Farm Futures: September Call-up Candidates

Predicting when a player like Nomar Mazara or Andrew Benintendi will be called up to make their big league debut during the first five months of the season is an abstract activity that requires instincts, experience and a good feel for how a player's skills will play at the highest level. However, predicting which prospects and former prospects will be recalled when the calendar turns to September and rosters expand is more science than art.

In 95 percent of cases, a player's standing on the 40-man roster will open or shut the door on any conversation about a September call-up. There are very few instances where adding a player to the 40-man roster on Sept. 1 makes sense. This is especially true of teams that are not contending. Look at Orlando Arcia and Dansby Swanson. Neither player is really ready to hit big league pitching, but their respective teams saw a compelling argument for bringing them up to the big leagues. In Arcia's case, the Brewers wanted to show their shortstop of the future what he needs to work on in the offseason by allowing him to fail against big league pitching over the final two months. With Swanson, the Braves mostly just wanted to throw their fans a bone while also getting a sense of how ready Swanson is for the big leagues. Both shortstops were going to play almost every day, so it made no sense to wait until Sept. 1 to make those moves.

There are two instances when a team will add a player to the 40-man roster in September. The first instance is when a contending team has a need and the only internal replacement is a prospect who is not on the 40-man roster. This is very rare. The second scenario is when a team sees value in a player finishing out the minor league season with their Triple-A or Double-A affiliate, and also sees value in that player joining the big league club for the final four weeks of the MLB season. This also typically only happens with contending teams -- Corey Seager's call-up last year is a recent example of both scenarios converging.

What follows is an attempt to highlight 49 players who could be added to big league rosters when rosters expand next month. They are sorted by the position they qualify for in fantasy, and within those positions they are ranked in order of how appealing they should be for fantasy owners looking to receive a boost over the final month of the season. Every player listed under a position is currently on their team's 40-man roster. The last section covers a handful of players who could be called up but are not on their team's 40-man roster. Spoiler: I buried the lede down there.

Catcher

Tom Murphy (Rockies): Offers plus power and could play three days a week with home games in Coors Field. Playing time could tick up if he hits right away. The Rockies, like two-thirds of big league teams, are deploying below league-average hitters behind the plate, so Murphy would offer a big offensive upgrade.

Austin Hedges (Padres): Defensive ace is finally starting to hit. He could be simply capitalizing on the advantageous conditions in the Pacific Coast League, but he has 18 homers and just 45 strikeouts in 71 games. The Padres don't seem to love Derek Norris or Christian Bethancourt, the latter of which has started half his games in the outfield lately. Hedges could take over as the starting catcher down the stretch if he carries over his apparent offensive improvements against big league pitching.

Andrew Susac (Brewers): Currently on the minor league DL with an oblique injury. If he can get healthy, the Brewers have no reason not to take a look at him in September. He is the best offensive catcher on the 40-man, and could reasonably open 2017 as the starter behind the dish.

Austin Barnes (Dodgers): The rare utility player who also catches, Barnes offers more speed than power but his minor league numbers suggest a strong approach and hit tool. He might only play once or twice a week, barring an injury ahead of him on the depth chart.

First Base/DH

Dan Vogelbach (Mariners): Starting to heat up after a slow start with Tacoma following the trade from the Cubs, Vogelbach has a .390 OBP despite some rough luck on balls in play. He has a chance to seize a significant workload, as he could take at-bats from Adam Lind (87 wRC+) or he could push Nelson Cruz to the outfield on a more permanent basis, supplanting Nori Aoki (91 wRC+).

Kennys Vargas (Twins): The Twins seem primed to completely mismanage the playing time distribution among their young players down the stretch, so it's hard to say how much Vargas might play. What can't be argued however is that Vargas has a .318 ISO and .955 OPS in the big leagues this year.

Second Base

Dilson Herrera (Reds): Has been hampered by lower-body soreness, but he is essentially big-league ready. The Reds dodged a bullet by landing Herrera over Brandon Nimmo in the Jay Bruce trade, as Herrera could be an above-average offensive contributor relative to his position and Nimmo is a fourth outfielder. Brandon Phillips looms as a seemingly immovable object at second base, but perhaps the Reds will grow a spine and start playing their youngsters in September.

