This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
The full 15-game night slate is back!
As suggested, I sat out Thursday thanks to a beating incurred Wednesday night with Jon Lester's poor start against Pittsburgh, and Sean Manaea's early exit against Anaheim.
In terms of weather, Cleveland-Seattle appears to have the most significant concern, but even that game looks like it may be OK, or at least limited to a delay.
Nelson Cruz was scratched from Friday's lineup with leg cramps, leaving the Mariners pretty thin against Carlos Carrasco.
Without further adieu, here's a breakdown.
The Arms
Plenty of quality arms are available on both sites Friday at a variety of price points, and the Rockies are on the road. A dream Friday night, really.
Mad Max
Max Scherzer is facing a Mets team with a .275 wOBA against right-handed pitching the season, which ranks 28th in MLB, and they're currently without Yoenis Cespedes (.363 wOBA v. RHP in 2017). The only thing undesirable about the matchup is Jacob deGrom having the ball for the Mets instead of Robert Gsellman or Zack Wheeler, which likely has a role in the Nats being -160 favorites. The over/under for this tilt is sitting at even 7, which is the lowest on the schedule.
The Biggest Favorites
The Dodgers and Indians are at -195 for home matchups against the Phillies and Mariners, respectively. Carlos Carrasco has been excellent thus far, which is surprising when you consider the tumultuous course of his spring. Facing an M's lineup sans Cruz with Taylor Motter in the clean-up spot, Carrasco is more interesting to me than Scherzer when you account for the difference in price ($2,500 on DraftKings!). Ariel Miranda has the ball for Seattle, and the over/under sits at a firm 8.5.
Maeda matches up against Jerad Eickhoff, who I generally like, but will not use this evening, at Chavez Ravine. Pummeled by the D-backs in an outing that included four homers last time out, Maeda has failed to go more than five innings in each of his first four starts. He's had a very difficult time getting hitters to put the ball on the ground (0.63 GB/FB), and it's probably best to avoid him for now.
Do the Chickens Have Large Talons?
The Pirates are slight underdogs on the road against Adam Conley in Miami, but Jameson Taillon's ceiling may be high enough to consider him as a road option (o/u 7.5). Despite the fact that the Bucs' offense made me look stupid with Jon Lester earlier this week, I still have my doubts about their ability to consistently generate runs against higher quality arms, but I am willing to consider him, at least in two-pitcher setups.
Shark Sandwich
Since the start of last season Jeff Samardzija has been much more susceptible to damage against lefties, who have posted a .351 wOBA against him within a .273/.335/.493 line. With a home start against San Diego, the park factors and matchup are encouraging enough to take the chance. No park stifles left-handed homers like San Francisco, and the Padres are particularly light on quality hitters from the left side.
More Than a Feeling
Boston's offense has to wake up eventually. After ranking first in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (David Ortiz certainly did a lot to make that happen), the Red Sox currently rank 20th in that split. On the other side, Drew Pomeranz should be completely overmatched by the Cubs' offense, and the over/under (8.5) reflects it. Would Arrieta be a contrarian call Friday, or just a stupid one? Either way, I am afraid to make it.
Marcus Stroman: Always good enough to be just on the outside looking in for me as an option on FanDuel. Tonight is no different with a home matchup against Blake Snell and Tampa Bay.
I'm anxiously awaiting a turnaround from Kevin Gausman, but there are few reasons to expect it tonight at Yankee Stadium.
Lance Lynn home against the Reds might be just fine.
Charlie Morton v. Jharel Cotton is my underrated pitching matchup to enjoy of the night. That is not an endorsement of either as more than a second-pitcher pivot, however.
I'm still not ready to trust Robbie Ray at Chase Field with so many other options to choose from.
Ditto, Chase Anderson in Milwaukee.
The Hitters
As far as the biggest park boosts, the Braves and Brewers are opening a weekend series at Miller Park, where left-handed homers have been boosted by 49 percent over the last three seasons. Eric Thames is in the initial lineup for Milwaukee, as is Travis Shaw, against Bartolo Colon.
The Orioles and Yankees are battling in the Bronx, where the left-handed homer boost sits at 46 percent during that same span. Oddly enough, Kevin Gausman has been exposed more by righties than lefties since the start of last season.
