Farm Futures: Top 20 Draft Prospects

First off, I want to apologize to all the loyal subscribers for the lack of updates to the top 400 prospect rankings over the past couple weeks. It's been a major source of anxiety for me, as I take a great deal of pride in delivering the best, most up-to-date fantasy prospect rankings in the industry. Instead of trying to half-ass it, I've opted to focus exclusively on preparing our draft content for Monday and Tuesday (we will have real-time player notes through the first four rounds). I don't have time to focus on amateur prospects year round, so when the draft comes, I need to hunker down and do my homework, and unfortunately that comes at the expense of the top 400.

I promise that after the draft is complete, all my time and energy will go toward a full top 400 update that should be ready to go live by the second week of June. Thank you for your patience in this regard. Quality is the No. 1 thing I strive for, and sometimes that means you won't get everything you want, when you want it.

Here is a preview of what I've been working on -- the top 20 fantasy prospects from this year's draft class. As always, these rankings will change a bit after the draft, but this should serve as a useful snapshot of the players you need to be most aware of heading into the draft.

1. Jonathan India, 3B/2B/SS, Florida

India's road to the first round this year has been a bit of a roller coaster, as he was seen as a third-round talent in 2015, but fell to Milwaukee in the 26th round due to well-founded signability concerns. His first two years at Florida were middling, but he made good on his pedigree as a junior, hitting .362/.502/.723 with 17 home runs, 11 steals (on 13 attempts) and a 47:47 K:BB through 188 at-bats. The big change for India has been his improved pitch recognition, which has led to more patience and better pitches to hit. When he swings, he doesn't get cheated, taking violent swings with his quick bat that should result in high exit velocities in pro ball. He's not a burner but is at least an average runner, and he could steal double-digit bases early in his career. The legitimacy of his improved hit tool will be what ultimately determines his value at the next level. If he can carry over this improved approach against pro pitchers, we could be looking at a five-category force, capable of playing third base, second base, and maybe even some shortstop. Essentially, if his junior season is legitimate, he is the best fantasy hitter in this class.

2. Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

There have been debates about who should go No. 1 overall in recent drafts, which has led teams picking at the top to cut under-slot deals with their first pick in order to load up on talent later on. However, Mize is the clear cream of the crop in 2018 (from a real-life perspective), so the Tigers shouldn't mess around. He pounds the strike zone with a deep, power arsenal, headlined by an upper-80s splitter that evaluators grade as a plus-plus pitch. His 93-97 mph fastball, 88-91 mph cutter and mid-80s slider all have a chance to be plus pitches, giving him one of the deepest, most potent repertoires from an amateur hurler in recent memory. He missed a good chunk of time in 2017 with a flexor strain in his forearm but has stayed healthy in 2018. Physically, Mize really resembles Max Scherzer. Both are 6-foot-3 and roughly 210 pounds, with tree trunk lower halves that threaten to rip the stitching on their pants. With plus control and a bevy of 60- and 70-grade offerings, Mize comfortably projects as a No. 1 starter. He could begin his pro career at High-A or even Double-A, and will likely be one of the first players from this class to reach the majors, possibly in the first half of 2019.

3. Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS, North Broward Prep (Florida)

It is awfully hard not to get excited about Edwards from a fantasy perspective, as he is the fastest player in this class who is expected to come off the board on the first day of the draft. He is a true 80-grade runner who is unlikely to develop much over-the-fence pop due to his 5-foot-10, 155-pound frame, so the easy comparison is Dee Gordon. That said, we can't just say "he won't hit for power" when talking about guys of this ilk anymore. He is more compact than Gordon, so he could eventually produce the torque needed to yank balls out, particularly from the right side. Edwards is a good hitter from both sides of the plate, and when factoring in his speed, it's not unreasonable to think he could hit .280 or better in the big leagues. He should post good K:BB numbers, so there's a whiff of Luis Urias here too (with waaayyyy more speed). Scouts are pretty mixed on his shortstop defense, but it doesn't really matter for our purposes, as the farthest he'll slide down the defensive spectrum is to second base. It will take a sizeable bonus to pry him away from his commitment to Vanderbilt, but I expect a team in the first round to fall in love with the skill set and pay up. Edwards is so tough for me to rank in this class. It feels weird to put him ahead of the next four guys on this list, and there will likely be a lot of shuffling around in this range based on where guys end up in the draft, but I think Edwards has a relatively high floor to go with his high ceiling.

