Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The long-awaited debut for Chicago White Sox prospect Dylan Cease is finally upon us.  Surely, the White Sox brass read the repeated demands in this article and felt the pressure to call up their prized phenom.  Despite coming off arguably his worst stretch of the season, Cease will start the first of the two games in Wednesday's doubleheader.  Despite a rather pedestrian ERA in Triple-A, Cease does have 73 strikeouts in 68.1 innings, yielding just four home runs in 15 starts.  Facing the Detroit Tigers should help his cause, as the Tigers own the worst OPS and have produced the fewest runs and home runs in the American League - and by a wide margin.  If the 23-year-old righty shines, he should take over a more permanent slot in the starting rotation for the pitching-starved White Sox.

Let's take a look at some other players in the headlines in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Braxton Garrett, P, MIA – Garrett represents yet another high upside arm that is flourishing in the Miami system.  He missed all of the 2018 campaign following Tommy John surgery, but the southpaw has been terrific thus far in 2019 with a 2.86 ERA and 82:24 K:BB in just 63 innings for High-A Jupiter.  His last start was perhaps his best, as he tossed seven scoreless innings while surrendering just one hit, walking one batter and striking out 11.  Garrett is at his best when working down in the zone; in fact, his 1.84 GO:AO shows he induces far more groundouts than flyouts.  The 21-year old has an easy, fluid delivery, excellent command of his low-90's fastball and a wipeout curveball.  The development of his changeup will go a long ways towards determining his future potential, but even without it, Garrett is enjoying plenty of success and has found himself once again on the rise.

Bo Bichette, SS, TOR – Is Bichette primed to join Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the big club?  Since coming back from a broken hand which sidelined him for about two months, Bichette has been on a tear by hitting .389 with six steals over his last 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo.  Freddy Galvis is still hitting well, meaning Bichette will likely have to find some other way to see every day at-bats with the big club, and the aforementioned Biggio has been playing second base along with journeyman Eric Sogard.  Biggio could also play the outfield, though there still appears to be a glut of infielders with Brandon Drury also in the mix.  As such, Bichette may have to wait a bit before making his MLB debut.  However, a debut within the next month - assuming he stays healthy - is not out of the question.

Nolan Jones, 3B, CLE – Jones is an extremely underrated prospect who seems to get overlooked for some reason.  The 21-year-old has recorded a .438 On-Base Percentage while drawing 62 walks in 73 games for High-A Lynchburg.  Jones is also batting .287, after hitting a combined .283 between Low-A and High-A in 2018.  His power is still developing, but there are signs of promise as he hit 19 home runs last year but already has six this season in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League.  Only three batters currently have double-digit home runs in the Carolina League, as compared to 13 in the hitter-friendly California League.  Jones has been even better of late, hitting .306 over his last 10 games.  Overall, Jones has an eagle eye at the dish, can hit for average, and his home run numbers do not necessarily indicate his power potential.

Daulton Varsho, C, ARI – Varsho is among the top catching prospects in baseball, but whether that is due to his own success or the dearth of catching phenoms currently in the minors is up for debate.  Still, he has been selected to the Futures Game by hitting .264/.350/.437 with nine home runs, 32 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 64 games for Double-A Jackson.  Varsho also performed well in the Arizona Fall League, following up on swiping 19 bags in 83 games at High-A in 2018.  He's an above-average athlete who could end up playing other positions, though will remain at catcher for now.  He makes consistent contact with the bat, as the extremely low walk and strikeout totals will show.  At his peak, Varsho could hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases, which would be extremely valuable from the catching position from a fantasy perspective.  However, it remains to be seen if he can hit either of those markers.  Nevertheless, no matter how the argument shakes out, Varsho is a surefire top-10 catching prospect in the minor leagues right now.

CHECK STATUS

Jonathan India, 3B, CIN – I'm just not as high on India as other prospect pundits.  For a supposedly polished college product with improved pitch recognition, his numbers have been anything but extraordinary.  India has yet to hit above .261 at any level during his brief time in the minors, and is currently hitting .257 through 73 games at High-A.  While it is true that the Florida State League does depress home runs, India has registered just 27 RBI over that span.  And there are 36 players in the Florida State League with more RBI than India this season.  He does not project to steal double-digit bases either, and is still striking out about once per game.  India is hitting just .219 over his last 10 games with no home runs or stolen bases.  He is supposed to have all the tools to hit for average and power, but thus far his production has lagged behind his talent.