At the other end, Fenway dries up left-handed power (75 park index for LH-HR 2014-16), but boosts runs by 16 percent. Wrigley Field actually suppresses runs by eight percent, and drains left-handed power in a similar manner (81 park index for LH-HR 2014-16).
Catchers
Willson Contreras ($3,100/$3,900 FD/DK) is in the mix against Pomeranz in Boston. With one of the top pitchers chewing up a significant portion of the budget, going cheap behind the dish might be necessary.
Which site you're playing in may determine the next best option.
Welington Castillo is only $3,600 against CC Sabathia tonight on DraftKings, compared to $3,100 on FanDuel. He's handled lefties very capably (.275/.333/.493) since the start of last season.
It's strange to see Jonathan Lucroy hitting ninth, but most catchers aren't hitting any higher than eighth, and Lucroy's $2,700 FD price ($4,100 on DK) is appealing even if he is currently damaged goods. Lucroy has shown a lot of pop against lefties (.496 SLG) since the start of last season, and he draws Tyler Skaggs on Friday.
As a punt play, John Hicks gets a start for the Tigers against former Tiger Mike Pelfrey. He's only $2,000 on FanDuel. (Hicks is $2,700 at first base on DK.)
Geovany Soto at $2,400 against Matt Boyd can scratch that itch on DraftKings ($2,100 on FD).
First Base
Freddie Freeman is $200 cheaper than Eric Thames on FanDuel...both are expensive, but in great spots.
Kendrys Morales against Blake Snell at $2,900 is one of the stronger mid-tier first-base plays on FanDuel and DraftKings ($3,600). The switch-hitting Morales did a lot of damage against southpaws last season (11 of his 30 homers in 182 at-bats against them), and Snell's ability to work his way into trouble with poor control makes him vulnerable regardless of the matchup.
Trey Mancini is a first-base option on DraftKings ($3,200) offering power and salary relief, and Greg Bird is an interesting dart on FanDuel ($2,600) against Gausman, but he's buried in the No. 8 spot.
Second Base
Ian Kinsler is $3,500 on FanDuel against Mike Pelfrey. Consider that a gift, and he's $4,200 on DraftKings. Jedd Gyorko against righties might be slightly overlooked ($3,600 on DK), and he'll draw Tim Adelman at home while working from the cleanup spot for St. Louis. (Note: He's $3,100 at 3B on FanDuel)
I'm still interested in Brandon Drury, especially against lefties at home, if he's in the lineup against Kyle Freeland. Drury is $2,800 on FanDuel, but $3,600 on DraftKings.
Third Base
Let's go back to the well with Manny Machado at $3,300 against CC on FanDuel, though at $4,700 on DraftKings he's much less interesting there.
Nicholas Castellanos at $3,800 on DraftKings is one of my favorite plays, assuming you're not ponying up $5,200 for Kris Bryant against Pomeranz or Nolan Arenado at $5,000 against Robbie Ray.
Chase Headley is hitting second tonight at $3,900 (DK), and the larger slate may pull interest away from him in several directions. Adjusting for the total budget, he's a better value there than he is on FanDuel at $3,500.
Shortstop
Many of the usual targets remain appealing for me at short this evening.
Addison Russell is hitting fifth against a lefty in Boston. ($3,000 FD/$3,900 DK)
Aledmys Diaz gets Tim Adelman from the No. 2 spot at home. ($3,000/$4,100)
Elvis Andrus is matched up with a lefty (Skaggs) in Arlington. ($2,900/$4,000)
Add Tim Anderson against Matt Boyd as a GPP consideration available on the cheap ($2,900 on FD, $3,400 on DK).
Outfield
Brandon Guyer is always interesting against a lefty. He's hitting third against Ariel Miranda at home. ($2,300/$3,400)
It feels strange, but I like Nick Markakis in Miller Park against Chase Anderson. ($3,100/$4,000)
Justin Upton against Mike Pelfrey at $3,600 on FanDuel, is a chalky gift, much like the Kinsler price noted above. ($4,200 on DraftKings.)
I'm also interested in using Dexter Fowler as a means to get exposure to Tim Adelman in San Francisco ($3,100/$4,100).
Unfortunately, Fridays are tricky timing wise with an afternoon podcast, but I will look to get this piece up early in the afternoon going forward.
Good luck!