Joe Wendle (A's): If not now for Wendle, when? He is 26 and has 12 homers and 13 steals at Triple-A. He's probably nothing more than a Quadruple-A bat when all is said and done, but there's no reason for the A's not to give him a look down the stretch given what they are currently deploying at the keystone.

Rob Refsnyder (Yankees): Can play all over the diamond and is on fire at Triple-A (1.095 OPS in August). The Yankees may struggle to find him more than one or two starts per week, but an injury ahead of him could change that.

Third Base

None, although in formats with liberal position eligibility rules, Joey Gallo could become eligible here.

Shortstop

None. They are all already up.

Outfield

Byron Buxton (Twins): Continues to rake at Triple-A and continues to be treated like a part-time player whenever he is up in the big leagues. Obviously he isn't making enough contact to warrant seeing everyday at-bats on a contender, but the Twins are not a contender. Maybe Paul Molitor has finally gotten that memo?

Michael Conforto (Mets): As with Buxton, Conforto's playing time has been completely mishandled this season. That said it's not a stretch to envision one of the Mets' veteran outfielders getting hurt or Terry Collins getting fired, or the Mets' brass sending down a mandate to play the young players if they fall completely out of the race. Conforto is still one of the best pure hitters on this 40-man roster.

Yasiel Puig (Dodgers): It's hardly even newsworthy that he is raking at Triple-A. He wasn't sent down because he wasn't producing (125 wRC+ in July), he was sent down because his teammates and coaches couldn't stand to be around him. That element in the equation has not changed but perhaps the Dodgers will feel compelled to bring him back into the fold, as he clearly belongs on an expanded roster from a talent standpoint.

Joey Gallo (Rangers): Here is an example of a player who needs to play every day and therefore needs to be in the minor leagues until that season is over. At that point, the Rangers will obviously summon him for the final four weeks if for nothing more than just a left-handed bench bat with 80-grade power. The Carlos Gomez signing makes this situation even murkier than it would have been but Gallo is still a strong candidate to hit five or six homers in part-time duty in September.

Manuel Margot (Padres): Margot, not Hunter Renfroe, is the Padres outfield prospect who is on the 40-man roster. He is also a far better long-term prospect than Renfroe and is having a more impressive season at Triple-A, when factoring in that Renfroe is three and a half years his senior. The Padres may not call up Margot in an effort to gain an extra year of control by not starting his service time clock and holding him down for a few weeks next year, but he has certainly earned a look in September.

Roman Quinn (Phillies): He probably isn't big league ready but it wouldn't be surprising if the Phillies opted to get a look at him, considering he is on the 40-man. They seemingly want to trade Odubel Herrera in the offseason, so they might want to see what Quinn looks like against big league pitching before pulling the trigger on such a deal. Quinn could steal 10-12 bases in September, even in a part-time role.

Terrance Gore (Royals): He can't hit at all, but even if he is just used as a pinch runner, he could steal eight or 10 bases in September.

Albert Almora (Cubs): On the minor league DL with a thumb injury, Almora may not be an option in September. However, if he can get healthy by then the bat and glove are both big league ready, but he probably won't offer much in terms of counting stats.

Jorge Bonifacio (Royals): He is slumping hard in the second half (.648 OPS) after clubbing 13 homers in 84 games in the first half, but it is still a season that Bonifacio could be rewarded for with a September call-up. The Royals' outfield is healthy again but given the actors in this play, that could change in a hurry.

Raimel Tapia (Rockies): I don't see any reason to start the clock on Tapia's service time, especially since the Rockies are perfectly set in terms of big-league outfield depth. However he is on the 40-man and he is hitting at Triple-A, so he is worth keeping an eye on in case the Rockies suffer an injury or try to move someone like Carlos Gonzalez to first base.

Steven Moya (Tigers): Moya is a very poor man's Gallo in the sense that his only big-league ready skill is power and there is nowhere for him to play. Look for him to offer left-handed pop off the bench over the final month -- a role that could net his owners four or five bombs.

