The 26th Arizona Fall League kicked off Oct. 10. Known to many as a "finishing school", the AFL plays host to a variety of different prospects – some on the brink of the majors, some who've already made it, and some who might be on their last shot. The ages vary, the oldest being 27-year-old Marlins shortstop Peter Mooney and the youngest being 18-year-old flame-throwing Padres pitcher Andres Munoz. From a talent perspective, the AFL is like a daily minor-league All-Star game.
I'm lucky enough to live in Arizona, and be within driving distance of each of the six ballparks that host AFL teams. I've been able to take in each team at least twice through the early part of the AFL season, and some up to seven times (I'm looking at you Peoria and Ronald Acuna!). In this look at the first couple of weeks of the AFL, I'm going to highlight some of the game's top prospects and touch on those who have really altered their prospect stock.
Hitters
Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves
There isn't a bigger name than Acuna here in the AFL. On Opening Day, hundreds of people lined up at Peoria's gates, all to get a glimpse, an autograph or a first look at Acuna. This crush hasn't slowed down since that first game. Acuna was 2-for-4 in his first game, and was called out on a stolen-base attempt that he was very safe on (I was on the first-base line to
The 26th Arizona Fall League kicked off Oct. 10. Known to many as a "finishing school", the AFL plays host to a variety of different prospects – some on the brink of the majors, some who've already made it, and some who might be on their last shot. The ages vary, the oldest being 27-year-old Marlins shortstop Peter Mooney and the youngest being 18-year-old flame-throwing Padres pitcher Andres Munoz. From a talent perspective, the AFL is like a daily minor-league All-Star game.
I'm lucky enough to live in Arizona, and be within driving distance of each of the six ballparks that host AFL teams. I've been able to take in each team at least twice through the early part of the AFL season, and some up to seven times (I'm looking at you Peoria and Ronald Acuna!). In this look at the first couple of weeks of the AFL, I'm going to highlight some of the game's top prospects and touch on those who have really altered their prospect stock.
Hitters
Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves
There isn't a bigger name than Acuna here in the AFL. On Opening Day, hundreds of people lined up at Peoria's gates, all to get a glimpse, an autograph or a first look at Acuna. This crush hasn't slowed down since that first game. Acuna was 2-for-4 in his first game, and was called out on a stolen-base attempt that he was very safe on (I was on the first-base line to see it). Acuna's bat speed is arguably unmatched here in the AFL. One afternoon I took in a BP session, and you can see it for yourself.
#ProspectOne scouting Ronald Acuna BP this morning @MLBazFallLeaguepic.twitter.com/9eNI5IkArb
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 16, 2017
While his bat speed is special, he can still get a little too aggressive at times. Javier Guerra of the Padres hit a home run in front of him in one game and he proceeded to take some of the biggest hacks on some unhittable breaking balls, leading to a strikeout. He hasn't hit a home run yet, but he's hit the ball to all fields, displayed his speed on the bases with a steal and covered more ground in center and right field than any other outfielder I've seen. Acuna will be a star, and he knows it. He points to the sky before every at-bat and blows baseball-sized bubbles of gum in the on-deck circle. It's hard not to fall in love with this guy. He is refining his skills before an early-season callup in 2018.
#ProspectOne Stop me if you've heard this before @BravesRonald Acuna hit! 🔥double to left to bring in a run @InThisLeaguePodpic.twitter.com/W6lPDXW7P8
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 19, 2017
Estevan Florial, OF, Yankees
In 2017 the Yankees sent one of their top prospects in 19-year-old Gleyber Torres to the AFL, who proceeded to win league MVP. This year it's another 19-year-old Yankee who's vying for MVP consideration. Florial was a man on a mission in the most recent game of his that I saw. He went 3-for-5, falling a home run shy of hitting for the cycle. When Florial finds his pitch, he shows off some impressive bat speed, which is followed by him flying around the basepaths. As of writing this, he's hitting .407 in 27 AFL at-bats. Like with many younger hitters, pitch recognition can be an issue for him. He has the second most strikeouts in the league (11) and zero walks. Florial has the electric actions to be a spark plug for an offense. He has a lot of energy, plays his part on defense, and should be able to profile anywhere in a lineup. He might be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this finishing school. Given his five-category potential, he should be rostered in even the shallowest of dynasty leagues.
