Collette Calls: Be Bold

"Be bold. Do what the ordinary fear."

"Fortune favors the bold."

"It's better to be absolutely ridiculous than absolutely boring."

I'm on a bit of a motivational reading kick for my day job these days as we undergo a transformation of sorts and my responsibilities are once again a national territory (hello annual Diamond Medallion status!). I've read an old business classic Who Says Elephants Can't Dance and am currently reading Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less, which I am enjoying much more than the first one because it hits a lot closer to home these days.

I bring up the bold theme because bold is where the big profits are in fantasy baseball. We know what the safe plays look like because most people make them. If everyone is doing the same thing, it does not really stand out. When Larry Labadini first spent $251 of his $260 budget on hitting, it got noticed and helped start a trend where we see auction budgets look closer to 75/25 than the 65/35 of the past. We see teams that have won while punting saves and now there are a number of owners in non-NFBC leagues willing to take that chance instead of chasing down every single reliever in a draft who could possibly get saves.

We're one-third of the way through the season, so we are in the sweet spot of making bold moves to get through the summer. I am mostly pleased with where my own teams are, save my injury-riddled NFBC team. I have been in first place in Tout Wars for a good part of the season, but now Mike Podhorzer and I trade places depending on the day of the week. I bring him up because it was an email from him that got me thinking about making bold moves.

"Hey – any interest in one of my elite non-closing relievers for Trevor Bauer?"

• Anthony Swarzak
  
• Tommy Kahnle
  
• Blake Parker
  
• James Hoyt

It is not as if those relievers are not good, because they have all been rather impressive this season:

They have all been dominating in their non-closing roles and have few flaws in their games. All but Parker are stranding a very high number of baserunners and each are piling up swings and misses at elite levels. That said, I'm still not ready to quit on the ever enigmatic Bauer for a few reasons.

Bold Prediction No. 1: Trevor Bauer is getting ready to turn the corner and become useful

This is a bold statement considering one of every five fly balls Bauer has allowed this season has left the yard. Through nine starts, he has only once avoided the long ball and has allowed multiple homers three times. Early on, he did himself no favors by piling the walks on, but that has disappeared recently. Over his last three starts, against Minnesota, Houston, and Cincinnati, he has 22 strikeouts and just three walks. He has won two of the three outings and took a no-decision against the Reds when Cody Allen blew the save as Michael Brantley was eaten up by a sinking liner that allowed Billy Hamilton to score from first on a single.

As it were, Bauer's 27 percent strikeout rate ranks 17th on the starting pitcher leaderboard, and if he can start to keep the ball in the yard, things could get really interesting. He is making more use of his curveball in recent outings, throwing as many as 47 in his start against Toronto earlier this month and no fewer than 20 over his last four outings. His current value is in the toilet and he is free for the taking in all formats.

Bold Prediction No. 2: Sean Manaea's time is also coming

The youngster has had issues with command this year, as he has twice walked five batters in a single outing, but he has also struck out at least six batters in five of his eight starts. His most recent one was seven shutout innings of the Yankees in Yankee Stadium with eight strikeouts and one walk. On the season, he has struck out 26 percent of the batters he has faced, which places him in the top 25 for starting pitchers. He has also limited batters to a .185 batting average and has a 1.11 WHIP, but has stranded just 59 percent of his baserunners despite limiting homers and the number of baserunners that reach via the hit. If he can cut down on the walks, as he did last year, he too can turn the corner quickly and start pitching like the guy everyone was chasing during draft season.

Bold Prediction No. 3: Kyle Hendricks is done.

Hendricks's first three starts were rather regrettable, but he is on a run over his last six starts with a 3-1 record and 1.96 ERA. Yet, I'm still saying sell for a couple of reasons:

1. Velocity is down from last year, by two miles per hour
   
2. Swinging strike rate is down from 10% to 8%
   
3. His walk rate is up a full walk per nine innings
   
4. He has stranded 87% of his baserunners in May; an impossible rate for a starting pitcher to maintain

Bold Prediction No. 4: Evan Longoria is going to get hot

That is a rather odd grouping of players, right? Four guys with impressive numbers and one that is lagging behind the rest. Did you know those players represent the leaderboard heading into play Monday for Barrels this season (min 150 batted ball events)? Not only that, Longoria is also 10th in the league in number of hits with an exit velocity of at least 95mph off the bat. He is hitting the ball hard, but he is hitting a lot of ground balls these days, as his career rate is 47 percent compared to a career rate of 37 percent.

Longoria has been struggling with foot problems this year, and it is noticeable when he is running on the base paths. The other area where he is struggling is against the fastball:

Despite the struggles with the fastball and the feet trouble, he is making plenty of hard contact. If he can get some more loft to the baseball, the power numbers could materialize. As it were, he had a 51 percent ground-ball rate in May, but unless he is hiding another injury, I'm betting on the hard contact winning out.

Bold Prediction No. 5: Mark Reynolds will finish with fewer than 25 homers

Over the past calendar year, Reynolds has been more valuable offensively (by wRC+) than the likes of Chris Davis, Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Napoli and Eric Hosmer, to name a few. He is off to a huge start this season with a .320/.394/.571 line with 13 homers, 43 RBI and 31 runs scored in 198 plate appearances. To put that into perspective, Reynolds had 13 homers in 432 plate appearances for the Cardinals in 2015 and 14 in 441 for the Rockies last year. This season, Reynolds is hitting one of every three fly balls into the seats and is on pace to challenge 40 bombs and drive in more than 100. He has done each of things only once in his career, and that happened back in 2009 when he played in Arizona. He has barely reached 500 plate appearances once in the previous four seasons but is playing every day now for Colorado.

Reynolds has historically been a second half laggard and it is tough to envision him continuing to play and produce at his current rates after years of trouble. Yes, his current contact rate is a career-best 23 percent, but he has fewer Barrels than the likes of Josh Bell and Kevin Pillar and his average exit velocity is equal to Randall Grichuck who was just sent to the minors. The signs of decline are already showing as Reynolds has just two homers over the past three weeks (74 plate appearances).