Collette Calls: Uh Oh-tani

Collette Calls: Uh Oh-tani

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

My apologies for the short absence as I was away on vacation with the family in Fort Myers. We were able to take in a barnburner 1-0 Rays win over the Jays on June 13, as well as this gorgeous sunset on Fort Myers Beach the evening before we left. Besides the sweltering humidity, constant mosquitos, torrential rains every afternoon and incredibly poor drivers all over the road, the vacation was just what the doctor ordered.

The sun also appears to be setting on Shohei Ohtani's amazing 2018 season as well. We got the depressing news that he now has a grade 2 UCL sprain and that the Angels tried Platelet Rich Plasma injections. They will then evaluate things in a few weeks before deciding whether the he needs Tommy John surgery. Whether you own shares of him or not, the news is terrible. I do not have him in any of my leagues, but it has been fun to watch him pitch when he is dominating a lineup, and I even got to see him hit a home run in person in May. If you do own him, you are upset and wondering what to do with him. In a reset league, I am pessimistic he will have any value the rest of this season.

Keeper league payers and dynasty players have to consider what the future holds for Ohtani as he travels down one of two paths: the one he is currently on, or the one that

My apologies for the short absence as I was away on vacation with the family in Fort Myers. We were able to take in a barnburner 1-0 Rays win over the Jays on June 13, as well as this gorgeous sunset on Fort Myers Beach the evening before we left. Besides the sweltering humidity, constant mosquitos, torrential rains every afternoon and incredibly poor drivers all over the road, the vacation was just what the doctor ordered.

The sun also appears to be setting on Shohei Ohtani's amazing 2018 season as well. We got the depressing news that he now has a grade 2 UCL sprain and that the Angels tried Platelet Rich Plasma injections. They will then evaluate things in a few weeks before deciding whether the he needs Tommy John surgery. Whether you own shares of him or not, the news is terrible. I do not have him in any of my leagues, but it has been fun to watch him pitch when he is dominating a lineup, and I even got to see him hit a home run in person in May. If you do own him, you are upset and wondering what to do with him. In a reset league, I am pessimistic he will have any value the rest of this season.

Keeper league payers and dynasty players have to consider what the future holds for Ohtani as he travels down one of two paths: the one he is currently on, or the one that results in Tommy John surgery. Let's look at the data around both paths, beginning with the current path of PRP injections.

All of these names and associated data comes from Joe Roegale's excellent list as he tracks all of the news around elbow issues.

The first documented case of a pitcher having PRP injections was Takashi Saito in 2008. He had the injection in mid-July that season and came back to pitch that September. He went on to pitch effectively in 2009 and 2010 before seeing his 2011 season shortened by injury and his career end in 2012. In total, 17 players have received PRP injections from 2008-17, four of whom ultimately ended up having Tommy John surgery:

PLAYERPRP DATETEAMLEVELRETURNRECOVERY MONTHSTJ SURGERY
JC Ramirez8/24/2017LAAMLB4/2/201874/17/2018
Anthony Santander5/9/2017BALA+7/27/20173
Branden Kline4/15/2017BALAA5/20/201813
Seth Lugo4/4/2017NYMMLB6/11/20172
Victor Arano2/22/2017PHIAA5/31/20173
Keston Hiura1/1/2017MILColl2/18/20172
Yimmi Brasoban11/1/2016SDAA6/13/20177
Rubby De La Rosa9/27/2016ARIMLB6/23/201798/22/2017
Aaron Nola8/17/2016PHIMLB4/8/20178
Wei-Yin Chen8/1/2016MIAMLB9/19/20162
Garrett Richards5/16/2016LAAMLB4/5/201711
Michael Lorenzen4/1/2016CINMLB6/24/20163
Tyler Thornburg8/1/2014MILMLB4/7/20158
Masahiro Tanaka7/14/2014NYYMLB9/21/20142
Chad Billingsley9/1/2012LADMLB4/10/201374/24/2013
Carl Crawford4/1/2012BOSMLB7/16/201238/23/2012
Takashi Saito7/1/2008LADMLB9/15/20082

The average recovery time for the player to return to the same level of competition (not effectiveness) was 5.4 months, hence my gut feeling that Ohtani is likely done as a commodity in reset leagues for 2018. Saito, Chen and Tanaka are what people can hang on. Saito is listed as a "partial tear" while Chen had a "slight tear" and Tanaka had a "10 percent tear."

The table below shows how the pitchers fared after the PRP injection and avoided Tommy John surgery:

That is the list of pitchers who have made it back to pitch a decent amount of baseball post-PRP injection. In the case of Thornburg, he is still trying to make it back to the major leagues after missing 2017 with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery. However, there is an even split among the other pitchers on the list. The first three, all pitchers with extensive experience overseas, did not bounce back to the same level of success they had pre-injection. The US-based pitchers, all younger pitchers, have had better numbers post-injection. Ohtani did pitch overseas, but not as extensive as Chen, Tanaka or Saito, and is younger than any other pitcher on this list.

The best-case scenario for Ohtani would be what has happened to Aaron Nola, but Nola was also recovering from a low-grade tear. The more likely case could be what his teammate Garrett Richards has gone through, where it takes him longer to come back because of the severity of the tear. In that case, we would be looking at a return to the major leagues about mid-May 2019.

The other path will lead to a longer delay. Through the 2015 season, 267 major league pitchers have had Tommy John surgery. The average recovery time – as in returning to the major leagues to pitch in a game – is 18.6 months.

Some of the more extreme cases on the low end of the spectrum include names such as Ken Dayley, Mike Bielecki, John Tudor, Zach Duke, Scott Williamson, Jason Grimsley and Mike Fetters, who each made it back to a major league mound fewer than 10 months from their surgery date. On the high end, we have Jose Rijo, Jonny Venters, Cory Luebke, Neal Cotts and Ryan Madson to name a few.

If there is a silver lining to Ohtani having Tommy John surgery, it is the fact that the odds of returning to the major league level are very much in his favor given his youth. But it is important to remember there are no 100 percent success rates for surgeries and that pitchers do not "come back throwing harder" as much as they come back healthier than they were before the surgery.

Roegele's data shows that at least 82 percent of pitchers ages 20-25 return to pitch in the majors. The total sample is 119 pitchers with the average recovery time 19.5 months and the average return to the majors 84 percent.

START AGEEND AGEAVG MONTHSAVG RETURNSURGERIES
202120.6100%8
222319.982%38
242518.185%73

In summary, I do not have any good news for those of you in reset leagues for 2018 as Ohtani has likely thrown the last pitch for your team. If he does come back, it will be too late in the season to make a difference on your roster. Even if he avoids the knife, we are still not likely to get a full season from him in 2019 unless he does so as a designated hitter. If he does have surgery, we are then talking about him being out for the rest of 2018 and likely all 2019. A 2020 return does not automatically mean he returns where he left off because command is the last thing that comes back for pitchers who have Tommy John surgery simply because they have missed so much time from the game.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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