#ProspectOne now @YankeesEstevan Florial is a HR shy of the cycle after this Triple. 3-4 on the day! @InThisLeaguePodpic.twitter.com/siflpWVHq7
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 19, 2017
Michael Chavis, 1B/3B. Red Sox
Before the AFL started, I stated on my show Prospect One that Chavis would be this year's Cody Bellinger. Now I am not comparing skill sets, of course, but what I meant was he'd be the biggest post-AFL riser. Chavis is coming off an incredible year which saw his power spike to 31 home runs in 471 at-bats. He has a good uppercut to his swing, so there is no mistaking his intentions in the batter's box. Chavis is tied for the league lead with four doubles and he has hit one home run in 39 at-bats. He's got quick hands to come inside the ball, so he isn't a major strikeout liability. He's currently blocked at third in Boston by Rafael Devers, so he's split time here between third base, first base and DH. Chavis was a little shorter than I thought in person, but he is strong, and has a Mike Napoli build to him. He's hit in the middle of the order in almost every game I've seen, and his job in the big leagues will be to drive in runs, although that may end up being for a team other than the Red Sox if they deem him expendable in a trade. I think Chavis will be one of the better big-league hitters from this AFL class.
#ProspectOne scouting. Morning BP with @RedSox@MichaelChavis11@inyhwangpic.twitter.com/FUPOPck0Bw
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 16, 2017
Josh Naylor, 1B, Padres
Naylor is one of the tougher prospects to get a handle on. From a body perspective, there is a lot to be concerned about. He looks like a slightly taller version of Prince Fielder, but he is far more athletic than you'd expect. He has a knack for putting the ball where he wants it, be it opposite field, up the middle or pull side. Early in the count he is swinging for the fences, and I saw him crush one to right field during one game. When he gets late in the count he really chokes up on the bat, which you can really see since he doesn't wear batting gloves. The other interesting thing is whenever he gets on, he seems to be looking to steal. In the first Peoria game I went to, he caught everyone off guard by successfully stealing in his first attempt (they didn't even bother throwing to second). He was successful on another attempt a few games later, but then got caught leaning too much as word got out about his aggressiveness on the bases. The problem I have with Naylor for fantasy purposes moving forward is I don't know if he'll hit for enough power at first base. I immediately think of James Loney. This seems to be more of an approach thing than a knock on his ability, because Naylor has more raw power than Loney. I wouldn't write off the possibility of him getting to more game power, because if there is one thing he can do, it's hit. I view him as a fringe top-100 prospect.
#ProspectOne scouting all @JoshNaylor44 does is hit. Up against @Dbacks Ryan Atkinson pic.twitter.com/ZlJ7UajTtz
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 16, 2017
Francisco Mejia, 3B/C, Indians
Mejia is the toughest of all the prospects at the AFL to wrap my head around. The size comp is Jose Altuve. They say Mejia stands 5-foot-10, and I'd say that's a stretch. He seemed closer to 5-foot-8. Unlike Luis Urias, who is a similar height, Mejia doesn't pack the weight that Urias does. He also doesn't seem to have a set position anymore. He was subpar in the game I saw him at third base. He's been a bullpen catcher, but has not been behind the dish in a game. Outside of that he's been the designated hitter, and had some morning workouts at second base. A home at second would make some sense in the future, but I wonder if he'll simply be a future super-utility player. Mejia has shown off the tool that's made him famous, and that's his ability to hit. He's currently hitting over .400, but all 11 hits are singles. Mejia may be a doubles machine at the next level. I wouldn't say it's out of the question for low double-digit home run power, but I'd leave it at that. There is a lot to love from a real baseball perspective, but I've tempered my feelings as far as fantasy goes, and dropped him outside of my top 50.
#ProspectOne scouting. Mejia vs Fried part 2. Mejia wins with a single lined into center @MLBazFallLeaguepic.twitter.com/cxjpU2tlM2
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 10, 2017
Hitter Notes: Cubs 2B David Bote has been destroying AFL pitching. Going into the third week he's the leader in home runs, hits, runs, total bases, OBP and SLG, while coming in second in AVG. Mariners Eric Filia has impressed by hitting over .500. He's played RF and 1B, but stands out with his Xavier Nady-like batting stance. One thing stood out to me during BP of the opening night AFL game, and that's A's prospect Sheldon Neuse's power. Even his teammates were laughing at his BP power. He followed it up the next day with a grand slam. He is one to watch. The Braves' Alex Jackson has three home runs, and been one of the team leaders for Peoria. He's caught many Braves pitchers as well, showing how serious the Braves are about developing him as a catcher. Luis Urias has displayed his plus hit tool by hitting over .350 and walking more than he's struck out. Blue Jays Lourdes Gurriel has been one of the biggest surprises for me, showing off power, speed and quick hands. He's played shortstop and second base so far. The Nationals decided to not send Victor Robles out to the AFL, so they sent Daniel Johnson instead. Johnson has picked up right where his season left off, leading the league in stolen bases and being one of the better hitters on the Mesa team. Monte Harrison got off to a slow start, but hit two home runs (one being a grand slam) and had seven RBI in one game, equaling his total prior to that game. Kyle Tucker has gotten off to an even slower start, standing near the top of the league in strikeouts. The Brewers' Corey Ray has had the worst go so far, hitting .069 and going more than 20 at-bats between hits. He seems lost.
