Farm Futures: Risers in the Updated Top 400

The latest update to the top 400 prospect rankings may be the most extensive update I have ever done during the season, just in terms of the the amount of players I considered and the amount of time I dedicated to this specific update. Not only did I add 45 players from the 2018 MLB draft to the list, but I added an additional 39 players, meaning 84 players fell off the list entirely. I try to keep the list as up-to-date as possible, but I purposely left it unattended for most of a three-week span that I spent writing up the analysis for the draft. In some cases, this meant that I hadn't looked at certain players for a total of four or five weeks, so there was quite a bit of movement, which you can see via the up/down arrows on the list.

I don't have time to address all the big risers on this update, but I've cherry-picked a few players in certain ranges of the list that I think are particularly interesting for dynasty-league owners capable of making in-season additions.

1-100

Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres
New rank: 40
Old rank: 69

In addition to having perhaps the cleanest numbers of any minor-league pitcher (1.91 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 70:3 K:BB in 42.1 IP in the Cal League), Paddack may have the best changeup in the minor leagues. He is so deceptive when changing speeds, that his changeup allows his 92-95 mph fastball to play up as at least a plus offering, and it may be a 70-grade pitch when factoring in how well he spots it. Paddack logged 45.1 innings in 2015, 42.1 innings in 2016, missed 2017 due to Tommy John surgery and is now one start away from setting a career high in innings for a season. The Padres will likely cap him at around 90 innings this year, so don't expect him to pitch his way to the majors. However, he could be in the big-league rotation for a good chunk of 2019 if he finishes this season strong.

Drew Waters, OF, Braves
New rank: 41
Old rank: 194

This may seem aggressive, but go ask the Waters owner in your league if he'll flip him right now for any of the guys I have ranked behind him. I'm guessing the answer will be no. Waters clearly had fantasy relevant tools when the Braves took him with the 41st overall pick last year, offering the potential for plus power and plus speed. There were some questions about his hit tool (Waters is a switch hitter), particularly after he struck out 70 times in 50 games split between the Gulf Coast League and the Appalachian League in 2017. He has closed a lot of those holes in his swing this year, however, with just 38 strikeouts in 45 games (19.4 percent strikeout rate) against Low-A pitchers. A 19-year-old with a .244 ISO, 156 wRC+ and 10-for-12 success rate on the bases through his first two months of full-season ball? Hell yes.

Calvin Mitchell, OF, Pirates
New rank: 56
Old rank: 212

The selling point on Waters is more about the power and speed than the hit tool, but with Mitchell, it's all about that hit tool, which is one of the best among Low-A hitters. The fluidity of his swing reminds me a lot of Jesus Sanchez, whose hit tool has propelled him to No. 18 overall on the top 400. That's not to say Mitchell can't be a good contributor in the power and speed categories, as he has 20-to-30 homer upside and enough speed to steal 10-to-15 bases early on, but his batting average upside will always drive his dynasty-league value. His .324 batting average ranks second in the Sally League, and his 153 wRC+ is tied for fifth.

Seuly Matias, OF, Royals
New rank: 57
Old rank: 97

Matias won't turn 20 until September, yet he has 20 home runs in 51 games in his first tour of the Sally League. He is an incredibly difficult prospect to rank for dynasty-league purposes, because while his 80-grade game power is obvious, so are his flaws. Fortunately, we know how this probably turns out. His rate stats in the Sally League as a 19-year-old are almost identical to Joey Gallo's as a 19-year-old in 2013, and I'd be surprised if that comp doesn't hold up pretty well over the long haul. So where should Gallo have ranked when he was at Low-A, knowing what we know now? I think top 100 is a cinch, especially when considering how easy it would have been to flip Gallo for a nice haul in a trade at any point in the past 4-5 seasons, but top 50 would be pushing it, given that I don't think it's realistic to expect Matias to ever be a .250 hitter in the big leagues, at least not without sacrificing some of that power.

Matt Thaiss, 1B, Angels
New rank: 61
Old rank: 218

We have to be flexible with our opinions on prospects, and Thaiss is a perfect example of this. When he seemed like a high AVG, high OBP first baseman with subpar power, it was fair to rank him as if he didn't profile as a long-term everyday option at the position. Through 58 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he already has more home runs (10) than he did in 133 games between High-A and Double-A in 2017 (nine), so he has clearly improved his one glaring weakness. That power has come at the expense of patience, as his walk rate is way down, particularly at Triple-A (4.7 percent), but that's a tradeoff we'll take all day long in standard roto leagues. Another month of this type of production and Thaiss should be primed to take over as the everyday first baseman for the Angels.

101-200

Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers
New rank: 101
Old rank: 214

Making contact and working the count have never been areas of weakness for Lux, but he had struggled to do damage when making contact prior to this season. Through 58 games he has a .203 ISO and is slashing .312/.396/.515 as an age-appropriate 20-year-old in his first tour of the California League. Even when adjusting for the hitter-friendly nature of the league, this still qualifies as a legitimate breakout. Lux also has more speed than his 7-for-14 success rate on the bases indicates. He should be able to stick at either shortstop, second base or third base in the majors, and it's looking like his bat has a chance to profile at any of those three spots.

Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, Yankees
New rank: 102
Old rank: 181

This ranking has literally nothing to do with the fact Loaisiga will be making his big-league debut Friday against the Rays. I actually selfishly hate the fact that he started getting rumored for that start, as it priced me out on him in some dynasty leagues. Loaisiga is legit and has made up for lost time, as he came into the year as a 23-year-old with just 2.1 innings at Low-A under his belt, missing a lot of time with Tommy John surgery (in early 2016) and various injuries before that. He has a plus fastball, plus breaking ball (a hard curveball with steep 1-to-7 break) and an improving changeup. Loaisiga has also demonstrated excellent control (58:4 K:BB in 45 innings), although it would not be surprising to see him get squeezed a little in his first big-league start. If you added him in a dynasty league, do not overreact if he is overmatched by big-league hitters -- he has just 25 innings above High-A under his belt, after all. This is a legitimate mid-rotation arm long term with the upside to pitch like a No. 2 starter on a per-start basis. The biggest long-term concern I have is that he may struggle to hold up over a full big-league season, given his lengthy injury history and 5-foot-11, 170-pound frame.

Josh James, RHP, Astros
New rank: 103
Old rank: 252

Pop-up prospects are always fun, but they usually involve a player like Michel Baez last year, popping up in the lower levels, or a hitter who might be a little too old for his league, taking advantage of some hitter-friendly conditions. James is a different case, as he is a pitcher with a good frame (6-foot-3, 206 pounds) and good stuff who has struck out 53 hitters in 34.1 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League since quickly earning a promotion from Double-A earlier in the season. He has popped up, partly because he addressed his sleep apnea issue this past offseason, which may have been one of the reasons his previously ordinary fastball has touched 98 mph this year. Sometimes these guys end up fizzling out, but he has at least mid-rotation stuff, and his dominance at Triple-A indicates there could be even more upside than that. While Forrest Whitley could be an option to join the big-league rotation in the second half, James is starting to look like a legitimate possibility as well, should the Astros need a spot starter in the coming weeks.

Luis Rengifo, SS/2B, Angels
New rank: 142
Old rank: Not ranked

Was Rengifo, a 5-foot-10 shortstop who will likely move to second base, created in a lab specifically so I could fall in love with him and overrate him as a dynasty-league prospect? It sure seems that way. He walks more than he strikes out (27:35 K:BB in 267 plate appearances across High-A and Double-A), distributes his hits almost evenly across the field, and combines sneaky pop (.502 SLG) with obvious speed (26-for-35 on stolen-base attempts in just 58 games). Additionally, at 21 years old, he is over three years younger than the average player in the Southern League. With all this in mind, maybe I'm not being aggressive enough, putting him at only 142 on the top 400.

Elvin Rodriguez, RHP, Tigers
New rank: 196
Old rank: Not ranked

The player to be named later that the Tigers received from the Angels in last summer's Justin Upton trade, Rodriguez doesn't just have one of the best curveballs at Low-A. When he's on his game, he sports one of the best curveballs in all the minor leagues. An extremely projectable 6-foot-3, 160 pounds, Rodriguez has obvious No. 2 starter upside if he can add a tick to his fastball in the coming years (not unreasonable) and prove he can hold velocity deep into starts. The development of his changeup will also be critical, but given his feel for spin and early developmental gains, there's no reason to think that can't eventually be an above-average pitch. He has a 1.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 37:7 K:BB over his last five starts (29.1 innings) at Low-A, so the time to pounce in deeper dynasty leagues is now.

201-400

Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates
New rank: 213
Old rank: Not ranked

Oliva received a $200,000 bonus in the seventh round last year as a college outfielder out of Arizona who never showed enough consistency as an amateur for teams to really buy into his impressive tools – he's a plus runner with at least 50-grade power. The Pirates, a typically conservative organization, clearly knew what they had in him this year, skipping him over Low-A completely and aggressively assigning him to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He has a quick bat, and hasn't shown an all-fields approach just yet, but the fact that he has been 39 percent better than the average hitter in the league after his aggressive assignment is very encouraging. With a slender 6-foot-3, 187-pound frame, he should remain a threat on the bases into his late 20s, and if he handles Double-A pitching the same way he has handled High-A, he will be scooped up in most dynasty formats.

Miguel Hiraldo, SS/2B, Blue Jays
New rank: 230
Old rank: Not ranked

Hiraldo received a $750,000 bonus out of the Dominican Republic last July 2 as one of the best pure hitters in his class. It is a tiny sample size, but he is hitting .381/.435/.690 with two home runs, one steal and a 9:4 K:BB in 42 at-bats (19 percent K-rate) in the Dominican Summer League. It's a little too early to add him in many dynasty leagues, but monitor his production carefully, as he may need to be added in a month or two if he keeps this up.

Ronny Rojas, 2B, Yankees
New rank: 252
Old rank: Not ranked

Rojas was so young he couldn't legally sign with the Yankees with the rest of his July 2 class, and had to wait until he turned 16 on Aug. 23 last year before he was officially given his $1 million bonus. Like Hiraldo, Rojas is a bat-over-glove prospect, which is great for our purposes. He has a 37.9 percent strikeout rate in a tiny 29 plate-appearance sample, but that shouldn't come as a surprise given his age. He has also hit a homer and stolen a couple bases while walking nine times (31 percent rate) in six games, so his offensive game appears to be as advertised. Like Hiraldo, Rojas doesn't have to be added just yet unless you're in a very serious league, but he has big-time fantasy upside.