Matt Thaiss, 1B, LAA – The 24-year-old is blocked by the likes of Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Bour at 1B/DH, so the odds of him making an impact for the big club this season are thin.  That being said, Thaiss continues to rake.  He has never hit below .274 in any year since entering the minors as a first-round pick in 2016, and is on pace to shatter last season's career-high of 16 home runs by slashing .275/.392/.482 with 14 home runs and 49 RBI through 78 games for Triple-A Salt Lake.  Perhaps most notably, Thaiss has almost as many walks (59) as strikeouts (63), and patience at the dish has been his calling card.  He has impressed of late, hitting .400 with three home runs and 10 RBI over his last 10 contests.  Thaiss has limited speed and may be a better actual player than fantasy asset due to his lack of consistent home run power, but he remains a productive hitter in the Halos organization.

Devin Mann, 2B, LAD – Double-play partner Jeter Downs has been getting more publicity this season, and perhaps rightly so thanks to 14 home runs and 18 steals in 72 games at just 20 years of age at High-A Rancho Cucamonga.  While Mann does not have the speed of Downs, he has actually outpaced him in home runs.  The 22-year-old Mann was a fifth-round pick in last year's draft, but has already cracked 17 home runs thus far in 2019 - which is second in the California League.  The question is, has Mann been buoyed by the hitter-friendly confines of the California League?  After all, he hit just two home runs in 63 games at Low-A a season ago while managing 15 in three seasons at Louisville.  However, he credits adjustments to his swing allowing him to unleash his previously untapped power.  We may not get a real answer until he reaches Double-A, but for now, the 6-foot-4, 180-lb infielder has suddenly become a power prospect on the rise.

Cal Raleigh, C, SEA – The M's were extremely aggressive with Raleigh, allowing him to skip Low-A all together and begin the 2019 campaign at High-A Modesto.  A third-round pick in the 2018 draft, Raleigh has been surging of late.  Over his last 10 contests, the 22-year-old switch-hitter is batting .375 with five home runs and 13 RBI while posting almost as many walks (six) as strikeouts (seven).  Raleigh's overall slash line is not spectacular, but his power is evident and switch-hitting backstops who can actually hit are not easy to come by.  It remains to be seen what he will do at the higher levels, but his stock does appear to be on the rise. 

DOWNGRADE

Calvin Mitchell, OF, PIT – Mitchell more than held his own as a 19-year-old at Low-A in 2018, but has struggled with the bump up to High-A this campaign.  While he's still hitting .260 on the year, he has had a rough stretch of late, batting just .150 with 19 strikeouts over his last 10 games.  Mitchell's strikeouts are up and his walks are down this season, as he has fanned 98 times while drawing just 16 walks in 71 games.  Mitchell has struck for nine home runs, but he's going to have to provide significant pop to make up for his increase in strikeouts.  He's still just 20, but the strikeouts are a huge red flag, as is the lack of patience at the dish.

Grant Lavigne, 1B, COL – Lavigne destroyed the Pioneer League following his draft selection in 2018, but his introduction to full-season ball has proved far less notable.  He's slashing just .244/.352/.354 through 76 games at Low-A with only 20 extra-base hits in 271 at-bats - including only five home runs.  In an era where launch angle rules, Lavigne hits far more grounders than fly balls.  He does possess a nice grasp of the strike zone and is not afraid to take a walk, but he's largely been inconsistent in making meaningful contact.  Lavigne is only 19 with plenty of time to right the ship, but his 2019 campaign has up to now looked surprisingly disappointing.

Sam Huff, C, TEX – Huff parlayed a scorching start at Low-A into an invitation to the Futures Game this weekend, bashing 15 home runs in the first 30 games of the season.  However, he has cooled off considerably since being promoted, hitting just .216 with 14 strikeouts over his last 10 games for High-A Down East.  A seventh-round pick in 2016, Huff was barely a prospect coming into the season.  His K:BB remains concerning, walking 14 times compared to 84 strikeouts in 75 games this season between the two levels.  Selling out for power is no longer frowned upon in this day and age, but the inability to draw a walk shows a lack of patience as well as strike zone recognition that very few players - if any - can get away with.  In sum, Huff may have started off with a bang in 2019, but his future remains murky for the Rangers.

Jarren Duran, OF, BOS – Another participant in the Futures Game, Duran burst onto the scene by slashing an absurd .387/.456/.543 with four home runs, 19 RBI and 18 stolen bases in 50 games at High-A Salem.  However, Duran has suffered from a similar fate as Huff, as the bump in levels has caused him to come crashing back down to earth.  In 24 games for Double-A Portland, Duran is hitting just .211, has been caught stealing more times than actual successful thefts at this level and has disappointed a horrific 24:2 K:BB.  This is the first resistance Duran has found during his brief time in the minors and the sample size is small, so this could just be a blip on the radar as he adjusts to the pitching at this level.  However, with limited power and a lack of overwhelming speed, it will be interesting to see how his skill set translates at the higher levels.