Minor League Barometer: Pair of Cody Reeds Pitching Well

A critical and perhaps overlooked part of the evaluation of a hitting prospect is their approach at the plate. More specifically, it's their ability to work the count and take a walk. Though these are not always the sexy fantasy stats that make owners gush, these statistics can go a long ways toward determining a future prospect's outlook. The game has certainly changed over the years, since many of the best hitters nowadays strike out far more than in years past. Don Mattingly, as the AL MVP for the New York Yankees in 1985, hit .324 with 35 home runs and 145 RBI. He struck out 41 times that season. Josh Donaldson, the 2015 AL MVP, hit .297 with 41 home runs and 123 RBI. He was fanned 133 times. The value of making contact has clearly eroded, since as long as a player can hit the long ball once in a while, a team can usually live with the strikeout.

One of the most difficult prospects to get a handle on, at least from my perspective, is White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson. Considered one of the top prospects in baseball, Anderson is a leadoff hitter and shortstop with a career high of nine home runs in a season. He stole 49 bases last season, yet he strikes out at an alarming rate. Anderson had 114 strikeouts in 125 games at Double-A last season, and that rate has gotten even worse in 2016. The 22-year-old has 38 strikeouts in 33 games this year and does not draw many walks (five walks in those 33 contests). Nevertheless, Anderson is a lifetime .298 hitter in the minors, and there does not seem to be too much concern over his impatience at the plate.

There are always special players that simply do not walk a lot. Robinson Cano immediately comes to mind. However, those types of players are few and far between. While Cano has far more power than a player like Anderson, the fact that Anderson should become a leadoff hitter makes the inability to draw a walk, or even make contact at times, all the more troubling. Prospecting is an inexact science and others might disagree with my concerns about Anderson.
Enough rambling, though. Let's take a look at who's up and who's down in this week's edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Ryan Cordell, OF, TEX – Few players are having a better start to the season than Cordell, who is absolutely raking for Double-A Frisco. The 24-year-old outfielder is slashing .355/.407/.702 with nine home runs, 33 RBI and two steals through 34 games. He's tied for first in the Texas League in both home runs and RBI, and second in batting behind a budding star, Harrison Bader of the St. Louis Cardinals organization. The Rangers have an extremely crowded outfield, which seems to be the only thing holding Cordell back at this point. He could even end up being trade bait. Nevertheless, Cordell has been overlooked since being drafted out of Liberty College in the 11th round in 2013, but perhaps he should be gaining more notoriety given his recent performance.

Yoan Moncada, 2B, BOS – There's certainly an argument to be made that Moncada is the best hitting prospect in baseball right now. The 20-year-old switch-hitter from Cuba is batting .328/.458/.516 through 33 games at High-A Salem. Though he does have 33 strikeouts, he also has 27 walks over that span. His handle of the strike zone is well beyond his years, but his speed may be his greatest asset. Moncada has already swiped 24 bags, and has been caught just five times. He also has the body type to develop a home-run stroke, as evidence by his three home runs and 20 RBI as well. Add in that he plays a typically shallow fantasy position, and Moncada should be considered the cream of the minor league hitting crop.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, KC – The 22-year-old O'Hearn has been a nice find for the Royals. An eighth-round pick in 2014 out of Sam Houston State, O'Hearn set the Pioneer League ablaze following the draft. He held his own at Low-A in 81 games the next season, slugging 19 home runs in 81 games before being promoted to High-A. While he floundered a bit at that level toward the end of 2015, he quickly rebounded to begin the 2016 campaign, slashing .352/.408/.670 with seven home runs and 18 RBI in 22 contests. O'Hearn is now at Double-A and through 10 games shows no signs of slowing down. He is batting .302 with one home run and eight RBI over that span. Strikeouts continue to be a concern for O'Hearn, along with a lack of patience at the dish. Still, his power looks legitimate and he is a lifetime .303 hitter in the minors.

Cody Reed, P, CIN – Reed was more of an afterthought in the Johnny Cueto deal, though the success of his breakout campaign last year has spilled over into 2016. Reed has proven that his 2015 season was not a fluke. He had demonstrated control problems prior to that time, but made huge strides in 2015. That resulted in an ERA of 2.41 in 145.2 innings last season, accompanied by a 144:42 K:BB. This season has been no different despite being bumped up a level, as Reed possesses a 1.88 ERA and 27:7 K:BB through 28.2 innings at Triple-A Louisville. Though the Reds are not going anywhere in 2016 and feel no need to rush Reed to the majors, they likely won't be able to hold him down for much longer if he continues to pitch like this.

CHECK STATUS

Cody Reed, P, ARI - This is not a typo. There are two Cody Reed that are both left-handed pitchers in the minors, and both are pitching well right now. Cincinnati's version has more upside, is further along in his development and is considered a better prospect overall. However, don't discount Arizona's iteration. The 19-year-old lefty, a second-round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2014, is off to a sterling start to the 2016 campaign. He has a sparkling 0.78 ERA, along with a 36:1 K:BB in 23 innings. Yes, you read that correctly. Reed is a burly southpaw with three pitches, though he is not overpowering with his fastball. He may not have front-line starter potential, but it's tough to argue with the results thus far.

