This article is part of our DFS Baseball 101 series.
Most fantasy players jump into DFS without a plan and expect it to go just like their season-long leagues. You might be a successful season-long player, but there is a learning curve with DFS and EVERYONE goes through it.
This week's article focuses on the nuances of baseball and how you can find value in them. This strategy can be applied for first time players, smaller stakes players and veteran DFS players, as often times we do not consider some of the edges these can provide.
The reason this is important is that the players' salaries are comprised of their starting baseline salary for 2016 (which is usually based on 2015 performance) and during the season it will incorporate recent performance into the price.
For example, let's say Mike Trout's opening salary on FanDuel is $5,000 based on his 2015 season. We call this his "baseline." If he starts off hot in his first few games, his salary will most likely rise to $5,200-$5,500. If he slumps for a few games, his salary will go back down.
A hitter's performance is most likely to be impacted by the opposing pitcher and ballpark. If Trout slumps because he is facing stud pitchers in tough parks and his salary decreases then there could be value if he then faces mediocre pitching in a hitter-friendly environment.
Here are some additional situations where you can find value in DFS baseball.
National League hitters in American League ballparks
Because the American League has the designated hitter, this means a bench player on an NL team will end up in the lineup either as the DH or in the field, giving another player a rest. You want to take note of who these players will be and their optimal situations.
Vs. RHP
Clint Robinson, Derek Dietrich, Brandon Moss, Matt Joyce
Vs. LHP
Darin Ruf, Ryan Raburn, Mark Reynolds, Scott Van Slyke, Javier Baez, Will Middlebrooks, Mike Morse, Kyle Blanks, Sean Rodriguez, Jedd Gyorko, Alex Guerrero
If I can get any of these players at $3,000 or less and hitting 1-5 in the batting order, I will strongly consider them in cash games. If they are hitting sixth or maybe seventh, I will consider them in tournaments because I'm more concerned about a players' ceiling than his floor. The extra at-bat that comes hitting 1-5 is critical in cash games.
Prospects
This rule of thumb does not go for all prospects. For the most part, I stick with the elite prospects who are ranked in the top 100, but there is always a player like Billy Burns who comes along and presents value.
Carlos Correa's opening salary on June 9 was $2,200 on FanDuel (the bare minimum) for the best prospect in baseball last year. Sharp players were all over Correa and were paid off handsomely. The problem was that Correa was so good, that by June 17 his salary was already at $3,900 and it peaked Aug. 8 at $4,600. Even still, you could have ridden Correa every day and it would have paid off the majority of the time.
Kyle Schwarber, Maikel Franco, Corey Seager, Carlos Rodon, Lance McCullers, and Noah Syndergaard were all prospects that DFS players profited from in 2015.
Change in Lineup Order
A player can go from having minimal value hitting in the 7-8-9 spots in the batting order to having value by getting moved up to one of the top five spots. Often times a player with speed who hits eighth or ninth gets put into the leadoff spot based on matchup, a player resting or a change in lineup construction.
Players like Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton, Anthony Gose, Cameron Maybin, Rajai Davis, and Alcides Escobar all fall under this category.
Another example of a player moving up in the batting order is when they have a significant edge against a particular handed pitcher and his lineup spot presents value.
Players like Ryan Raburn, Derek Norris, Adam Lind, Anthony Gose, Ben Paulsen, Brad Miller, Brandon Guyer, Brock Holt, Chris Coghlan, Chris Young, Darin Ruf, David Peralta, Derek Dietrich, Jean Segura, Kevin Kiermaier, and Logan Forsythe all hit higher in the batting order when facing an opposite handed pitcher.
In the case of Raburn, he hardly ever plays against right-handed pitchers. The one thing to consider is that often Raburn will be pulled for a pinch hitter if the left-handed starting pitcher is knocked out of the game and replaced with a right hander.
American League Pitcher at a National League Park/Lineup
I love targeting American League pitchers who are playing in the National League because they will face the pitcher usually two or three times a game. That could be an extra couple of strikeouts that you need to win. This is especially true when the AL pitcher's home park is a hitters' park and he is going to a National League pitchers' park. Give me Chris Sale at Citi Field vs. him pitching at U.S. Cellular.
Day Game after a Night Game
These most often to occur on Sundays, and you have to be aware that often times managers will use these games as extra rest days for veteran players, especially catchers. For example, Buster Posey might end up playing first base instead of catcher if there is a tough left hander on the mound, which means Brandon Belt will sit and Andrew Susac will be inserted into the lineup as the starting catcher.
If Susac is hitting somewhere between first and sixth, there is a good chance I'm going to look at saving some money by putting him in my lineup. Most backup catchers are minimum priced because they don't play that often. Also, a lot of backup catchers are on rosters because they hit a particular handed pitcher extremely well. A good example of this is David Ross, who is known for hitting left-handed pitchers very well and Miguel Montero does not, so it make sense Ross would play against lefties.
