Farm Futures: Buy-Low, Sell-High Hitters

Buy Low

Ronald Acuna, Braves

He has been 76 percent worse than the average International League hitter and didn't get promoted when I expected him to get promoted. This is the only time in the past year when he could reasonably be considered a buy-low in certain circles. A few days ago a loyal reader asked me on Twitter if I would prefer Acuna or Rhys Hoskins in a dynasty league, which gave me a very rare opportunity to chose someone over Hoskins. Literally nothing about his dynasty-league value should have changed over the past three weeks, but he's cheaper now than he was three weeks ago in some percentage of leagues. I don't know what that percentage is, but it's worth finding out if his owner in your league wants to cash out. If you're willing to semi-punt on 2018, offer up one of Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, or Giancarlo Stanton for Acuna (to name a few).

Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

Another loyal reader asked me on Twitter if he should be worried about Tatis striking out 28.6 percent of the time so far this season. My short answer: No, he's 19. It's obviously more complicated than that. Sure, it'd be great if he was walking a ton and not striking out much. If he were doing that, I might have him ranked higher than No. 6 on the top 400. There should not have been an assumption that Tatis would destroy Double-A as a 19-year-old, a la Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this year and Acuna last year. I kind of expected Guerrero to rake at Double-A, but I didn't expect Acuna to do it the way he did last year. When that type of crazy performance happens, it should be unexpected. Players that age aren't supposed to own Double-A pitchers. Tatis will be fine. Check in with his owner and see if they agree with me.

Miguel Andujar, Yankees

His playing time situation has been constantly in flux this season, but his performance has been consistently mediocre. His .226 BABIP is largely to blame for that, as his 6:3 K:BB in 47 MLB plate appearances is actually above average for any hitter. He will be fine, but might not have a consistent role until 2019. If you can get him for a declining asset, now is the time to act.

Jhailyn Ortiz, Phillies

I moved Ortiz down in the top 400 prospect rankings only because it would be almost impossible to get full price for him in a trade at this moment -- he's been that bad through 37 plate appearances at Low-A. We could talk about his strikeout rate (too high) or his BABIP (too low) but the sample size is so small it would be a waste of time. The point is, if his first 37 plate appearance had been awesome and he used a .500 BABIP to get those awesome results, his owner would basically say he's off limits, or close to it. The opposite has happened, so he may be very much on the table.

Keibert Ruiz, Dodgers

Unfortunately this article will be released the day after he hit two home runs in the same game. However, he's still been 35 percent worse than the Texas League's average hitter and has not walked through 42 plate appearances, so maybe he can be had at a slight discount. Ruiz's strikeout rate is excellent (16.7 percent), his BABIP is too low (.226) and he's the second-youngest hitter in the league. Time to poke around.

Austin Beck, A's

Part of the buy-low idea is more just the notion that a player who may not have been available had he gotten off to a hot start is now available in the right deal. The Beck owner wouldn't be listening to offers if he'd gotten off to a hot start, even though what a prospect does in any eight-game stretch shouldn't really make him any more or less available. I love that his strikeout rate is only 14.3 percent. If all you told me was that Beck was going be healthy and have a strikeout rate under 25 percent this year, I'd guarantee a huge campaign at Low-A.

Sheldon Neuse, A's

Neuse is a perfect buy low, as there's a decent chance his owner wasn't a believer in him in the first place, but just grabbed him because of his hot spring or because he heard people like me talking about him before the season. Now his owner is looking at a guy he didn't even like that much who is hitting .136 with a 29.4 percent strikeout rate. He could be available for a song. However, Neuse is walking a career-best 11.8 percent of the time and has been unlucky (.200 BABIP) through 12 games. Nothing should have changed about his valuation.

Luis Garcia, Nationals

Unlike teammate Yasel Antuna, Garcia's approach has not been the issue in the early going. In fact, Garcia's 9.8 percent strikeout rate is the third-best mark in the Sally League. The 17-year-old is the league's youngest hitter, and the second and third youngest hitters in the league, Antuna and Heliot Ramos, each have strikeout rates north of 30 percent, which helps put into perspective how impressive Garcia's plate skills have been. The type of contact he has been making has unfortunately been pretty poor, as he lacks an extra-base hit, but again, he's 17 and at Low-A. He should be treated like a top-100 prospect, as he has double-plus speed, will stick in the middle infield and at 6-foot, 190 pounds, he could grow into some over-the-fence power in time.

