Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The All-Star Game and Home Run Derby celebrate baseball's current stars, but the festivities have also become a celebration of what's to come with the Futures Game showcasing the next wave of potential superstars. Talent littered the diamond, but Cubs' top prospect Brennen Davis clubbed two home runs to lead a star-studded affair. The other headliners were Tampa Bay hurler Shane Baz dominating his inning, Cade Cavalli (Nationals) and Luis Medina (Yankees) beating up the radar gun by throwing numerous pitches in the triple-digits, and hometown phenom Michael Toglia hitting one out of the park.

The MLB Draft also started Sunday and the Pirates kicked it off with the selection of Henry Davis, a powerful catcher from Louisville at No. 1. Most organizations were largely lauded for the consistency of the picks in the opening round. Only time will tell who flounders and who becomes the next face(s) of baseball, but there's certainly no shortage of prospects coming through the pipelines.

Let's take a look at some other neophytes looking to make a name for themselves in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Cal Raleigh, C, SEA – Raleigh went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in his major-league debut Sunday, but that is not the headline here. Even with Luis Torrens hitting better of late and Tom Murphy still on the roster - among other options - the M's felt confident enough in Raleigh to promote him to the bigs prior to the All-Star break and while still sitting 3.5 games out of the final Wildcard spot.  That speaks volumes to the level of comfort the organization has in him. It would seem odd to call Raleigh up to ride the pine, so expect him to play at least half of the games behind the plate following the resumption of play.

Ryan Pepiot, P, LAD – The Barometer highlighted Pepiot earlier this season, and he hasn't slowed down since. The Butler product has produced a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 63:21 K:BB in only 21 innings at Double-A. While Josiah Gray has returned from injury and would have been the surefire bet to be the first top-notch arm from the system to see the top level, Pepiot's emergence combined with Gray's rehabilitation could make the former just as likely to provide some extra innings down the stretch in 2021 - especially if Trevor Bauer doesn't return.

Caleb Kilian, P, SF – It's difficult to argue with Kilian's production this year having appeared at two different levels and finding little resistance at either stop. He began at High-A, where he posted a 1.25 ERA and 32:1 K:BB in 21.2 innings. Yes, you read that correctly. Kilian was rewarded with a bump up to Double-A, where he hasn't missed a beat with a 2.09 ERA and 47:6 K:BB over 47.1 innings. The command/control is clearly special and he keeps the ball down with just one homer allowed across 12 total starts.  Kilian boasts four pitches he can throw for strikes and is also athletic. Needless to say, he's been one of the biggest risers of the first half.

Drew Waters, OF, ATL – Call this a hunch, but Waters should see the Braves lineup in short order. The season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna will only exacerbate the need for Atlanta to get some pop into their lineup, and Waters provides more hit tool than the other option, Cristian Pache. The current outfield contingent of Abraham Almonte, Ehire Adrianza, Guillermo Heredia and Orlando Arcia do not inspire much confidence, especially for a team considered a World Series contender before the season. Waters is surging of late hitting .438 with two home runs, eight RBI and three steals over his last eight contests. It's almost like he can taste that big league premiere.

CHECK STATUS

Nick Allen, SS, OAK – Do not let Allen's size - or lack thereof - fool you. He's dangerous and a prospect on the rise in the A's organization. Already considered to have one of the best gloves in all of the minors, Allen's improvement with the bat has been most noteworthy in 2021 slashing .316/.372/.472 with six home runs, 29 RBI and eight steals through 47 games at Double-A. He's already smashed his previous career high in home runs, and the possibility of double-digit dingers and double-digit swipes make him an intriguing prospect - even at just 5'8", 166.  Allen has received rave reviews this season, and with no clear answer at shortstop at the big league level, Allen could get the chance to snatch the job as early as 2022.

Hunter Brown, P, HOU – Brown has racked up 60 strikeouts in only 37 innings at Double-A. A fifth-round pick out of Division II Wayne State in 2019, he's missed a bevy of bats but has also experienced some control woes issuing 23 free passes leading to increased traffic on the basepaths and a 4.86 ERA. Brown may end up being better suited for a bullpen role down the line based on his fastball/curveball combination. He's utilized the curveball much more effectively than either the slider he showcased in college or the changeup that remains a work in progress. The strikeout stuff is elite, but Brown has to work on his command and development of secondary offerings to stick in the starting rotation.

Spencer Steer, SS, MIN – Steer has always had a keen eye at the dish, but the improvement of his power stroke has really helped his stock. He's clubbed 10 home runs in 45 games at High-A, then hit four more in 12 at Double-A. Considered a safe selection in 2019 with no loud tools to speak of, Steer's added pop has raised some eyebrows in prospect circles. He draws plenty of walks and could start to figure into the Twinkies' future plans if he can prove he can hit for average at the higher levels.

Matt Fraizer, OF, PIT – Fraizer has enjoyed an explosive start to 2021 slashing .330/.412/.603 with 15 home runs, 37 RBI and eight steals in 56 contests at High-A. He's played sparingly over the last two years due to injuries at UofA followed by the pandemic, but perhaps it's not surprising the 23-year-old is dominating opposing pitching at this level. Fraizer should see Double-A shortly, which will be a better gauge of his future prowess. That being said, his combination of power, speed and ability to hit for average from the left side should give the Pirates something to smile about.

DOWNGRADE

Simeon Woods Richardson, P, TOR – I'm still a huge fan of Woods Richardson, but he's been roughed up recently having allowed six runs in three straight outings to raise his ERA from 2.70 on Jun. 20 to 5.53 on Jul. 10. He was uncharacteristically wild on Jun. 26 issuing seven free passes in only 2.2 innings. Woods Richardson has also been bitten by the long ball over the latest three starts giving up one home run in each. By contrast, he only surrendered six homers in all of 2019 from 26 starts. At just 20, the future remains exceedingly bright. But with his recent struggles combined with success of Alek Manoah, the Blue Jays may be less inclined to rush Woods Richardson to The Show.

Chase Strumpf, 2B, CHC – Admittedly, Strumpf hasn't played much since being drafted in 2019, but the small samples we have seen don't scream "fantasy stud" with six home runs and six steals in 87 games across short stints at five levels. Perhaps more alarmingly, his strikeouts have been higher than anticipated while his average has not been up to snuff, save for a 16-game stretch at High-A to start the year. Since being promoted to Double-A, Strumpf is hitting just .175/.291/.316 through 32 appearances. We certainly need a bigger sample of data, but to date he has the look of a utility infielder more than anything else.

Kyren Paris, SS, LAA – I'm intrigued by Paris and his skill set of speed, patience at the dish and the ability to make contact, but he's been unable to stay on the field during his brief professional tenure. A fractured hamate bone limited him to only three games following the 2019 Draft, and he's been on the Injured List since May. Paris produced 10 steals in 16 games prior to being sidelined while also hitting .297 and sporting an OBP of .423.  He's still just a teenager so his long-term development should not be affected, but the lack of reps since being drafted certainly can't be viewed as a positive.