4. Jordyn Adams, OF, Green Hope HS (North Carolina)

Adams comes with some legitimate signability risk, as he is a four-star wide receiver recruit who is committed to play football and baseball at North Carolina, where his father is a defensive line coach. However, he showed this year that he is more than just a tooled-up uber-athlete -- he can also hit a little -- so he could receive a large enough bonus to convince him to turn pro. There's also risk if he signs and doesn't hit right away, as he could always run back to football. He has top-of-the-scale speed, and at 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, he should be able to remain at least a plus-plus runner while growing into plus raw power. His speed should allow him to be an impact defender in center field, which puts less pressure on his bat. As with most two-sport athletes with these kinds of tools, there are questions about his hit tool -- if there weren't he would be a candidate to go 1-1. Considering he has made strides in that department over the past calendar year, it's fair to expect him to continue to improve as a hitter, especially once he fully dedicates himself to baseball. When factoring in all the tools, there's a case that Adams has more fantasy upside than any player in this class. The easy comp is Byron Buxton, but a more recent comp that makes sense is Jo Adell.

5. Nick Madrigal, 2B, Oregon State

The shortest player (5-foot-7) likely to be taken in the first round might also be the best pure hitter in this year's class. Madrigal missed a couple months this spring with a broken wrist but returned in April, and his performance has not skipped a beat. Through 119 at-bats, the Oregon State junior is hitting .395/.459/.563 with two home runs, nine steals (on nine attempts) and a 5:12 K:BB. He will become only the fourth right-handed hitting college second baseman to come off the board in the first round since 1987, joining Rickie Weeks (No. 2 overall in 2003), Kolbrin Vitek (No. 20 overall in 2010) and Keston Hiura (No. 9 overall in 2017), per Matt Eddy of Baseball America:

The Brewers took Rickie Weeks at No. 2 in 2003, and he is the exception to all the rules. Otherwise, the only RH second basemen to be first-rounders (since 1987) are Keston Hiura (9) and Kolbren Vitek (20), both college OFs shoehorned into 2B in pro ball. https://t.co/Lsb2kWQMG5

— Matt Eddy (@MattEddyBA) May 10, 2018

This group is even more exclusive than it seems, as Vitek and Hiura were college outfielders who moved to second base as pros and Weeks had one of the rarest collection of tools of any college draft pick of the last 20 years. If we forget about the right-handed aspect of the profile, the best comparison to Madrigal might be Dustin Ackley, who was the No. 2 overall pick in 2009 -- selected almost exclusively because of how special everyone thought his hit tool was going to be. That doesn't mean Madrigal will be a bust, it just illustrates how rare it is for someone of his ilk to be drafted this highly (he is a lock to go in the top 10). Scouts are in agreement that Madrigal's hit tool is special and he has at least plus speed and good instincts on the bases, so ideally he will be a force in batting average, runs and stolen bases. He has good enough hands and lateral quickness for shortstop, but his arm will likely confine him to the keystone in pro ball. Madrigal doesn't project to be a double-digit home run threat, so his hit tool will have to be as good as advertised for him to live up to his draft slot.

6. Trevor Larnach, OF, Oregon State

Few college hitters have improved their stock this season as much as Larnach. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound corner outfielder always looked the part of a power hitter, but he hit just three home runs in 88 games as a freshman and sophomore, so it wasn't clear that the power was ever going to come. Fast forward to his junior year at Oregon State, and Larnach is hitting .324/.447/.637 with 17 home runs and a 50:40 K:BB through 204 at-bats as a junior for the Beavers. He has a pretty swing from the left side that lends itself to hitting for power to all fields. There is a chance he could develop a plus hit tool to go with plus-plus raw power, which would make him one of the best fantasy assets from this class. He won't be a threat on the bases, but could someday hit in the middle of a big-league lineup. As a likely left fielder with an advanced offensive skill set, he could be one of the first position players in this class to reach the majors.