Dalton Pompey (Blue Jays): Pompey wouldn't be seen as much of a prospect even if he were still prospect eligible. However, he could offer some speed on the bases in a part-time role.

Brandon Nimmo (Mets): Like Conforto, Nimmo is raking at Triple-A, but unlike Conforto that production isn't translatable to the big leagues. However, in a small sample he could get hot/lucky over the span of a few weeks. It's just hard to see where the at-bats would come from.

Starting Pitcher

Lucas Giolito (Nationals): He is still about 10.2 innings shy of last year's total, so it would make sense for the Nationals to keep him pitching through the end of the big league season. It's unclear if there will be a rotation spot available for him but as a future big league ace, his per-start upside dwarfs that of any other pitcher on this list.

Yohander Mendez (Rangers): After Giolito, this list gets pretty unappealing. The Rangers' veteran starters are all starting to get healthy but that could change quickly and, after Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, there aren't any starters who have pitched well enough to claim to have a rotation spot 100 percent locked up heading into September. Mendez has been even better at Triple-A than he was at Double-A and while he needs to cut down on the free passes, he has the stuff to hold his own against big league hitters.

Cody Reed (Reds): One of several Reds pitching prospects at Triple-A and on the 40-man, Reed is the most big-league ready despite his struggles in the major league rotation earlier this year. He is also 2.1 innings away from losing his prospect eligibility, so that's something to watch for in dynasty leagues that take that into account.

Matt Wisler (Braves): Still a solid No. 4 starter long term with the potential to be a No. 3, Wisler should slot back into the big-league rotation at some point in September, although wins will obviously be hard to come by.

Luis Severino (Yankees): The Yankees have given Severino several opportunities to stake his claim to a rotation spot and while he has failed in those instances, he continues to pitch well at Triple-A. The time may come when they decide there is nothing to lose by letting him stick in the rotation down the stretch, regardless of the results.

David Paulino (Astros): Hard thrower may make more sense in the bullpen than the rotation in 2016, as he has made just one start at Triple-A, but he has the stuff to make the most of a spot-start opportunity if one arises.

Jacob Faria (Rays): Faria has held his own in the PCL (4.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 53 strikeouts in 51 innings) and is seemingly seventh on the Rays' organizational depth chart at starting pitcher, behind Matt Andriese and the soon-to-return Alex Cobb. This means there are scenarios where Faria could get a few starts down the stretch. It also helps that he could reasonably throw another 30 or 40 innings this season.

Jharel Cotton (A's): Cotton has had one amazing start at Triple-A since coming over from the Dodgers, one awful start, and a couple in between. That same kind of variance would be expected in the big leagues, although the A's have many options to choose from if they want to tweak the rotation in September.

Taylor Jungmann (Brewers): Milwaukee may want to spare Jungmann from another turn in the big league rotation this year in an effort to protect his psyche, but he has pitched much better since heading to Double-A (2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) after a disastrous stint with Triple-A Colorado Springs.

Carson Fulmer (White Sox): The White Sox have stated that Fulmer will be stretched out as a starter at Triple-A with the intention of him returning to the big leagues this season as a starter. Unfortunately, nothing he has done this season suggests he would have success turning over a big league lineup.

Drew Hutchison (Pirates): It's clear that Pittsburgh loves Hutchison more than any of his past fantasy owners do, based on what they gave up to get him, but it feels like he will get his chance in 2017 and not this season.

Amir Garrett (Reds): Garrett would probably garner some interest on the waiver wire if he got the call, but his walk rate has spiked and his K-rate has dropped significantly since getting to Triple-A. He isn't ready, and the Reds probably know this.

Robert Stephenson (Reds): The Reds may have reached a point with Stephenson where they will just let him sink or swim in the big league rotation, even though there is no reason to think he is ready. The fact is, he has logged over 175 innings at Triple-A and isn't showing significant signs of being any more ready for the next level. The team will need to start having serious discussions about transitioning him to a relief role, so they might as well get some more data to reference in those deliberations.

