This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Games are evenly split throughout the day Saturday, which leaves us with fewer choices at night. That's particularly true given that the weather is likely to cause a postponement in Colorado and lower the game total from six to five. For purposes of this article, I've made the assumption the Mets-Rockies matchup will be postponed.
Pitchers
There are three pitchers at $9,500 or more. Justin Verlander ($10,300) feels like the safest of the group because he has averaged 24.5 DK points and faces a Rangers offense that has not been on track to begin the season. However, he has only a 25 percent strikeout rate, which doesn't stand out as compared to the rest of the pitchers available. Brandon Woodruff ($9,500) is another elite pitcher to consider. He has a 5.35 ERA but a 3.17 SIERA. He also still owns the highest strikeout rate on the slate. Finally, Washington is a mid-tier offense, though it doesn't swing and miss at a high rate.
Joe Ryan ($8,800) has been fairly boom or bust from a DFS perspective. He has four starts with at least 23 points. However, his other three have all been less than 10 points. Saturday appears to be a good chance for him to turn in a boom performance, as the Royals have the fourth-lowest wOBA in the league. They also are a contact-oriented team, which could hamper some of his ceiling.
Michael Lorenzen ($8,600) is worth noting due to a matchup against the Athletics. However, his price has risen substantially, and he'd have to turn in an upper percentile performance to return value.
Jeffrey Springs ($4,000) is the punt play of the day, and there's a pretty strong case to play him. He worked up to 4.1 innings in his last outing, so he should work close to a typical starter's outing. Even if he doesn't strike out a ton of batters, he's priced so cheaply it won't be all that harmful so long as he can prevent runs. He'll take on Baltimore at Camden Yards, which is a strong pitcher's park after offseason modifications.
Top Hitters
Wander Franco ($5,200) doesn't have an extra-base hit in his last nine starts and his price has moved only minimally. From that perspective, it's not the best time to roster him. However, he and the Rays take on Kyle Bradish, who has allowed 1.7 HR/9 this season.
Note: Franco suffered a quad injury Friday night. If he is out of the lineup, there aren't many alternatives I'd roster at a high price point for the Rays. One option could be Ji-Man Choi ($3,800).
Carlos Correa ($4,700) doesn't seem to be bothered by the finger injury that sidelined him for nearly two weeks, as he's been productive in each of his two games back. Twins hitters are attractive Saturday, as Brad Keller has the lowest strikeout rate on the slate.
Hunter Renfroe ($4,700) has demolished lefties both this season and throughout his career. By his peripherals, Patrick Corbin has deserved better than his 6.28 ERA in 2022, but Milwaukee has been one of the better scoring teams at home this season so both the context and matchup say that Renfroe is in a good position to produce.
Value Hitters
Mike Brosseau ($2,500) should be in the lineup with southpaw Patrick Corbin on the mound. He hits toward the bottom of the order, but as was just discussed the offensive environment should be good in Milwaukee on Friday.
Luis Barrera ($2,100) has hit well since being recalled by the Athletics and appears to be settling into an everyday role. He's still hitting in the bottom third of the lineup, so he's not an ideal punt play in that regard. However, he's been plenty productive and would open a lot salary for either an elite stack or starting pitcher.
Anthony Santander ($3,100) has averaged 7.1 DK points per game and is in the midst of a hot stretch. He just appears to be mispriced.
Stacks to Consider
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Patrick Corbin: Andrew McCutchen ($3,800), Luis Urias ($4,600), Christian Yelich ($4,900), Hunter Renfroe ($4,700)
I've made clear that I like the Milwaukee offense against Corbin. It's a fairly expensive stack, but there are lot of ways to pay down in the remaining three to four hitter spots. The Brewers could up being chalky in which case it loses some appeal in large-field tournaments, but otherwise this is one of my favorite cores to build around.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kyle Bradish: Yandy Diaz ($4,900), Randy Arozarena ($4,600), Harold Ramirez ($3,200), Ji-Man Choi ($3,800)
The Rays' lineup lacks significant punch without Brandon Lowe and Manuel Margot. If Wander Franco is also out, the lineup is depleted. That's positive for two reasons for our purposes, however. First, it will likely drive down the roster rate of the stack and key players in the lineup. Next, there are a lot of cheap options to build around. On a slate with a lot of elite pitchers, this is a good way to pay down with a potentially production stack.
Minnesota Twins vs. Brad Keller: Byron Buxton ($6,100), Luis Arraez ($3,600), Carlos Correa ($4,700), Jorge Polanco ($4,600)
Brad Keller allows a lot of contact, which leads to inconsistent results. However, as offense has ticked up, he's been especially impacted, surrendering 17 hits in his last 12.2 innings. The Twins, especially with Correa back, have the hitters to take advantage and with the exception of Buxton they aren't particularly expensive. This is likely to be the chalkiest stack of the day, but it's a good enough spot that I will look to get different elsewhere in large-field tournaments.
