This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Friday, May 31
How Does the MLB Most Wins in the Month Work?
Betting on which team will have the most wins in a specific month has steadily become a more popular bet in MLB. April was a dead heat among several teams, with the Philadelphia Phillies getting the winning bet with 19 wins followed by the Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and the Kansas City Royals with 17 wins.
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Entering MLB action on the last day of May the Yankees are the leader with 20 wins, followed by the Phillies with 19. The Phillies were priced at 14:1 odds to have the most wins in May.
The Cleveland Guardians are next with 18 wins, but with just one game left have been eliminated from the winning monthly wins prop bet. The Phillies are priced as –190 home favorites with Aaron Nola on the hill taking on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Yankees are modest favorites when they continue their nine-game California road trip against the San Francisco Giants. So, it is possible with a Phillies win and a Yankees loss that they end up tied for the most wins in May.
The most wins in May occurred in the 2005 season when the San Diego Padres won 22 games. The Padres won the NL West, but then were swept 3-0 in the NLDS by the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2016, the Guardians and in 2022 the Yankees tied with 22 wins in June, marking the most by any team since 2004. In 2022, the Yankees made the playoffs, but lost 4-0 in the ALCS to the Houston Astros, who went on to win the World Series, 4-2, over the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2016, the Guardians lost in the World Series 4-3 to the Chicago Cubs. So, teams that are challenging for most wins in each month during the first half of the season make the playoffs.
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The Best Bets to Make for the Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins
The betting markets have the home-team Marlins priced as 108 underdogs with a posted total of 8.5 runs. The Over 8.5 runs bet is commanding +110 juice reflecting far more Under bets being placed in early action.
The Miami Marlins have had disappointing results, posting a 20-37 record (35 percent) averaging a 129-underdog wager resulting in a –24 percent ROI. They have struggled at home posting a 10-19 record (35 percent) averaging a 102-underdog wager resulting in a –74 percent ROI. They are last in the NL East standings, trailing the Phillies by 19 games, but have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games.
The reigning World Series-champion Rangers have struggled in May, going 11-15 averaging a –116 wager resulting in a –23 percent ROI. The Rangers find themselves with an underachieving 27-29 record that has averaged a –111 wager resulting in –12 percent ROI. More importantly for them is that despite their poor start they are just three games behind the AL West Division-leading Seattle Mariners.
Who Are the Starters?
The Marlins will have right-hander Sixto Sanchez on the mound, and he is 0-2 in six starts with a 6.29 ERA and a 1.684 WHIP, including 14 strikeouts and 10 walks over 24.1 innings of work. He has been at the MLB level since 2016, but a sustained series of injuries have prevented the 25-year-old from solidifying himself in any rotation. He is coming off one of his better starts allowing three runs on five hits with two walks and two strikeouts in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He walked the leadoff batter and then with two outs in the first inning gave up back-to-back doubles. He settled in after that, though, which is a step in the right direction.
The Rangers will have veteran right-hander Jose Urena on the hill. Urena is 1-2 in four starts with a solid 2.78 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP, including 14 strikeouts and just five free passes over 22.2 innings of work. He will be facing the team that gave him his MLB start in 2015, and that lasted through 2020. He is coming off a start that saw him leave early after getting struck in the ankle on a line drive but has been cleared for this start tonight.
Urena has struggled to get left-handed batters out, allowing a .304 batting average over the past three seasons. However, this season he has done much better facing lefties (.237) than righties (.250). The bad news for him is that the Rangers' current roster has hit .395 against him (30-for-76), including 12 strikeouts and an alarming 11 walks.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Monday
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 68-39 record for 64 percent winning bets that have averaged a 168-underdog bet resulting in a highly profitable 29 percent ROI and a $33,750 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2019. The requirements for this active system are:
- Bet on home teams priced between a –120 favorite and a 120 underdog.
- That team averages 3.75 or fewer runs per game in the current season.
- That team is starting a pitcher that averages fewer than five innings per start in the current season.
If the total is 8.5 or more runs these games have seen our home team go an impressive 39-20 (67 percent) averaging a –103 wager resulting in a highly profitable 33 percent ROI that has made $22,670 for the Dime Bettor. My best bet for Friday is on the Marlins priced as 108 underdogs using the moneyline.
Player Prop Bets for Friday, May 31
- Bet the Phillies Alec Bohm to hit a home run priced at +600.
- Bet the A's Max Schuemann to get a hit priced at –145.
- Bet the Diamondbacks Jordan Montgomery to record 5.0 or more strikeouts priced at +110.
- Bet the Phillies Aaron Nola to record 7.0 or more strikeouts priced at –105.
- Bet the Giants Jordan Hicks to record 5.0 or more strikeouts priced at +125.
- Bet the Cardinals Miles Mikolas to allow 4.0 or more earned runs priced at +115.
- Bet the Marlins Jake Burger to record 2.0 or more total bases priced at +115.
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