German Marquez (Rockies): He has only made two starts at Triple-A so it seems unlikely that the Rockies would slot him into the big league rotation just yet, but he is only nine innings over last year's total so it can be argued that he could use a few more starts this season. Marquez has a mid-90s fastball and plus curveball, giving him a chance to be serviceable long term despite the obvious Coors Field factor.

Raul Alcantara (A's): Quietly dominating since getting to Triple-A (1.01 ERA, 0.87 WHIP in six starts), Alcantara is likely running out of innings in 2016, having more than doubled his total from last season. That said, if he were to receive a spot start in September owners in deep leagues would have to take notice.

Steven Brault (Pirates): The Pirates made clear their preference for Chad Kuhl over Brault earlier in the season and there is little reason to think that hierarchy could change before the end of the year. Tyler Glasnow also figures to come off the DL to rejoin the big league rotation at some point.

Ty Blach (Giants): All command/control, but he has survived the PCL this year. The Giants could become desperate for rotation reinforcements and Blach's resume reads better than that of Clayton Blackburn.

Joan Gregorio (Giants): Much more upside than Blach, but his struggles in the PCL make it seem unlikely that he would get a shot if they summon a minor leaguer to join the rotation.

Dillon Overton (A's): I still like Overton's stuff slightly more than what teammate Daniel Mengden brings to the table, but on the whole they are similarly uninteresting in most formats as No. 5 starter types.

Daniel Mengden (A's): Mengden has dominated in the minors and predictably failed over a prolonged stretch in the majors. He is a back-of-the-rotation arm, at best, in the long term.

Non-40-Man Candidates

Yoan Moncada (Red Sox): For owners looking to take a big swing over the final month, Moncada certainly fits the bill. The Red Sox's third basemen are third worst in baseball with a 58 wRC+ since the All-Star break and Moncada has started his last three games at the hot corner. Look out, world.

Jose De Leon (Dodgers): Owners have been waiting all season for De Leon to join the brittle Dodgers rotation and he now has had back-to-back 10-strikeout starts for the second time in the span of two months. He is 35.2 innings behind last year's mark, so it only makes sense that the Dodgers would keep him pitching when the minor league season is over. It's unclear if that will be as a starter or as a reliever, but the upside he'd bring in the rotation warrants another week of patience on the part of his owners.

Carlos Gomez (Rangers): Something about Gomez and the Rangers seems like a perfect fit. I'm not saying he'll hit when he gets the call, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did. Shin-Soo Choo's injury opens the door for playing time and regardless of whether he hits, he's a better option than Delino DeShields.

Bradley Zimmer (Indians): Zimmer has a 35.4 percent K-rate at Triple-A, so it's hard to argue that he is big league ready. However, outfield remains a bit of a weak spot for the Indians, especially relative to other playoff teams. Zimmer could be brought up as a power/speed threat against righties and then sent back to Triple-A early next season to try to iron out his approach and his issues against lefties.

Hunter Renfroe (Padres): I've made it clear that I have less faith in Renfroe's hit tool than it seems most do, or perhaps he just has a very loud collection of dynasty league owners. The Padres could use upgrades across the entire outfield but right field is a particularly gaping hole, as catcher Christian Bethancourt has been getting looks there of late. For that reason, it would not be surprising if the Padres gave Renfroe a look in right over the final month but financially it makes little sense to start his clock now, given that he's not on the 40-man.

Ozzie Albies (Braves): The Braves have said that Albies isn't far behind Swanson, but after already throwing their fans one bone, do they need to throw them another over the final month of the season? It's possible but it doesn't seem all that logical, unless they have every intention of opening next season with Albies as the Opening Day starter at the keystone. If he gets the call he will offer solid speed at second base.

Josh Hader (Brewers): I think if Hader was going to get his chance with the Brewers this year, it probably would have come last week when they had an opening in the rotation that lined up perfectly for him. He responded to not getting the call by tossing his best start of the year against a Round Rock lineup that is littered with former and future big leaguers. Hader is ready, but it seems like the Brewers are going to wait to gain an extra year of control and delay his service time clock before bringing him up.