Christin Stewart, OF, DET – The minor-league leader in home runs in 2016, Stewart has crushed 13 home runs in 36 games. Of course, he's also fanned 39 times over that span while hitting just .246 for Low-A Lakeland. Still, the 22-year-old was a first-round selection last season, and genuine power is difficult to come by these days. He is the best hitter in the Detroit system, though he does remind some of a shorter, more patient Steven Moya. Stewart does not have the holes in his swing that the massive Moya does, though he still needs to work on making better contact as he ascends through the minors.

Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS – While High-A Salem teammate Yoan Moncada has been scalding the ball this season, Devers did not begin the 2016 campaign with quite the same success. Devers does seem to be coming around, though. Over his last 10 games, the 19-year-old third baseman is batting .333 with one home run and eight RBI. To put in perspective just how poorly Devers fared at the plate prior to that time, though, he is still batting under .200 for the season. Devers has huge upside with a ton of room to grow, but is nowhere near as MLB-ready as Moncada. He's a great player to stash in keeper leagues, but his impact will likely not come until 2018 at the earliest.

Yohander Mendez, P, TEX – Mendez has been ultra-impressive at High-A High Desert in 2016. The 21-year-old southpaw has a 2.89 ERA and 38:10 K:BB in the hitter-friendly confines of the California League. Opposing batters are hitting a paltry .188 against him, and he is inducing a bevy of ground balls (1.65 GO:AO). The knock on Mendez is whether he will be able to stick in the rotation or be relegated to the bullpen. He started in the bullpen last season and has a history of elbow problems, so it remains to be seen if he can handle the increased innings load as a starter. He has never pitched more than 66.1 innings in a single season since entering the minors in 2012. In addition, his fastball has movement but is not overwhelming, and he is still working on a breaking ball. He does throw strikes, though. The stock of Mendez appears to be trending upward, but be wary of the red flags and uncertainty regarding his future role.

DOWNGRADE

Raul Mondesi, SS, KC – Mondesi has been suspended for 50 games due to the presence of Clenbuterol, an anabolic steroid, in his system. Interestingly, Mondesi was able to negotiate down the suspension from 80 games after proving that the positive test resulted from cold medicine that he obtained in the Dominican Republic. Despite what seems like an honest mistake, Mondesi will certainly have a more difficult time making an impact at the big league level in 2016 due to the suspension. He won't be eligible to return until the summer, and has still yet to appear in a regular season MLB game, despite playing a role in the World Series win for the Royals last year.

AJ Reed, 1B, HOU – A rough beginning to the season for Reed at the plate has been compounded by a hamstring injury that has landed him on the Disabled List. Reed was in the running for the starting first base job in spring training, but the Astros decided to go with the unknown Tyler White. After a fast start, White has come back down to earth. However, Reed has been having struggles of his own, batting just .229/.333/.457 in 28 games for Triple-A Fresno. Reed does have six home runs and 21 RBI, but most of that production came in the first 20 or so games of the year. Reed had been scuffling prior to the injury, hitting just .167 with one home run and three RBI in the 10 games prior to the injury. The severity of the ailment is unknown, but Reed should still make his MLB premiere this season. It just may be a little later than initially expected.

Jacob Faria, P, TB – Faria was a bit overlooked last season. The 22-year-old righty was 17-4 with a 1.92 ERA between High-A and Double-A. Opposing batters hit just .197 against him, and he fanned 159 batters in 149.2 innings. However, Faria did walk 52 batters over that span, and his suspect control has come back to haunt him in 2016. Faria has issued 28 walks in 44 innings, leading to a rather bloated 4.91 ERA. He has walked at least three batters in five of the last six outings, including one start in which he tallied seven free passes. The strikeout stuff is evident, but the walks can be dangerous. Additional baserunners will almost inevitably come back to bite pitchers, so Faria needs to work on his control in order to succeed at the higher levels.

Rio Ruiz, 3B, ATL – The Braves essentially have a dead spot at third base. Daniel Castro and Kelly Johnson are alternating at the hot corner, but neither is a long-term solution. The Braves have rightly soured on Hector Olivera, who is currently suspended due to a domestic dispute and has been placed on the trading block. Ruiz would appear to be the next man up, but he has been very inconsistent. The 21-year-old is batting a putrid .111 over his last 10 games for Triple-A Gwinnett. He has hit just seven home runs in 163 games above High-A, and his career high is 12 home runs, which came back in 2013 at Low-A. Ruiz is still just 21 years of age, but a decline in plate discipline as well as the lack of development of a power stroke has certainly caused Ruiz's prospect luster to wear off.