Playing time is key in fantasy, but sometimes there's an edge to drafting a player who lacks guaranteed time now. Typically, we're looking at players who possess the skills to claim a job soon, but don't yet have a clear enough role to shoot up draft boards. These players will gain steam quickly in the draft or on the waiver wire once they earn their chance.
These five skilled starting pitchers expect to battle for a rotation spot right now, but there's a good chance they find themselves in the bullpen or the minors when Opening Day arrives. However, their underlying metrics and skills make them good targets, since they'll have plenty of fantasy value once they get their chance.
Hayden Wesneski, Cubs
Wesneski recorded a 2.18 ERA in a small sample of 33 innings, but his .244 BABIP and 83.9 percent strand rate scream regression. He boasted an above-average strikeout rate (25.0 percent) but a league-average swinging-strike rate (11.7 percent). But there's plenty to be encouraged by as well. Per Stathead, Wesneski ranked 19th in K-BB rate (19.7 percent) amongst rookie starting pitchers with at least 30 innings and 25 years or younger since 2015, as seen in the table below. Many pitchers on this list flashed ace-like upside or performed as high-end starting pitchers over a significant chunk of innings.
Wesneski used four pitches at a double-digit rate, including a slider (31.9 percent), four-seamer (25.9 percent), sinker (22.4 percent) and cutter (12.1 percent). His cut fastball elicits
Playing time is key in fantasy, but sometimes there's an edge to drafting a player who lacks guaranteed time now. Typically, we're looking at players who possess the skills to claim a job soon, but don't yet have a clear enough role to shoot up draft boards. These players will gain steam quickly in the draft or on the waiver wire once they earn their chance.
These five skilled starting pitchers expect to battle for a rotation spot right now, but there's a good chance they find themselves in the bullpen or the minors when Opening Day arrives. However, their underlying metrics and skills make them good targets, since they'll have plenty of fantasy value once they get their chance.
Hayden Wesneski, Cubs
Wesneski recorded a 2.18 ERA in a small sample of 33 innings, but his .244 BABIP and 83.9 percent strand rate scream regression. He boasted an above-average strikeout rate (25.0 percent) but a league-average swinging-strike rate (11.7 percent). But there's plenty to be encouraged by as well. Per Stathead, Wesneski ranked 19th in K-BB rate (19.7 percent) amongst rookie starting pitchers with at least 30 innings and 25 years or younger since 2015, as seen in the table below. Many pitchers on this list flashed ace-like upside or performed as high-end starting pitchers over a significant chunk of innings.
Wesneski used four pitches at a double-digit rate, including a slider (31.9 percent), four-seamer (25.9 percent), sinker (22.4 percent) and cutter (12.1 percent). His cut fastball elicits the most whiffs, with a 15.6 percent swinging-strike rate, and his slider is close behind at 14.6 percent. That slider, which he typically located down and away toward right-handed hitters, boasts 7.1 more inches of horizontal break than average. Meanwhile, the cutter is an offering he uses more to lefties (24 percent), allowing zero hits in a small sample of 41 pitches. Wesneski's sinker induces a high groundball rate (69 percent), limiting home runs.
With the addition of Jameson Taillon and the eventual return of Kyle Hendricks (shoulder), Wesneski might not have a spot in the rotation. Expect regression in his ratios, though he possesses two pitches with quality swinging-strike rates. His early ADP (around pick 330 on NFBC) is fair, and it's rising. One could make a case for tempering expectations, but I'm leaning on the more optimistic end.
Braxton Garrett, Marlins
Garrett could be one of the next Marlins starting pitchers with breakout potential after showing better ratios and a K-BB rate of 17.7 percent last season. He dealt with a shoulder injury in May, and an oblique issue in August nearly ended his season. Health aside, Garrett's slider improved to a 20.7 percent swinging-strike rate, up over four percentage points from 2021.
He also increased his slider usage by over nine points, and its movement profile evolved. Its velocity increased by more than one mile per hour, which seems insignificant, but he also added a few more inches of break. There's a chance he doesn't start the year in the rotation, but he deserves a spot when the opportunity arises. Take the early discount on Garrett and reap the rewards in deep leagues, assuming injuries don't hamper his season again.
Luis Ortiz, Pirates
When a player's major-league sample is small, it sometimes presents a buying opportunity. Luis Ortiz made four big-league starts last season, one of which lasted only 0.2 innings and resulted in six earned runs, three walks and zero strikeouts. Ortiz limited the balls in play with a .171 BABIP and struggled to strand runners (54.2 percent), so expect some regression on both ends.
