE

Elijah Green, OF, WAS – The questions persist for Green, who's as athletically gifted as they come, but may not be able to hit for enough average for it to matter having struck out a staggering 63 times in only 33 contests at Low-A. He's still 19, but will require some seasoning - yet already physically mature - making his offensive projection even more difficult. Green has already registered 16 steals and his raw power is expected to translate to real-game situation, but he's only batting .238. He remains a project who probably won't reach the Majors for several years even if he ultimately lives up to his lofty potential.

Kumar Rocker, P, TEX – It seems like Rocker has been around forever, yet this was in fact his first taste of professional ball. That's because he wasn't signed by Mets after being selected in the 2021 Draft due to injury concerns, then didn't pitch after being selected and signed by the Rangers in 2022 due to a shoulder ailment. Rocker took the mound this year to rave reviews with a 42:7 K:BB in just 28 innings at High-A while opposing batter have gone .202 against. Unfortunately, fears of injury have proven warranted, as he's undergone Tommy John surgery and will be sidelined through at least half of 2024 - if not longer. By the time Rocker returns in an official capacity, he will almost be 25 without having reached Double-A or higher.