This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
Welcome to another installment of The Wheelhouse. As noted upon launch a few weeks back, this piece is a work in progress, but eventually, I am hoping to have something similar posted every day throughout the baseball season. Until then, there will be periodic changes, and the schedule will likely stick to Tuesday and Friday postings.
Today's slate is slightly different than a typical Tuesday. There are 13 games on the main schedule, with two -- ATL/TOR and TB/CLE -- that begin before lineup lock thanks to late afternoon and early evening start times.
Fortunately, the removal of Marco Estrada, Jaime Garcia, Danny Salazar, and Jake Odorizzi doesn't have an overwhelming impact on the rest of the slate.
The early outlook from a weather standpoint is promising, while many parks will have an increase in temperature and winds blowing out, which will change the way Wrigley Field (Reds/Cubs), Kaufmann Stadium (Yankees/Royals) and AT&T Park (Dodgers/Giants) are handled.
Currently, the over/under for the Reds/Cubs matchup is 12(!), which is a number we rarely see outside of Coors Field. There are 9.5 o/u numbers for the Orioles/Tigers, Rockies/Twins, and Yankees/Royals matchups as well.
Keep an eye on the Target Field weather as lineup lock approaches, as rain is now popping up in the forecast.
The Arms
From a skills and matchup standpoint, Rich Hill's return from the disabled list Tuesday night is interesting. While he was able to complete five no-hit innings in his final rehab start at High-A on May 10, Hill's ability to pitch deeper into a game remains in doubt. The Dodgers need to walk a fine line with his workload, as pushing him too far could lead to a return of the blister woes he's been battling for the past 10 months.
Dallas Keuchel is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings, but it's justified by his resurgent performance this season. The Astros' win probability is high Tuesday with Tom Koehler on the mound for Miami, the park suppresses runs, and the over/under is 7.5 runs, tying White Sox/Angels, Brewers/Padres, and Dodgers/Giants for the lowest mark on the board.
At least in cash games, Keuchel is my preferred top-end arm ahead of Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, and Zack Greinke.
Strasburg is a close second to Keuchel thanks to a matchup against the Pirates, whose .289 team wOBA against right-handed pitching ranks 28th in MLB (only the White Sox and Giants have been worse).
Darvish's matchup against the Phillies is slightly more difficult than it would seem at first glance (.326 wOBA against righties), but their increased offensive productivity this season has been accompanied by the seventh-highest K% against righties (22.9%).
Greinke's success in 2017 can be attributed to his own return to health, and he's been providing more strikeouts than expected (58:9 K:BB in 51.2 innings) through the first quarter of the season.
Looking beyond the top-four arms...
The hitter-friendly winds expected at Wrigley Field make John Lackey untouchable, even as a contrarian call in tournaments.
Eduardo Rodriguez is tempting against the Cardinals, but if you're going to use a road starter in that price range, Jimmy Nelson against the Padres at Petco seems slightly safer as the San Diego offense continues to strike out at a high clip (25.5%, second in MLB).
The cheapest arm I would consider for a two-pitcher scenario, and maybe as an off-the-wall low $ entry big-field GPP is JC Ramirez. Ramirez is home against the White Sox, and the matchup against Derek Holland isn't bad for a righty-heavy Halos lineups. From the 26 starters on the Main Slate for Tuesday night, Ramirez's K-BB% ranks 11th (12.3%).
The Bats
D-backs Against Tommy Milone
Only Bronson Arroyo has posted a higher home-run rate than Milone since the start of last season. The D-backs have plenty of right-handed thump in the lineup, and Paul Goldschmidt against any lefty at home is a key building block, but Goldschmidt against Milone might be the most chalky option across all bats for Tuesday night. Yasmany Tomas smashes lefties, and both Brandon Drury and Chris Owings should be in play as part of a stack, or as one-offs to fill in lineups.
Cubs Against Bronson Arroyo
If you want to fade Goldschmidt on FanDuel, Anthony Rizzo is only $3,900. Other than Rizzo and Bryant, the Cubs are dangerously cheap up and down the lineup. Addison Russell and Willson Contreras (or Miguel Montero if he starts instead) are discounted on DraftKings for those seeking Arroyo exposure in a one-off or mini-stack.
Astros Against Tom Koehler
The Astros are built for the long ball, and while Marlins Park is a wet blanket for offense, Koehler's struggles are extensive enough to work in pieces from the Houston lineup. The price on Josh Reddick is finally high enough to keep him from serving as an automatic cheap outfield piece against a subpar righty starter, but Yulieski Gurriel, Alex Bregman, Carlos Beltran, and Brian McCann are values on FanDuel, while the key cogs -- Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer are perfectly fine building blocks.
Positional Targets
Catcher: In addition to Contreras, Jonathan Lucroy and James McCann check in below $3,000 on FanDuel tonight. Lucroy seems to be working out of his April swoon, and McCann's ability to provide pop against lefties bodes well for his matchup against Wade Miley, who has been surprisingly effective at keeping the ball in the yard to this point.
First Base: Goldschmidt will be chalky, and Rizzo should also be heavily owned. Another expensive option to consider is Joey Votto against John Lackey. On the cheap side, Kennys Vargas -- rain permitting -- against Kyle Freeland in Target Field is a viable GPP option.
Second Base: I like Ian Kinsler on both sites against Wade Miley, with a slight preference toward using him on DraftKings. Rougned Odor is priced very fairly against Jerad Eickhoff and the Phillies on FanDuel at $2,800.
Third Base: Manny Machado is a bargain on FanDuel at $3,700 against Matt Boyd. The hot corner is a little bit thinner than usual tonight. Andrew Triggs induces a lot of groundballs, but Kyle Seager offers the most value at the position on DraftKings ($3,700) with a home matchup against the righty at Safeco Field.
Shortstop: If I'm not in a position to pay up for Trea Turner against Chad Kuhl, Chris Owings is my preferred play here against Tommy Milone.
Outfield: Add J.D. Martinez to the list of Tigers to consider against Miley. Lorenzo Cain against CC Sabathia is more appealing than usual with the winds in KC blowing out. Yasmany Tomas is chalky, but worth it given his track record against southpaws and the high-scoring potential of the Mets-D-backs matchup.
