This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Props for Wednesday, May 15
We have a split slate Wednesday, and I'm focusing on a hitter prop apiece from the afternoon, early evening and final game of the night for my trio of wagers as I try to build on last Wednesday's 2-1 showing.
2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-5 (-2.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 8-8 (-1.33 RW Bucks)
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Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox Best Bets
Tommy Pham has been a bright spot for the struggling White Sox, producing a .306/.348/.452 slash line across his first 66 plate appearances of the season. The veteran has often worked out of the leadoff spot, sometimes giving him that extra plate appearance per game that adds a bit of extra appeal to his prop bets.
Pham is in a particularly advantageous position Wednesday to continue his strong start, as the Nationals' Patrick Corbin will be on the hill. Corbin is a great matchup under any scenario – he's sporting a .323 xBA and .490 xSLG while allowing a career-high 48.3 percent hard-hit rate – but he's even more enticing when considering Pham specifically.
The slugging outfielder has been a terror against the veteran southpaw most of his career, mustering a .412 average and 1.147 OPS while striking out just twice in 22 plate appearances. The sample includes a double, a home run and 11 total bases overall.
Corbin is also surrendering a .389 average and .445 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, while Pham has been struggling early over a very small sample against lefties, but owns a .269 average, .832 OPS, .359 wOBA and 128 wRC+ in that split over his career.
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MLB Picks for Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox
- Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Oakland Athletics vs, Houston Astros Best Bets
The Athletics will trot out graybeard Aaron Brooks for Wednesday's start, which brightens the prospects of the Astros' offense overall. Brooks last pitched in the majors in 2022 for the Cardinals, posting a 7.71 ERA, 2.9 HR/9 and 1.39 WHIP over 9.1 innings.
Brooks has also given up 52 hits over 43.1 innings for Triple-A Las Vegas thus far this season, complementing those numbers with a 1.44 WHIP and unsightly 1-6 record. Brooks was lit up for seven earned runs on two different occasions with the Aviators, so even against an underachieving group of Houston bats, his prospects aren't bright.
Jeremy Pena has been one of the few hitters in the Astros' lineup who hasn't disappointed, posting a .329 average and .825 OPS across 172 plate appearances. Pena went into Tuesday's action with a .364 average and .415 wOBA versus right-handed pitching at home as well, while Brooks has conceded a .310 BAA, .383 wOBA and 5.77 xFIP to righty bats on the road during his career.
With Pena displaying such impressive bat skills this season, Brooks a vulnerable starter, and the Astros carrying a robust 5.3-run projected total as of late morning, I'm in the camp of this prop.
MLB Picks for Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
- Jeremy Pena Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bets
I'll go from picking on a particularly vulnerable starter to targeting a much more talented one who's nevertheless hardly been able to figure out several of the hitters he'll face in a fearsome Dodgers lineup Wednesday.
Logan Webb is off to another solid start this season that includes a trademark hard-luck 3-4 mark accompanied by a 3.38 ERA. However, Webb is pitching to a bit more contact than usual – he's given up 60 hits in 53.1 innings and has a 1.39 WHIP – and he's already been lit up by the Dodgers for five earned runs on seven hits and two walks over 3.2 innings back in his second start of the season.
That result is unsurprising for Webb, who's repeatedly been bedeviled by several current Dodgers bats. One of his biggest tormentors has been Mookie Betts, who owns a .424 average and 1.108 OPS across 34 career plate appearances against Webb, a sample in which he's also only struck out twice.
Los Angeles has a projected total of 4.4 runs as of late morning that's risen from an open of 4.1, certainly a positive sign in terms of Betts' chances of crossing the plate at least once. It also bears mentioning Webb has allowed a .272 average to right-handed hitters overall, while Betts has a .330 average and has scored 27 of his 37 runs while facing righties.
MLB Picks for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
- Mookie Betts Over 0.5 runs scored (-130 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Jeremy Pena Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Mookie Betts Over 0.5 runs scored (-130 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
