Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds & More Expert MLB Picks and Predictions for June 16

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Published on June 16, 2024

MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Sunday, June 16

The New York Yankees are the first team to 50 wins this season, but the Baltimore Orioles are just 2.5 games behind them in the AL East standings. The Phillies were given two days off for travel to London, England to face the New York Mets for two games last weekend and then a day off to return to the USA. They lost the opportunity to get to 50 wins first, but truly that is nearly irrelevant for them as they lead the NL East by eight games over the Atlanta Braves.

Through games played in June, the Seattle Mariners and the Yankees are tied for the best record at 10-4 then the surging 9-4 Cincinnati Reds, who find themselves in third place and just seven games behind the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Marlins have won just two of their last 12 games played and the A's have won just three of their 13 games in June. As a pizza-money size bet I like betting on the Reds to win the most games in June.

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Rubber-Game Results in 2024

Home teams are 65-60 in the rubber game of a three-games series, averaging a –122-favorite wager for a –7-percent ROI. If the rubber game involves divisional foes the road team is 20-15 (57 percent) averaging a 122-underdog wager for a highly profitable 24-percent ROI. There are three divisional games on the Sunday card involving the rubber game of their series.

The matchups are the Brewers hosting the Reds, the Cubs hosting the Cardinals, and the Red Sox hosting the Yankees. Since 2004, there have been 42 rubber games between the Yankees and the Red Sox, who are just 18-24 averaging a 104-underdog wager for –15-percent ROI. When the Red Sox hosted the rubber game, they are just 10-14 averaging a –113 wager for a –22-percent ROI. So, history gives the edge to the Yankees, who find themselves a –135-favorite Sunday.

There have been 36 rubber games between the Cardinals and Cubs, who are 20-16 averaging a 113-underdog bet for a profitable 15-percent ROI since 2004. The Cubs are 9-8 averaging a 105-underdog bet for a 6-percent ROI when they have been the host in the rubber game.

The Brewers have played 41 rubber games against the Reds, going 22-19 averaging a –115 wager for a –3-percent ROI. However, when the Brewers have hosted the rubber game, they are an impressive 14-8 averaging a –134-favorite for a profitable 14-percent ROI since 2004.

The best season of the past 20 for home teams host the rubber game against a divisional foe was in 2018 when they went 72-43 (63 percent) averaging a –112-favorite for a 14-percent ROI. The worst season for divisional hosts occurred in the 2020 COVID-19 season where they went 18-28 (39 percent), averaging a –108 wager for a –25-percent ROI. Aside from 2020, the worst full season occurred in 2012 when the hosts went 52-75 (41 percent) averaging a –112-favorite for a –26-percent ROI.

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The Best Bets for Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The betting markets have the Brewers priced as –135 favorites and the Reds priced as 120-underdogs with a posted total of 9.0 runs. To bet Over 9.0 runs requires –120 vig as the betting public sees this a higher-scoring game today. Game time is set for 2:10 p.m. ET.

The Brewers will have Colin Rea on the hill. He is 4-2 in 11 starts with a decent 3.54 ERA and a 1.282 WHIP, including 44 strikeouts and 18 walks. He is much better starting at home posting a 3-1 record in six starts with a 2.73 ERA and a 0.991 WHIP, including 26 strikeouts and just seven free passes spanning 36.1 innings of work.

The Reds will send Frankie Montas to the hill and he is 3-5 in 12 starts with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.391 WHIP, including 44 strikeouts and 23 walks. A starter strives to have a 3:1 or higher strikeout-to-walk ratio and being under 2:1 as Montas is reflects poor control and location of his pitches. He has made three starts against divisional foes and was hammered in all of them. He has lasted just 12.1 innings combined and sports an awful 7.30 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP.

The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day

The following betting algorithm has posted a 193-77 record for 72 percent winning bets over the past 25 seasons and the requirements are:

Bet on all NL favorites.
That favorite is starting a pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or lower in the current season.
That team is coming off a game in which the bullpen threw 8.0 or more innings (Opener Included)

This algorithm identifies the Brewers as the best bet opportunity for Father's Day.

The First-Inning 'NERF' Bet

The above algorithm has also produced a 70-49 record for 59-percent winning bets that No Run will be scored in the first inning.

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