Pitchers
Max Fried, LHP, Braves
At @MLBazFallLeague#ProspectOne@Indians Mejia vs @BravesMax Fried. SKO!! pic.twitter.com/Dt8BgkuQ2I
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 10, 2017
One of my favorite feelings when I'm at a baseball game is sitting front row and experiencing that knee-buckling feeling of a great curveball. Fried provided this my very first day at the AFL. He has frustrated hitters through two starts, striking out 11 over eight innings pitched. His fastball has been a plus pitch, but he's used it to set up what looks like a plus big-league curveball. We know his stuff is good, but the command was the key for me, and it has been some of the best out here so far, as he's only issued two walks. Peoria is loaded with Braves prospects. One thing they have been doing is stacking Braves pitchers together, but Fried is always the starter. I've heard chatter of a relief role possibly in the future, but I am encouraged that he is working with what could be his future big-league catcher in Alex Jackson. Fried seems primed for a rotation spot with the big-league club at some point in 2018.
Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates
If you ever get a chance to go to an AFL game, one of the fun elements of it is watching pitchers in the stands tracking pitches or running the radar guns. I caught Keller tracking pitches a few days prior to his second start, and the way he is approaching the fall league reminds of a 2016 AFL alum, Michael Kopech. Keller takes time every game for autograph seekers, he's very easy to talk to, and he treats his days for tracking pitches like he does for actual pitching. I wasn't overwhelmed with Keller's stuff. Don't get me wrong, it's near the top of the league, but what stands out is his command. He didn't seem to have his best stuff in his second start, and I think he knew it as he walked around the mound. He stayed composed though, and fought through it. Don't be surprised when Keller has the best major-league career of this AFL bunch. He is a borderline top-10 pitching prospect for fantasy purposes.
#ProspectOne scouting @PiratesMitch Keller punches out @Angels Matt Thiass @MLBazFallLeaguepic.twitter.com/UcyUi1lj0D
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 17, 2017
Justus Sheffield, LHP, Yankees
#ProspectOne scouting @Yankees@Topsheff42 did @astrosKyle Tucker dirty on the SKO. @MLBazFallLeague@InThisLeaguePodpic.twitter.com/aRXTPWlEt3
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 11, 2017
Sheffield pitched Opening Night at Scottsdale Stadium in front of a big crowd for an AFL game, and he was phenomenal. This performance, which saw him go five innings of one-hit ball, was the best performance I've seen in an AFL game over the last two years. Sheffield sat around 94 mph, topping out at 96 mph. He seemed to be working on his changeup, which looks good, but his curve was giving everyone fits. Keith Law commented online that this was the best he had ever seen Sheffield pitch. His second performance didn't live up to the hype, and inconsistency has been an issue for him so far as a pro. He has elite stuff when he's on, but can be hittable. I walked away feeling more confident about the Yankees giving him the full opportunity to work as a starter. I would still take Chance Adams over Sheffield, but the gap is closer.
Pitcher Notes: The Braves' Touki Toussaint has displayed great command of his plus fastball and curve. He was unhittable until his third outing, when he gave up back-to-back home runs. The youngest AFL player is Padres pitcher Andres Munoz, who was hitting 100 mph with his fastball and sitting at 98 mph. He also buckled batters with an 83 mph breaking ball. Blue Jays righty T.J. Zeuch was the starter for the almost no-hitter Oct. 14. He is a big presence on the mound, with a good downward plane on the fastball. I think Zeuch could be primed for a big 2018. The Yankees' Albert Abreu has been one of my favorites to watch. He dueled with Keller and was the better pitcher that day. He easily repeats his delivery, and shows a plus offspeed offering. The best name no one is talking about is Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay. He reminded me a lot of Sheffield. He hasn't given up a hit through three games. Red Sox southpaw Henry Owens is out here pitching even though he is no longer a prospect. He is now throwing with more of a sidearm delivery. He's topping out at 89-90 mph, and having a pretty rough go of it. His command is way off as he's walked seven through five innings.
Follow me on Twitter to find all my videos from the AFL. You can also listen to my prospect podcast, Prospect One on iTunes or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
