This article is part of our MLB Team Previews series.
Miami Marlins Preview: Marlins 3.0
Though the Miami Marlins are among the youngest generation of MLB franchises, they have managed to twice tool up for a big time run, each netting a 90-win season and a World Series trophy. It looked as though the team was "all in" once-again after making a couple of big splashes in free agency prior to the 2012 season, but that veteran squad was quickly disassembled to replenish the system with elite young talent. In the two years since, the front office has seen phenomenal progress out of young outfielders Christian Yelich and Marcel Ozuna while watching both Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton blossom into perennial award candidates and has followed that up with an aggressive offseason that puts the Marlins in position to contend once again.
The offseason reboot focused on two primary goals: surround Giancarlo Stanton with a stronger supporting cast and sure up the top of the rotation until Jose Fernandez is ready to join get back on the bump sometime in mid-summer. Though the minor league stock took a bit of a hit through a number of deals, the Marlins were able to add speedster Dee Gordon, veteran hit-machine Martin Prado and slugger Michael Morse to balance a lineup anchored by Stanton and rising stud Yelich.
The pitching also got a makeover with the additions of Mat Latos, Dan Haren and David Phelps via trade. Latos, looking to bounce back from an injury marred campaign, will compete with 2014 breakout Henderson Alvarez for opening day duties and gives the Marlins' rotation a solid foundation for the first couple months of the year.
Given the franchise's short history, it's impossible to say how long this Miami core will remain intact, but in the short term, there are certainly plenty of reasons for optimism in South Florida. Is another 90-win season and a championship run in this team's future? Time will tell, but the latest version of the Miami Marlins certainly has ability to compete for a playoff spot and plenty of fantasy appeal.
Offseason Moves
The Marlins were one of the most active teams early on in the offseason and while their biggest splash was inking their own Giancarlo Stanton to a 13-year $325 million deal, the team also rounded up a number of All-Star talents.
Acquired Mat Latos from the Reds
Miami bought low on Latos as the 27-year-old looks to re-establish his value as an ace heading into a contract year. In 2014, Latos suffered a spring knee injury and later a flexor mass strain that cost him a couple MPH and a half a season of work, ultimately spoiling his campaign. In the four years prior, the starter compiled a 3.27 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 rate while averaging 200 innings pitched per season with the Padres and the Reds. A healthy Latos is a fantastic get for Miami and spacious Marlins Park is the perfect setting for the 6-foot-6 right-hander to bounce back in a big way.
Acquired Dan Haren from the Dodgers
Though it wasn't always a certainty that he'd ever put on a Marlins' uniform as the veteran right-hander considered retirement, he has more recently indicated his intention to report to spring training and compete for a rotation spot. Consistently solid when healthy, Haren has suffered with back problems over the past several years that tend to really impact his effectiveness. All things considered, Miami is a nice landing spot for the homer-prone Haren and there's value to be had so long as the veteran is healthy.
Signed Mike Morse (Giants), acquired Martin Prado (Yankees) and Dee Gordon (Dodgers)
Casey McGehee and Garrett Jones are out, while the rag-tag combination of Jeff Baker, Derek Dietrich and Donovan Solano will battle over bench at-bats following the Marlins infield makeover. Gordon will slot in at second base and hit atop the Marlins' lineup -- something he did in 133 of 148 games for the Dodgers last year -- while trying to duplicate his massive success on the base paths (64 steals). There are some concerns with Gordon, namely his .300 OBP during the second half of 2014, but he'll be good for plenty of speed and runs perched in the leadoff spot.
Prado flipped a switch after being dealt to New York ahead of trade deadline last season, slashing .316/.336/.541 in the 137 plate appearances he had before his season ended after an emergency appendectomy. The 31-year-old infielder continues to mash lefties despite an overall dip in effectiveness, and maintains a three-year .289/.339/.423 slash line. Likely to bat somewhere between fourth and seventh in the lineup, Prado should be in position to post career-best RBI totals while providing consistent production across the board.
Morse comes to Miami on a modest two-year deal fresh off of a World Series win with the Giants. Back tightness in June and an oblique injury in September likely limited Morse power in the second half, as he hit 14 of his 16 home runs prior to the All-Star break, so a return to full health will be critical for his success heading into the 2015 season.
Signed Ichiro Suzuki (Yankees)
Ichiro was forced to settle for a contract with the Marlins as a fourth outfielder after finding chilly conditions on the open market. The future Hall-of-Famer does not project to get all that much playing time with Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna gobbling up every day at-bats in the outfield, so the veteran will have to slowly chip his way towards 3,000 hits. His work ethic and commitment to the game will return value as a veteran presence even if his impact on the field is not overwhelming.
