Farm Futures: Lower-Level Arms On the Rise

Last week I profiled the Rookie league hitters who have improved their stock this season, focusing on some high-pedigree draft picks and international signings. After the dust from the trade deadline settles next week I'll break down all the key prospects who switched teams, but this week I wanted to stick with last week's theme and look at some lower-level pitching prospects who have really improved their stock. Now is the time to grab these guys if they are available in dynasty leagues, as the hype surrounding them will really pick up in the coming months.

Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Low-A Great Lakes (Dodgers)
Rank: 86
Age: 20
Stats: 2.17 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 46:11 K:BB in 29 IP.

Alvarez started the season in the Arizona League, dominating to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 20 innings. Somehow he has been even more impressive since being promoted to the Midwest League on July 20. He has posted a 20:1 K:BB in just nine innings (two starts) since his promotion and is looking like the front line starter the Dodgers thought they might be getting when they signed him for $16 million during last year's J-2 period. Alvarez is already owned in most serious dynasty leagues and his trade value is at an all-time high.

Kolby Allard, LHP, Low-A Rome (Braves)
Rank: 92
Age: 18
Stats: 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 49:10 K:BB in 44.1 IP.

The 14th overall selection in last year's draft gave up 11 earned runs in his first two starts of the year for Low-A Rome, but since then he has given up just four earned runs in 37.1 innings between the Appalachian League and the South Atlantic League. He won't turn 19 until Aug. 13 and he has easily re-established himself as a top 100 prospect. The Rome Braves may have the best rotation in the lower levels of the minors and Allard is the ace of that rotation. He'll likely be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in the majors, but there's room to dream on a little bit more.

Max Fried, LHP, Low-A Rome (Braves)
Rank: 121
Age: 22
Stats: 3.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 84:39 K:BB in 82.1 IP.

Fried appears to be back to form after missing essentially two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has been dealing with a recurring blister issue lately that has landed him on the 7-day DL twice, but prior to this minor ailment he was really rolling in the South Atlantic League. He has a 1.98 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 50 innings over his last 10 starts, making up for a rough start to the season. In fact, he has logged scoreless outings in five of his last seven appearances and was probably nearing a promotion to High-A Carolina before the blister issue popped up. His age and level may scare some folks off, but he is a 20-year-old in baseball years taking into account the time he missed. He projects to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in time if he can avoid another serious arm injury.

Mitch Keller, RHP, Low-A West Virginia (Pirates)
Rank: 122
Age: 20
Stats: 2.86 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 100:14 K:BB in 97.2 IP.

It took Keller a little longer to reach a full-season league than some of the other highly touted prep pitchers from the 2014 draft class -- Grant Holmes, Luis Ortiz, Justus Sheffield, Michael Kopech, Jack Flaherty, Sean Reid-Foley, Cody Reed -- but he is now very much in that class of pitching prospect. The 6-foot-3 righty has scuffled a little bit of late as his ERA has spiked from 1.89 on May 31 to 2.86, but his overall numbers are still brilliant. Keller doesn't have the upside of Holmes or Kopech, but there appears to be a very good chance he'll make it as a solid mid-rotation starter if he can stay healthy.

Chris Paddack, RHP, Low-A Fort Wayne (Padres)
Rank: 123
Age: 20
Stats: 0.85 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 71:5 K:BB in 42.1 IP.

News came down Tuesday that Paddack is dealing with an elbow/forearm strain which puts a bit of a damper on his immediate outlook, but his success this season trumps that of any other pitcher listed in this article. He was traded from Miami to San Diego in the Fernando Rodney trade earlier this year, as the Padres' scouts noticed Paddack's stuff took a big jump forward this season and he emerged as a rare prize in a very weak Marlins' system. The 6-foot-4 Texan should be scooped up in all formats where 150 or more prospects are rostered, although owners should cross their fingers with regard to his recent injury.

Franklyn Kilome, RHP, Low-A Lakewood (Phillies)
Rank: 137
Age: 21
Stats: 4.46 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 82:42 K:BB in 78.2 IP.

