This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks and MLB Bets and Expert Picks, April 18
The Current MLB Landscape
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MLB teams have played about 19 games to date and although it is still very early in the season all five teams in the AL East have winning records. This follows the trend set last season when four of those five teams posted winning records and three of those teams (Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays) made it to the playoffs.
The Orioles have the best current win streak at four games in the AL and trail the New York Yankees, who have the best record in the AL by a half game. The Minnesota Twins have the worst losing streak at four games and are just 3-7 over their last 10 games. The Chicago White Sox did win their third game Wednesday and have posted a horrific 3-15 record on the season.
In the NL East, four of the five teams are on at least one-game win streaks and only the lowly 4-15 Miami Marlins are not playing solid baseball. The Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets are on respective league-leading four-game win streaks. The Phillies have won three straight games and seven of their last 10, with their offense beginning to come alive.
The Colorado Rockies lost their third consecutive game to the Phillies Wednesday. They scored a run in the top of the first inning marking only the second game this season that they did score first. The Mets have been the comeback kids so far in 2024 having scored first in just three games, but have earned a 7-6 record when the opponent has scored first.
The Cleveland Guardians lead MLB having posted 32 multi-run innings despite hitting just 18 home runs this season (ranked 15th). The Guardians' offense may not average six or more runs per game, but they are hitting to the opposite field, moving runners into scoring position, and not leaving a significant runner on base in scoring position. This type of baseball is winning baseball, and the Guardians eventually will take over control of the AL Central.
Will the Chicago White Sox Win a Series?
The CWS are a historically poor baseball team, having led in a league-worst 22 of the 182 innings they have played this season. They have posted league worst with nine multi-run innings, nine home runs and are a team to avoid betting on moving forward. There will be opportunities to bet against the CWS either as the market overvalues any team playing them.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Best Bets
The Thursday card is quite small, with most of the teams having the day off ahead of the weekend series. This matchup of NL West foes will start at 9:45 ET and is the first game of a four-game series with the market pricing the Giants as -160 favorites on the moneyline and a posted total of 8 runs.
For the season the Diamondbacks are off to a 9-10 start averaging a -104 wager and a losing-money -11 percent ROI. They have done quite well, though, with a 10-4-5 F5 record and a solid 13-6 record when they or their opponent scores in the first inning. The biggest problem for the Diamondbacks is their bullpen, which is allowing an average of three runs per game ranking 24th in MLB. The Diamondbacks bullpen has posted a 2-6 record, including only three saves and five blown saves. So, that unit needs to improve quickly for the Diamondbacks to contend for the playoffs.
The Giants Results Having Posted a Multi-Run Inning
The Giants are 8-11 averaging a -104 wager and a losing-money -23 percent ROI for the season. They have been slow starters as evidenced by their anemic 5-13-1 F5 record. They rank 20th in MLB with 18 multi-run innings, but they have attained a 76-36 (68 percent) record averaging a -108 wager and earning a 27 percent ROI when posting at least one multi-run inning in games played over the past two seasons and an impressive 39-10 (80 percent) record when these games have been played at home.
Who is Starting for the Diamondbacks?
The Diamondbacks will have right-hander Ryne Nelson on the hill, who was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the second round of the 2019 June Amateur Draft and made his MLB debut on Sept. 5, 2022. He averages 95 MPH with his fastball, 91 MPH with a cutter, 83 MPH with the slider, 85 MPH with the changeup and 76 MPH with the curve. However, he rarely throws the curveball and relies mostly on his fastball and cutter, which account for 75 percent of his offerings. His fastball is flat and gives batters a great opportunity to get the barrel on the ball and drive it into the gaps. He is allowing a poor 91 MPH exit velocity and a 44 percent hard-hit percentage this season.
The Giants Patrick Bailey and Matt Chapman are pounding the ball, averaging better than 93 MPH exit velocities. Chapman, LaMonte Wade and Michael Conforto have posted 50 percent or better hard-hit rates. The probability is high that the Giants will have at least one multi-run inning leading them to the victory tonight.
What are My Predictive Models Projecting?
From the predictive models, the Giants have an 85 percent probability of posting at least one multi-run inning and that their starter Logan Webb will complete more than five innings. The Giants are 44-10 (82 percent) averaging a -145 wager and earning a highly profitable 44 percent ROI in home games where their starter pitched more than five innings and the offense posted at least one multi-run inning in games played over the past three seasons.
Bet the San Francisco Giants using the moneyline priced as -165 favorites at DraftKings.