In the minors over the past two seasons, Ortiz posted a 28.3 percent strikeout rate and a 7.4 percent walk rate. The fastball and slider combination looked electric, with elite velocity on the four-seamer at over 98 mph and a slider with the fifth-best swinging-strike rate. From a movement standpoint, it would be ideal for Ortiz's four-seamer to move vertically more than horizontally. The visual below shows the four-seamer location by zone for Ortiz.
Ortiz located the pitch at the bottom of the zone 44 percent of the time last season. The four-seamer has over 14 inches of arm-side run and almost acts like a sinker that touches 99+ mph. Keep an eye on the called strike rate on the four-seamer, which came in at 23.8 percent, the 12th-highest amongst four-seamers. That could indicate Ortiz has quality command of the fastball, as that mark ranks him near Clayton Kershaw, Kyle Hendricks and Zac Gallen, albeit in a small sample for Ortiz.
There's a chance that Ortiz's ADP past pick 400 makes him a value. However, there's another scenario where the four-seamer location and called strikes regress, leading to further problems and making it a bumpy road.
Johan Oviedo, SP, PIT
Oviedo came over from the Cardinals, where he threw 25.1 innings (one start and 13 relief appearances), recording a 17.6 percent K-BB rate. He received the chance to start with the Pirates, with three of his seven outings going for five or more innings. Unsurprisingly, his strikeout rate fell to 22.3 percent as a starter, paired with an increase in walk rate at 9.5 percent, leading to a worse K-BB rate.
The fastball and slider accounted for over 87 percent of his total arsenal when he was primarily a reliever with the Cardinals. Oviedo used a similar pitch mix as a starter, with the slider dropping six points in favor of his changeup. The visual below shows the pitch mix change, particularly in September when he shifted to a starter for the Pirates.
From a swinging-strike perspective, Oviedo's slider and changeup resulted in the most whiffs, with the slider at 18.1 percent and changeup at 11.1 percent. However, he rarely used the latter pitch, only 5.5 percent of the time between the two stops, so it might not be a reliable offering.
Oviedo's slider proved effective against right-handed and left-handed hitters. Righties crushed the four-seamer to the tune of a .489 SLG and .380 wOBA, though the pitch performed well in 2021 versus that same group (.259 SLG and .299 wOBA). Oviedo lowered his four-seamer usage to right-handers by over 15 percentage points, a sign that he's attempting to make adjustments.
Oviedo is worth selecting in draft-and-hold or NL-only formats, and belongs on the watch list in mixed leagues. It's probable that Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez suffer injuries or struggle, allowing an opportunity for Ortiz and Oviedo to crack the Pirates rotation. Don't sleep on the young Pirates pair, even if the pessimistic view of Pittsburgh's player development lingers in our minds.
Bailey Ober, SP, MIN
After the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez via trade, reports indicated Ober could start the year in Triple-A. Could the Twins use a six-man rotation? It's possible, as Kenta Maeda missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery while Tyler Mahle dealt with a shoulder injury to close the 2022 season. We've seen injury optimism with Mahle's shoulder, and Ober dealt with a groin injury of his own that impacted his availability last season.
Ober is intriguing from a skills standpoint, though his 11-start sample last season isn't large. As a flyball pitcher, Ober's home run rate fell from 1.95 HR/9 to 0.64, which could indicate some regression to a number closer to 1.00 HR/9 going forward as seen in the graph above. The swinging-strike rate on his slider improved to 18.8 percent, with the changeup following suit at 16.5 percent. Both pitches improved by five or six points from their respective 2021 marks.
Against left-handed hitters, Ober used his changeup 27.8 percent of the time versus just 4.8 percent against righties. Unfortunately, lefties crushed the pitch, recording a .462 SLG and .383 wOBA last season and similarly poor results in 2021. Against righties, Ober relies on his four-seamer and slider a combined 87.5 percent of the time, yielding effective results.
Since reports of Ober potentially opening the year in Triple-A emerged in mid-January, Ober's ADP has slipped from near pick 300 to around 350. Ober possesses the strikeout and control skills to provide a steady floor with upside for more, regardless of where he pitches in April. Ober enters the season with sleeper appeal, as he has in the past, and we should buy the slight ADP dip despite the early-season concerns about his rotation spot.