Signed Aaron Crow (Royals)
Crow was brought in to provide some bullpen depth for the Marlins and represents a nice low-cost gamble as he is coming off his worst season as a pro (4.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.19 K/9 in 59 IP for the Royals). Crow could work his way into a high-leverage role if he regains his 2011-13 form.
Acquired David Phelps (Yankees)
Phelps joined the Marlins as part of the Martin Prado deal, giving the team some rotation depth behind Latos, Alvarez and Jarred Cosart. He made 17 starts with 15 relief appearances for the Yankees last year, logging a 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 113 innings pitched, but should could hold some appeal if he's able to nudge his strikeout rate up just a bit with the switch to the National League.
Traded away Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, Andrew Heaney, Anthony DeSclafani, Brian Flynn, Chris Hatcher, Enrique Hernandez, Austin Barnes and Chad Wallach
Eovaldi and Jones are the most established names to be dealt away by the Marlins this offseason, but the plethora of young starters moved -- headlined by Andrew Heaney -- is what could burn the team long-term. While Miami is clearly making a strong effort to put together a contending team in 2015, it is difficult to watch such a strong farm system depleted so quickly.
Projected Lineup
1. Dee Gordon
2. Christian Yelich
3. Giancarlo Stanton
4. Mike Morse
5. Marcel Ozuna
6. Martin Prado
7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
8. Adeiny Hechavarria
Given the offensive turnover, manager Mike Redmond will mix and match throughout the spring to find his go-to lineup card. While it's easy to envision Yelich and Stanton in the third and fourth spot, respectively, the team saw phenomenal results with Stanton hitting in the three-hole while Yelich's on-base ability will play up given a slight boost in volume batting second. Morse, Ozuna, Prado and Saltalamacchia could all shuffle around depending on matchups and all should see plenty of run-producing opportunities.
Projected Rotation
1. Mat Latos
2. Henderson Alvarez
3. Jarred Cosart
4. Dan Haren
5. Tom Koehler/David Phelps
Haren's recent commitment to the team sets the stage for a two-way to be a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation. Koehler checks in as the incumbent and early favorite with Phelps also providing ability as a swingman. It may all be for naught should the remaining four stay healthy, however, as the club is optimistic Jose Fernandez will be ready to re-take his spot atop this list sometime in late-June/early-July following Tommy John surgery.
Bullpen
Closer: Is this the year that Steve Cishek is widely recognized as one of the league's top stoppers? He broke out in a big way in 2013, and continued to provide rock solid numbers in the back of the Marlins' bullpen -- 3.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 39 saves in 43 chances -- over 65.1 innings in 2014. Despite posting an ERA over 3.00 for the first time in his career, Cishek also registered the lowest FIP (2.17) and xFIP (2.54) of his four seasons in the majors. The 28-year-old stopper leans heavily on a sinker-slider combination which has proven effective at producing swings and misses (30.6 K% in 2014) and generating plenty of ground balls (51.1 GB% for his career). Cishek will once-again be locked in at the back end of the Marlins' bullpen and he remains one of the game's most reliable closers.
Key Bullpen Members: A.J. Ramos continues to improve as a setup man and is likely next in line for saves, but the Marlins are at no shortage of bullpen depth. Carter Capps has an electric arm and is still just 24 years old, Bryan Morris was phenomenal last season and Mike Dunn is rock solid. New addition Aaron Crow makes an intriguing gamble as a new addition to the bullpen and could leapfrog most of this list if he returns to form.
Notes of Import, Fantasy or Otherwise:
Can Giancarlo Stanton do it again (and again and again and...)?
Even during an MVP-caliber season in which Stanton set or tied career-best marks in home runs, RBI, walks, stolen bases, runs scored and on-base percentage fantasy owners were reminded of the major knock on Stanton throughout his early career -- injuries. A fastball to the face ended Stanton's 2014 on a scary note, but he is expected to be fully recovered from multiple facial fractures ahead of spring training. Though it's odd to think about, prospective owners can rest somewhat easy given the fluky nature of Giancarlo's season-ending malady. Stanton proved to be well past the lower body injuries that plagued him in 2012-13. The power makes him a legit first rounder and when double-digit speed comes along with it, there is plenty of reason to consider Stanton as the second overall player off the board. We simply can't predict how this 13-year pact with the Marlins is going to work out in the long term, but at the moment Stanton is an elite talent entering his prime -- enjoy the ride.
Who is the real Dee Gordon?