7. Alec Bohm, 1B/3B, Wichita State

A classic "better in fantasy than reality" prospect, Bohm's offensive upside will be enough for a team picking in the top 15 to overlook his defensive shortcomings (a righty-hitting, righty-throwing third baseman who will likely end up at first base). After finishing second in the Cape Cod League last summer with a .351 average, he hit .339/.436/.625 with 16 home runs and a 28:39 K:BB in 224 at-bats in his junior year for Wichita State. The 6-foot-5, 240-pound slugger has nine steals on 12 attempts this season, but is a below-average runner, so that won't be a part of his game as a pro. His plus-plus raw power and potentially plus hit tool will have to carry him in pro ball, particularly if he ends up at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. If his bat maxes out against pro pitching, he could be the best fantasy asset from this class, but if he falls significantly short of that, he will likely float from organization to organization as a short-side platoon bat and a cautionary tale for future organizations who fall in love with R/R college sluggers with no defensive utility who beat up on mediocre competition.

8. Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama

A plus runner who could hit atop a lineup and provide sneaky pop with quality center field defense, Swaggerty has a claim as the best all-around position player in this year's draft. He is hitting .296/.455/.526 with 13 home runs, nine steals (on 14 attempts) and a 38:54 K:BB through 213 at-bats in his junior year for South Alabama. Outside of the impressive K:BB, those aren't outstanding numbers for a top college hitting prospect who supposedly has plus speed, particularly given the fact he is not playing in the SEC or ACC. However, Swaggerty's all-around game might end up proving more fruitful than some of the other top college hitters in this class. One other thing working in Swaggerty's favor is that he doesn't turn 21 until August 19, making him one of the youngest college players expected to come off the board in the first couple rounds. As is often the case, his hit tool will determine whether he is a high-end everyday player, a fourth outfielder or something in between. We've seen players with this profile flop in recent years (Adam Haseley and Mickey Moniak come to mind), but when they hit, fantasy owners can end up with an Andrew Benintendi-level asset.

9. Nolan Gorman, 3B, O'Connor HS (Arizona)

A 6-foot-1, 210-pound prep third baseman from Arizona, Gorman has the most home run upside in this class, with most evaluators throwing at least a 70-grade on his raw power from the left side. Unfortunately, the rest of his scouting report is littered with questions regarding various shortcomings. He has been stiff at third base, and given his size as an 18-year-old, it's fair to wonder if he ends up sliding down the defensive spectrum, possibly to first base or designated hitter. Offensively, strikeouts have been an issue for him, specifically against pitchers who can spin a quality breaking ball. It is much more difficult to accurately project a prep player's hit tool, given the lack of a significant sample size against quality pitching and the lack of wood-bat data. For a player like Gorman, it's possible he just doesn't hit enough in pro ball for his power to matter, but also possible that he's a better hitter than his detractors make him out to be. If Gorman maxes out, we could be looking at prime Josh Donaldson-level production during his peak years, but the floor is that he never makes it as a big leaguer.

10. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha West HS (Wisconsin)

In a draft that is fairly light on toolsy prep hitters, Kelenic stands out as the most well-rounded of the bunch, which is something that has never before been said of a player hailing from Wisconsin. While scouts haven't gotten a lot of ideal looks at Kelenic this spring, he has a multi-year track record on the showcase circuit as one of the best performers in this class. He projects as a plus hitter from the left side with above-average speed and decent pop, but as he fills out his 6-foot-1, 196-pound frame, odds are his power output will eclipse what he provides with his legs on the bases. Kelenic will likely begin his pro career in center field, but could eventually end up in a corner, where he would profile comfortably, thanks to a plus arm. The one knock on Kelenic is that he turns 19 on July 16, making him one of the older high school prospects expected to be drafted in the first few rounds.

11. Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (Florida)

Prep righties are the riskiest commodities in the draft, but Stewart's ceiling is sky high and reminiscent of that of Jay Groome (prior to his litany of blemishes). A projectable 6-foot-6, 200 pounds, Stewart's scouting report needs to start with his high-spin curveball, which is already one of the best such pitches on the planet -- it might be better than MacKenzie Gore's was in high school. He can throw the pitch for strikes or get whiffs as it drops near the hitter's feet. Stewart compliments the big breaker with a fastball that was a fringe-average offering a year ago, but now sits in the low-to-mid 90s, after a predictable, albeit significant velocity bump his senior year. As is often the case with high school hurlers who only need a fastball and breaking ball to dominate, Stewart's changeup is unrefined. However, as it is a feel pitch that he has limited experience with, it's quite possible that he develops a quality changeup in pro ball. There is a good reason why prep righties tend to slip in the draft -- the risk is off the charts -- but Stewart has the type of frontline upside worth gambling on in the first round of dynasty-league drafts.

12. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Heritage HS (Georgia)

A thick, muscular 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, Wilcox looks more like a college starter than a prep product, but while his body is maxed out, he won't turn 19 until July 14. He has a plus 92-95 mph fastball with excellent life that should generate a high percentage of groundballs, somewhat reminiscent of the fastball commanded by another pitcher who calls Georgia home, Mike Soroka. His best offspeed pitch is a plus changeup that should neutralize left-handed hitters. He pairs it with an above-average slider that lacks consistency, but can flash plus. Some evaluators are a little concerned about his unorthodox delivery, but it's not something that can't be corrected with pro instruction, and it may not need to be altered at all. Wilcox has ascended up draft boards this spring, and is expected to receive a large signing bonus to pry him away from a commitment to Georgia. With a pretty complete arsenal, Wilcox has a chance to be a quick mover relative to the other high school pitchers in this draft. He realistically profiles as a mid-rotation starter, although there is sneaky frontline upside if he maxes out.

13. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (Arizona)

The unquestioned top prep lefty in this year's class, Liberatore has the prototypical build and repertoire pro teams covet in 18-year-old southpaws. At 6-foot-5, 200 pounds, he gets good extension on his pitches and his delivery doesn't require a ton of effort. He already wows scouts with his sequencing and craft on the mound, and his projectable frame portends a velocity bump for his fastball, which currently sits in the 89-94 mph range, but touched 97 mph earlier in the spring. He has the classic 12-to-6 curveball that many famed lefties possess, and it should be a plus pitch for him in pro ball. His changeup could be a third plus pitch, with his average slider rounding out an impressive four-pitch mix. The stuff isn't quite as tantalizing as that of last year's top lefty, MacKenzie Gore, but Liberatore has clear mid-rotation upside, with a chance to exceed that if all his pitches max out.

14. Jordan Groshans, 3B, Magnolia HS (Texas)

One of the most well-rounded prep hitters in this class, Groshans doesn't have any major weaknesses, and has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order power bat. An athletic 6-foot-4, 190 pounds, he has a very balanced swing and has proven on the showcase circuit that he can handle premium velocity. While he will likely move to third base (he played shortstop in high school) when he turns pro, he could be an above-average defender there. Groshans is an average runner, and it's possible he will be a threat to steal 8-to-12 bases early on in his pro career. His ultimate value will be determined by how good of a hitter he becomes. Most evaluators throw a future 50 or 55 grade on his hit tool, but as with any prep hitter, projecting the hit tool can sometimes be a fool's errand. His power, athleticism and defensive utility makes him someone worth gambling on in dynasty leagues.

15. Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (Georgia)

It is not hyperbole to say Hankins could have been the first prep right-hander to ever go 1-1 had he not hurt his shoulder. When healthy, he sports an 80-grade, upper-90s fastball that moves in on the hands of right-handers and away from left-handed hitters. He left a mid-February start with shoulder tightness, which cost him a month, and when he came back his stuff wasn't quite as sharp, with his fastball settling in as a low-90s offering, often lacking the electric life that made it so special. A healthy Hankins shares a lot of characteristics with Hunter Greene, standing 6-foot-6, 200 pounds with high-end athleticism and secondary offerings that lag way behind his fastball. His changeup will occasionally flash plus, but some evaluators worry about his ability to spin a breaking ball. He has only ever needed his fastball to dominate high school hitters. Pitchers with pre-draft medical concerns typically slide a bit, but Hankins' upside is such he should still command a pretty big signing bonus to pry him away from a commitment to Vanderbilt, as he could easily go to school and be the first overall pick in three years. From a fantasy standpoint, he is an excellent flyer for owners who are willing to be patient, as he has as much long-term upside as any player in this class.