Sell High

Josh Naylor, Padres

I'll be up front about this: I have no idea what's gotten into Naylor. All I know is that it won't continue, at least not to this extent. He's not the type of guy you make a message board post about. First you engage a rebuilding owner in trade talks, you go back and forth with a few offers, hoping that they eventually ask for Naylor. If he does, you squeeze as much value out of him as you can.

Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals

There is at least one person in your league who thinks O'Neill is an awesome fantasy prospect. That person might even be you. However, if that wasn't you before the season, and you just happen to have him on your dynasty-league roster, you should trade him as soon as possible.

His three stints at Triple-A:

His batting average at Triple-A is going to come way down, and when it does, the fact that he's stopped walking will be a pretty big issue. I think the MLB scouting report will be pretty simple: Throw him breaking balls early in the count, because he's pretty clearly trying to ambush first-pitch heaters. His is an approach that typically gets exposed against MLB pitching, and in an era where outfield defense is stressed more than ever, he'll need to completely max out offensively to deserve everyday at-bats.

Peter Alonso, Mets

I still don't buy Alonso as an everyday player in the big leagues, and there is probably somebody in your league who does buy him in that role. His defense at first base is well below average, and he projects to be somewhere between a below average to average hitter against right-handed pitching. Maybe I'm nitpicking a little, because so far Alonso has passed The First Base Prospect Test (mashing at every stop) with flying colors, but if I were a National League general manager, I would not want to give him everyday at-bats unless he greatly improves his defense. He'll have a fairly long career in the majors as a guy who destroys lefties off the bench. In dynasty leagues, I'll cash out now, before giving Triple-A pitchers a chance to expose some more holes in the profile.

Ronald Guzman, Rangers

I'm not sure what you could get for Guzman in a dynasty league, but I'd try to find out now before he falls off a cliff against big-league pitching. His value will decrease by the day.

Max Schrock, Cardinals

There's at least one owner in every dynasty league who thinks he's the next Billy Beane and does not need to value prospects the way everyone else does. This owner uses his spreadsheet and finds diamonds in the rough. Chances are, this owner already owns Schrock, but if you are somehow the Schrock owner, then this seems like a perfect time to cash out on a guy who is basically Willie Calhoun without the power.

Nick Gordon, Twins

He is repeating Double-A, which has allowed him to get off to a great start. A month ago, Gordon would have been a tough guy to get much for in dynasty leagues. That may still be the case, but it's worth seeing if someone is buying the hot start.

Minor league add/drops in CBS Expert Dynasty Leagues:

RDI

Added:

Griffin Canning, Angels ($7)
Freddy Peralta, Brewers ($6)
Shane Bieber, Indians ($4)
Dylan Carlson, Cardinals ($4)
Edward Olivares, Padres ($1) (my bid)
Mac Williamson, Giants ($1)
Lucas Sims, Braves ($1)
Jose Suarez, Angels ($0)
Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays ($0)

Dropped:

Francisco Morales, Phillies
Yu Chang, Indians
Cole Ragans, Rangers
Wes Rogers, Rockies

TDGX

Added:

Freddy Peralta, Brewers ($21)
Griffin Canning, Angels ($6)
Dylan Carlson, Cardinals ($4)
Sam Hilliard, Rockies ($2)
Miles Gordon, Reds ($2) (my bid)
MJ Melendez, Royals ($1)
Renato Nunez, Rangers ($1)
Logan Allen, Padres ($0)
Billy McKinney, Yankees ($0)
David Peterson, Mets ($0)
Josh Staumont, Royals ($0)
Jasrado Chisholm, Diamondbacks ($0)
Zac Lowther, Orioles ($0)
Ryder Jones, Giants ($0)

Dropped:

Cole Ragans, Rangers
Pedro Gonzalez, Rangers
Conner Capel, Indians
Jose De Leon, Rays