Miami paid a pretty penny to buy high on Gordon's 64-steal breakout, flipping future ace Andrew Heaney in a package for the speedy infielder. His second half featured just four bases on balls in 258 plate appearances, leaving many to wonder if the improved patience show in April and May was a mirage. All told, Gordon's league-leading speed represented top-15 value in standard fantasy formats and 21 of those steals came over 57 second half games. Even if we do see a regression in Dee's offensive approach, he'll be locked in as the everyday leadoff man for the Marlins and is bankable for 50+ steals once again in 2015.
Is Henderson Alvarez an ace?
Unquestionably, Henderson Alvarez can be one of the most dominating pitchers in the major leagues. His three complete game shutouts last year matched all-world talent Clayton Kershaw for the league lead. The 24-year-old compiled an exemplary 2.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 111:33 K:BB ratio in 187 innings leading to a 12-7 record. The right-handed hurler trimmed his walk rate to a career-best 4.3% and generated a 53.8% groundball rate during his break-through campaign -- both numbers that ranked him top-10 in the majors among qualified starters. The extreme ground-ball tendencies make Alvarez a strong option to throw out there every fifth day from a pure baseball standpoint, however, a consistently underwhelming strikeout rate (5.34 K/9 in 2014) caps his fantasy upside in the Mark Buehrle realm.
Strengths: The obvious answer here is the lumbering stud batting smack in the middle of an improving lineup. The Marlins ranked 16th in the league last season in runs per game and should improve upon that number in 2015. The unit is far from elite, but there are pieces in place to do some damage.
The rotation cannot be considered strong at the current moment, but check back in July to see what this staff is up to. If all goes smoothly, the Marlins could head into October capable of matching up with any team in the majors.
Weaknesses: The shortstop position represents a clear weak spot in the lineup as Adeiny Hechavarria has failed to mature into a major league bat. He has shown flashes of plus defense, however, and can return value to the club if he become more consistent in the field.
Experience is perhaps the other major factor holding this team back. Quite a bit of pressure is relying on a young core with essentially no playoff experience. The onus will be on Stanton and some of the veteran acquisitions to shape that character of this young and exciting team.
Rising: Christian Yelich - Yelich backed up his strong finish to the 2013 season with a sophomore breakout at age 22. He truly arrived down the stretch, catching fire during a .339/.425/.459 August as he put up his first 20-steal steal season, scoring 94 runs and collecting 54 RBI along the way. Yelich finished with a steady .284/.362/.402 slash line, showing significant improvement versus left-handed pitching during his second season -- .476 OPS vs. lefties in 2013 and a .819 OPS vs. lefties in 2014. The former first-round draft pick established himself as the Marlins' leadoff hitter in the second half of 2014, though his smooth line-drive swing and advanced approach at the plate would play at almost any lineup position. Yelich will continue provide a solid average, nice speed, and plenty of runs scored given his on-base ability and should get even more opportunity to transform into a legit run-producer as Dee Gordon bumps him down in the batting order.
Declining: Martin Prado - On a team stuffed with young talent, it seems like we've got to pick on one of the few starters over 30. Prado had a phenomenal run late with the Yankees last season, but has watched his SLG dip in each of the past three season and posted a career-worst 14% strikeout rate in 2015. The power won't be saved with the move to Miami's pitcher friendly stadium. All that said, Prado can still make plenty of contact and should continue to age gracefully. Given his defensive versatility and consistent production, he represents a value pick even in this decline phase.
Sleeper: Jarred Cosart - Despite a mediocre start to the 2014 season, Cosart caught fire following his midseason trade to the Marlins, rallying with a 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 60 innings for Miami to close out the season. All told, he notched 180.1 innings during his first full season in the big leagues, winning 13 games with a 3.69 ERA and 115:73 K:BB ratio. Though Cosart does not generate many strikeouts, he induced a 54.2% groundball rate last season while leaning on a heavy 93-mph fastball mixed with a curveball and changeup. Cosart's changeup is an enticing offering for those looking for more strikeout upside. Despite throwing the pitch just 4% of the time last season, the right-handed generated a 27.4 K% with the changeup and could see a bump in strikeout rate if he is able to lean on the offspeed offering more heavily. Cosart should threaten the 200 innings mark as he steadily piles on the workload in 2015, and he has room for growth if he can locate his offerings more consistently, shave down his walk rate and generate a few more swings and misses.
