This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
You know, if you have read this column over the years, that I hold myself accountable for what I advise and I will put my money where my mouth is with my own teams. If I tell you to avoid a guy, it is not so I can go get him in a NFBC league we may be in together. If I tell you to reach for another guy, it is not to artificially inflate his value so I can target other players I like.
Back on Jan. 30, I published my list of bold predictions for the American League. Bold is the operative word because I want to make to go out on a limb because that is where the fruit is. It is easy to say something like Jose Altuve will have 180 hits in a season, but it is another to say a player will have a career year based on some stats because it allows you to get a lot for a little. Mike Podhorzer is going to win AL Tout Wars this year because he spent a total of $5 to roster Aaron Judge and Luis Severino and won Matt Olson in a $1 FAAB bid. He made a lot of other solid moves as well, but those three players, at those prices, is how winning teams are made. In March, Judge was on a crowded depth chart and the Yankees were contemplating sending him down. There were still some debating whether Severino could hack
You know, if you have read this column over the years, that I hold myself accountable for what I advise and I will put my money where my mouth is with my own teams. If I tell you to avoid a guy, it is not so I can go get him in a NFBC league we may be in together. If I tell you to reach for another guy, it is not to artificially inflate his value so I can target other players I like.
Back on Jan. 30, I published my list of bold predictions for the American League. Bold is the operative word because I want to make to go out on a limb because that is where the fruit is. It is easy to say something like Jose Altuve will have 180 hits in a season, but it is another to say a player will have a career year based on some stats because it allows you to get a lot for a little. Mike Podhorzer is going to win AL Tout Wars this year because he spent a total of $5 to roster Aaron Judge and Luis Severino and won Matt Olson in a $1 FAAB bid. He made a lot of other solid moves as well, but those three players, at those prices, is how winning teams are made. In March, Judge was on a crowded depth chart and the Yankees were contemplating sending him down. There were still some debating whether Severino could hack it in the rotation and Olson had never showed the type of power display he put on at the major league level this year before he was shut down.
Let's look back at the predictions and see how I did in helping all of us compete in 2017.
Baltimore – Kevin Gausman will earn $20 in AL-Only formats: I was only $19 off on this prediction. Rather than taking the predicted step forward, Gausman continues to spin his wheels. The fact his career 1.4 HR/9 rate did not get any worse in this year of launchball is somewhat of an accomplishment, but he spiked his walk rate. There was a stretch just after the break where he was pitching like a guy that was turning the corner as he struck out 32 and allowed just two earned runs over those four outings. It is tough to project growth out of a guy that has three consecutive years of high strikeouts, high homers, and high ERA's. It is tough to turn a corner within a spinning circle.
Boston – Tyler Thornburg will earn at least $10 out of the bullpen: This prediction never got off the ground as Thornburg was shut down in camp with a shoulder injury that was eventually diagnosed as Thoracic Outlet Syndrome that required surgery in June.
Chicago – Tim Anderson hits .265 with 15-20 homers and at least 75 runs scored: The risk in this prediction was Anderson's abysmal contact rate and if he could make enough contact around the handful of walks to get on base enough. He did not, but this prediction was not that far off. He hit .259 with 17 home runs and 72 runs scored. He has to get out of this Alexei Ramirez career path , but at 24 years old, he does show promise at the plate.
Cleveland – Tyler Naquin gets sent down to Triple-A before the All-Star Break: I avoided Naquin in drafts much like I do light beers at any social functioning. In my prediction, I cited his issues with contact, an inflated HR/FB ratio, and an even more-inflated BABIP. There was too much regression in his numbers and Bradley Zimmer was breathing down his neck. Both things happened rather quickly; Naquin was down in Columbus by mid-April, came back for three days after the break, and then was not seen again until rosters expanded. He finished the season with just 39 plate appearances at the big league level.
Detroit – Steven Moya will hit at least 15 home runs: He hit 18 homers – between Double-A and Triple-A. That big long swing never took a hack at the major league level this year and one has to wonder if it ever will. He might be better off playing overseas.