16. Brady Singer, RHP, Florida

The two things that stand out right away with Singer are his low arm slot and the resulting incredible horizontal movement he gets on his low-90s fastball and potentially plus slider. He also has prototypical size, standing 6-foot-5, 180 pounds and has stayed pretty healthy for a 21-year-old pitcher. Singer, who opted to go to Florida rather than sign with Toronto out of high school as the No. 56 overall pick in the 2015 draft, was in the mix to be the first player selected in this draft, but got off to a slow start and was clearly passed by Casey Mize for the honor of top college starter in the class. Through 13 starts as a junior, Singer has a 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 92:18 K:BB in 88 innings. While he has been able to put up impressive numbers at Florida without above-average command or a reliable third pitch, those shortcomings open up a wide range of outcomes for him as a pro. If he is able to develop a quality changeup (some evaluators fully expect this to happen), then he should be able to make it as a No. 3 starter, even if his command is never an above-average tool. If he improves his changeup and his command as a pro, he could be a No. 2 starter. A high-leverage relief role would be waiting for him if he is unable to make strides in those two key areas.

17. Jeremiah Jackson, 2B/SS/3B, St. Luke's Episcopal HS (Alabama)

With one of the quickest bats in the draft and an athletic 6-foot, 175-pound frame, Jackson is one of the top prep position players in this year's class. He lacks a surefire defensive home, with second base seeming like the best long-term fit, but he could be sent out as a shortstop after signing. His bat will be his calling card, as he should hit for a fairly high average and could develop 20-plus homer power as he fills out, thanks to high-end bat speed. The only knock from a fantasy perspective is that he is not a plus runner, but he could chip in 8-to-12 steals annually early on as a pro.

18. Nick Schnell, OF, Roncalli HS (Indiana)

Schnell has really moved up draft boards over the past calendar year, now profiling as one of the more intriguing prep hitters in this class. He has at least average tools across the board, and could end up being a five-tool player. An above-average runner, Schnell figures to slow down a little as he fills out his 6-foot-2, 180-pound frame, but with added mass will come more over-the-fence pop. The big selling point is his all-fields approach that could allow him to develop a plus hit tool in pro ball. He has the speed and the arm to play all three outfield positions, which could make it easier for him to break into a big-league lineup.

19. Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (California)

While a handful of high-end prep talents in this draft hurt their stock this spring, Winn stands out as one of the high schoolers who climbed up boards instead. His ascension started with him transferring after his junior year from a Colorado high school to Southern California powerhouse Orange Lutheran. He not only faced much better competition after transferring, but more evaluators were able to get eyes on him against that improved caliber of prep hitters. Winn has touched 96 mph with his fastball this spring, but typically sits in the low-90s, locating the pitch to both sides of the plate. He features a big breaking curveball, a fairly new, albeit quality slider and a useful changeup. It will be interesting to see which of those pitches emerges as his go-to out pitch in pro ball, and whether he opts to scrap a pitch and settle in with a three-pitch repertoire. He has an athletic 6-foot-2, 195-pound frame that portends good command/control, and it's possible he is able to add a tick or two to his fastball with professional training. Winn doesn't have the most upside among the prep pitchers from this class, but he comes with very few concerns.

20. Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida

An extremely projectable 6-foot-5, 180-pound righty, Kowar isn't as famous as Florida's Friday night starter, Brady Singer, but he's got a chance to be the best Gators hurler selected in this draft. His fastball is one of the best such pitches in this class -- a mid-90s dart that can touch 98 mph and could touch triple digits at some point once he gets into pro ball. There are concerns that the pitch lacks life, which could make it pretty hittable, even at that velocity. Fortunately he excels at changing speeds, already boasting a plus changeup, which is his second-best offering. His curveball lags well behind as a fringe offering, so it's fair to wonder if he might end up in the bullpen if that pitch never develops. On the other hand, if he is able to add a quality breaking ball to the mix, we could be talking about a No. 2 starter.

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