Supersleeper: Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Saltalamacchia came out of the gates hot during his debut season with Miami, batting .310/.416/.595 during his first 27 games. He cooled significantly after that opening month, however, and ended the year with a disappointing .220/.320/.362 line over 373 at-bats with 43 runs scored, 11 home runs and 44 RBI in his age-29 campaign. Many will balk at his potential to bounce back offensively coming off a disappointing season, but it is critical not to underestimate the impact that a league switch can have on a hitter. In addition to the need to adjust to an entire league of new opponents, Salty also had settle in with his own pitching staff. Finding a comfort with your battery-mates can often take a toll on transitioning backstops. Saltalamacchia averaged 18 homers and 28 doubles in 115 games per season from 2011-2013 and posted a career-best 12.3BB% during his first season in Miami. With the league adjustment out of the way and motivation to fend off maturing prospect J.T. Realmuto, Salty has plenty of motivation, potential and opportunity to significantly out-earn his negligible draft day cost.
Top Prospects
Tyler Kolek - The Marlins made the investment in the 6-foot-5 high-school fireballer with the second overall selection of the 2014 draft after he racked up 126 strikeouts with an 0.35 ERA in 60.1 innings as a senior. He struggled in his late-summer introduction to professional ball, giving up 22 hits and 11 earned runs in 22 innings with the Marlins' rookie league team. He struggled with command in his eight games, walking 13 batters, but also added 18 strikeouts over that span. Kolek can pump it up to triple digits with regularity and adds a 12-to-6 curveball, slider, and changeup to his power arsenal. Kolek is likely headed for Low-A to begin the 2015 season, but figures to rise rapidly through a Miami system that has proven to be aggressive in promoting elite-level young talent in recent seasons.
J.T. Realmuto - Since being drafted in the third round of the 2010 draft, Realmuto has progressed steadily through the Marlins' system. He struggled in his first taste of Double-A in 2013, batting .239/.310/.353 over 106 games before improving to a .299/.369/.461 line last season over 97 minor league contests. The strong season earned Realmuto a brief stretch in the majors in mid-June and a handful of September games as well, highlighted by a 3-for-5 effort with a double and a triple during the final week of the season. The 23-year-old backstop stands 6-foot-1 and offers a steady line-drive stroke with a strong contact rate (13.9 K% in the 2014 at Double-A) and patient approach at the dish. Realmuto also offers plus defense behind the plate, gunning down 22-of-58 would-be base stealers last season between the majors and the minors. Jarrod Saltalamacchia remains the Marlins' primary option behind the dish, so Realmuto is most likely headed to Triple-A to further develop his craft and play every day. He could, however, push veteran Jeff Mathis for at-bats down the line and remains locked in among the team's top prospects as the heir apparent behind the dish.
Justin Nicolino - Nicolino is the only holdover from the group that appeared in our preview last season as Andrew Heaney, Colin Moran, and Jake Marisnick have all been moved within the past year. Nicolino improved his stock in the Marlins' farm system, making 25 starts for Double-A Jacksonville in which he hurled 170.1 innings and registered a 2.85 and 1.07 WHIP. He collected a modest 4.3 K/9 and though Nicolino's low strikeout totals are a cooler to his long-term fantasy outlook, the Marlins are surely pleased with the 23-year-old's plus command as he totaled a 4.05 K/BB ratio during his fourth season in the minors. Of course, luck was also a contributor, as Nicolino benefitted from the lowest BABIP of his professional career (.276) during the 2014 campaign. Nicolino is likely to break camp with Triple-A New Orleans after proving his mastery of Double-A competition during a very successful season last year and he's got an outside shot at making starts for the Marlins this summer as well.
Jose Urena - Another year, another step up the Marlins' ladder for Urena, who collected 162 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 13 wins for Double-A Jacksonville during his fourth professional season. Urena continues to show exemplary control for a 23-year-old (1.61 BB/9 in 2014) while striking out a career-best 121 batters last season. Urena tends to work to contact with his mid-90s heater but is effective at keeping in the ball in the yard. Still, he's unlikely to find much growth in his strikeout potential until a more effective secondary offering is established. Urena will likely take his superb command to Triple-A in 2015, but will be hard pressed to find opportunity in the majors this season with the Marlins possessing talented rotation options both in the big leagues and in the high minors.
Avery Romero - Romero split time between Low-A and High-A in 2014, and continued to flash an enticing offensive skill set. He slashed .320/.367/.423 in 118 total games, with 63 runs scored, five home runs, 31 doubles and 56 RBI. Romero continues to provide an elite 87 percent contact rate and showed progress as he transitioned from shortstop to second base in 2014. He has proven ready to face stiffer competition and is likely to see time at Double-A during the 2015 season.