Houston – Ken Giles will be the most valuable closer by R$ in the AL: This did not happen. In fact, he was bested by Alex Colome, Roberto Osuna, David Robertson, and some guy named Craig Kimbrel. Giles got off to a sketchy start but found his groove and had a very solid season. The issue for him is he did not have that extra level of strikeouts like a Kimbrel or a Robertson and the Astros did not give him every single save chance like the others guys enjoyed.
Kansas City – Nate Karns will have a 3.50 ERA, 10+ wins, and 150+ strikeouts: Karns could have achieved all of this had he remained healthy. His season was over after 45.1 innings of work as it eventually ended with arm surgery in July. Karns had a career-best 27 percent strikeout rate when his season ended as well as a career-low 7 percent walk rate. He was giving up the homers which hit the ERA (4.17), but that 20 percent HR/FB ratio was well above the 12 percent mark of the previous two seasons. I'm still a believer in Karns, but his future may be out of the bullpen given his inability to stay healthy as a starting pitcher.
Los Angeles – Matt Shoemaker earns at least $12: He too had injury issues and his season was done before he reached the 80 inning mark and succumbed to forearm surgery. The injury was a likely cause of his struggles to command his pitches as the old axiom says: velocity problems are shoulder, control problems are elbow.
Minnesota – Max Kepler hits at least .270 with 20 homers: Kepler fell one homer short of the power prediction but well short of the batting average prediction. His overall power production took a modest step forward but the batting average remained below league average because he continues to struggle against lefties and hit an ugly .152/.213/.240 against them this year in 137 plate appearances. He did hit .272 against righties over 431 plate appearances, and the club did make the postseason so who are we to question why Kepler saw so much time against lefties?
New York – Matt Holliday hits 25+ homers, drives in 85+ runs, and plays in 140+ games: The logic was sound in that Holliday should be able to stay healthy in the DH role and he would have plenty of people on base in front of him. He did not stay healthy, and when he did play, he looked his age. There was a period of time when Yankee followers on Twitter were begging for him to retire or ride the bench. It was the first awful season he had had in his career in what was a very wasted opportunity.
Oakland – Chad Pinder finishes in the top five for AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge blew the curve for the rest of the rookie class, but Pinder was productive for power. He hit 15 homers and drove in 42 in just over 300 plate appearances. In AL formats, Pinder earned $5, equaling what Jason Kipnis brought back and exceeding what Brad Miller and Yoan Moncada did this year.
Seattle – James Paxton has a career year: Look; I picked him to win the Cy Young in the ESPN prediction contest before the season began. There were times this year when that pick looked like a genius move, but he only made 24 starts. He went 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and struck out 156 batters in 136 innings this year so this was not a matter of him not performing to the predicted level as much as him not being able to take the ball every fifth day.
Tampa Bay - Kevin Kiermaier will hit 15 homers, steal 25 bases, and hit .270: Like many of these predictions, health got in the way. Kiermaier missed a good chunk of the first half with a hairline fracture in his hip suffered while leaping at first base to avoid a tag on an infield hit. He played in 98 games and in 421 at bats, had 15 homers, 16 steals, and hit .276. In a full season, he would have likely eclipsed all three predictions. You should not overlook the fact that Kiermaier hit .306/.352/.517 once he returned from injury .
Texas - Elvis Andrus steals 30+ bases and scores 90+ runs: He only swiped 25 bases, but he did score 100 runs. Andrus did set a career high with 20 home runs and drove in 88 runs as well, so he was every bit the fantasy beast I talked about all winter, just not in the design I thought it might come in. Andrus had a tremendous overall season and re-established his name within fantasy baseball as someone we should no longer overlook for what he has not done because now, he's done it all.
Toronto - Kendrys Morales hits 30+ homers and rives in 100+ runs: He was criminally underdrafted in March in many leagues and his ADP for NFBC was surprisingly low. Morales fell two short of the home run prediction and 15 short of the RBI prediction as Toronto's lineup did not work out as well as planned. They had a number of injuries and struggles that gave the lineup a lesser look.
I'd like to throw in a bonus one that I'm rather proud of – telling you to hold tight with Trevor Bauerin late May. Bauer had been awful to that point, but went 12-5 from then on with a 3.32 ERA and 123 strikeouts. The WHIP was still bad at 1.36, but you could see him getting better throughout the second half once he had that awful first start back in Oakland behind him. I'm looking forward to watching him do more work in October.