Kilome's season line doesn't look impressive at all. But consider the fact that he gave up 17 earned runs in his first three starts and has given up just 19 earned runs in the following 13 starts. He has a 3.17 ERA and 57 strikeouts in his last 54 innings in the South Atlantic League and, despite the fact that he is already 21, there are not five pitchers in Low-A with more long-term fantasy upside. That ugly season line may still offer an opportunity to buy low on Kilome but he won't be available on the cheap in the offseason if he keeps up this current pace.

Dylan Cease, RHP, Short-Season Eugene (Cubs)
Rank: 143
Age: 20
Stats: 3.32 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 23:8 K:BB in 21.2 IP.

Cease's ability to hit triple digits with his fastball is well-known among prospect hounds and it's exciting to see him putting his repertoire to good use with excellent results in the Northwest League so far this year. There will be stretches where his command comes and goes as he works on harnessing his electric arsenal, but Cease has the potential to pitch near the top of a big league rotation with the realistic floor of a closer. Of course he'll be turning 21 this offseason and may still not have any experience above short-season ball heading into 2017, so it's fair to wonder when he'll crack 100 innings in a season and how long it will take him to reach the majors.

Mike Soroka, RHP, Low-A Rome (Braves)
Rank: 147
Age: 18
Stats: 3.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 87:26 K:BB in 104.2 IP.

Soroka and Allard make for quite a pair of first-round picks for Atlanta from last year's draft, as both are completely dominating in the lower levels as 18-year-olds. Soroka, unlike Allard, has been in the Rome rotation all year long despite being selected 14 picks later at No. 28. While his performance has tapered off a little of late, his projectable 6-foot-4, 195-pound frame and a really strong three-pitch mix make him a fairly safe bet to make it as a No. 3 starter down the road. If his curveball or changeup emerge as a second plus pitch to go with his fastball then he could be a low-end No. 2 starter.

Triston McKenzie, RHP, Short-Season Mahoning Valley (Indians)
Rank: 164
Age: 18
Stats: 0.61 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 47:14 K:BB in 44.1 IP.

It's easy to see why McKenzie has been the subject of many a trade rumor over the past two weeks,as he has the look of a future front line starter. The lanky, 6-foot-5 righty has the potential for two plus-plus pitches in his fastball and curveball and his changeup also profiles as at least an average offering down the road. I recently picked up McKenzie in TDGX (an expert dynasty league where over 200 prospects are rostered) so he should be widely available right now, although I can't really figure out why that is. Nonetheless, it's now or never for owners who want to grab McKenzie. It would not be surprising to seem him ranked as a top 100 prospect by some outlets heading into 2017.

Joey Wentz, LHP, Appalachian League (Braves)
Rank: 168
Age: 18
Stats: 3.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 23:6 K:BB in 14.2 IP.

Wentz didn't fare well in his first start in the Appalachian League (six earned runs in 2.2 innings), but he certainly earned the promotion after logging 12 shutout innings in the Gulf Coast League in his first taste of pro ball. He now has 23 strikeouts in 14.2 innings this season across the two Rookie leagues. It seems like the Braves really nailed their strategy of signing Ian Anderson for an under slot deal at No. 3 and then splurging on Wentz for just over $3 million (almost double the pick value) after he fell to them with the 40th overall pick. The athletic 6-foot-5 southpaw should have plenty of hype surrounding him heading into dynasty league drafts next spring and it would not be surprising if he were treated like a top five pitching prospect from this year's class.

Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Low-A Peoria (Cardinals)
Rank: 170
Age: 20
Stats: 4.08 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 119:45 K:BB in 90.1 IP.

Alcantara's organizational mate, Junior Fernandez, gets more attention but Alcantara's 2016 numbers have been more impressive. He leads the Midwest League with 119 strikeouts in just 90.1 innings. While the control has been lacking at times, dynasty league owners would much rather own the 20-year-old with the 29.8 percent K-rate who walks too many batters than the command/control specialist who posts excellent ratios in the minor leagues and lacks the stuff to get big league hitters out consistently. Alcantara has plenty of time to work on his control, and he is athletic enough that he should figure it out in time. If not, he'll be a late-inning force.

Luiz Gohara, LHP, Low-A Clinton (Mariners)
Rank: 173
Age: 19
Stats: 2.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 48:10 K:BB in 38 IP.

How many 19-year-old pitching prospects seem like they have been around forever? Indeed, Gohara made six starts in the Appalachian League when he was 16 years old back in 2013, so he's been on the radar for quite some time. He turns 20 on July 31, but it remains impressive that he has dominated the Northwest League and Midwest League the way he has so far this season. Gohara boasts a 29.7 percent K-rate in Low-A and a 34.4 percent K-rate in short-season ball and he has essentially cut his walk rate in half compared to his 2014 and 2015 rates. He was no doubt rostered in deeper dynasty leagues back when he was the flavor of the month as a 17-year-old, but his owner could have cut bait after watching him struggle over the past couple years. If this is the case now is the time to grab him, as he should get plenty of attention during the offseason.

Devin Williams, RHP, Low-A Wisconsin (Brewers)
Rank: 174
Age: 21
Stats: 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 58:28 K:BB in 57 IP.

Williams is another Low-A arm that is starting to get into a rhythm of late. He has a 2.79 ERA and 46 strikeouts over his last 42 innings and is flashing the same nasty stuff that resulted in a lot of dynasty league owners buying in during and after his 2015 season with Low-A Wisconsin. If he could cut back on the walks a bit he'd quickly earn a promotion to High-A Brevard County. He'll likely start 2017 in the Florida State League, where he could really explode if the command takes a step forward.

Touki Toussaint, RHP, Low-A Rome (Braves)
Rank: 176
Age: 20
Stats: 4.60 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 84:52 K:BB in 92 IP.

I remain very skeptical of Toussaint's chances of making it as a starter, but there have been some promising signs lately. He has a 2.78 ERA and 64:26 K:BB in 55 innings over his last 10 starts with Low-A Rome and while that walk rate is still too high, it is an improvement over his previous levels. Toussaint is also finally starting to miss bats the way many expected him to when the Diamondbacks nabbed him with the No. 16 pick in the 2014 draft. While Toussaint doesn't quite crack the top 10 in a very deep Braves farm system, he would rank in the top three of the Diamondbacks' system. Hey, at least the Diamondbacks saved $10 million by unloading Bronson Arroyo in that deal.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Roniel Raudes, RHP, Low-A Greenville (Red Sox)
Age: 18
Stats: 4.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 80:16 K:BB in 80 IP.

Albert Abreu, RHP, Low-A Quad Cities (Astros)
Age: 20
Stats: 3.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 90:43 K:BB in 77 IP.

Dakota Chalmers, RHP, Short-Season Vermont (A's)
Age: 19
Stats: 2.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 33:14 K:BB in 31.1 IP.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Appalachian League (Cardinals)
Age: 19
Stats: 2.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 16:11 K:BB in 26.2 IP.

Hansel Rodriguez, RHP, Appalachian League (Traded from Blue Jays to Padres)
Age: 19
Stats: 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26:11 K:BB in 32.1 IP.

Jio Orozco, RHP, Arizona League (Mariners)
Age: 18
Stats: 3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 42:8 K:BB in 32.2 IP.

Bailey Falter, LHP, Short-Season Williamsport (Phillies)
Age: 19
Stats: 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 34:7 K:BB in 28 IP.

Dennis Santana, RHP, Low-A Great Lakes (Dodgers)
Age: 20
Stats: 3.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 89:43 K:BB in 82 IP.

Brock Burke, LHP, Short-Season Hudson Valley (Rays)
Age: 19
Stats: 3.18 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 33:11 K:BB in 28.1 IP.

Antonio Santillan, RHP, Pioneer League (Reds)
Age: 19
Stats: 3.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 46:16 K:BB in 39 IP.

Hector Perez, RHP, Low-A Quad Cities (Astros)
Age: 20
Stats: 2.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 39:14 K:BB in 32.2 IP.