Collette Calls: AL West Bold Predictions

I did engage the Twitter followers asking for AL West Bold Predictions as I sat down to put my own thoughts down and people had some rather interesting bold predictions:

•Andrew Heaney is the best ERA+ of the Angels SP (@tradingipos)

•Bartolo Colon finishes top 5 in the Cy Young (@JasonPKaiser)

•James Paxton wins AL Cy Young award by a large margin (@benjamin11221)

•Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Khris Davis all hit at least 40 homers (@YancyEaton)

•Garrett Richards – 2018 AL Cy Young (@TheSpoken Keats)

•Dee Gordon – 80 steals (@BigAsian85)

•Willie Calhoun – best Ranger on the Player Rater; Sean Manaea top 35 starter, Edwin Diaz top 5 in saves, Richards 200 IP with sub 4 ERA, Jake Marisnick takes over for Marwin Gonzalez and Derek Fisher keeps the left field job all year (@CWeathermax)

•Ian Kinsler finishes as a top 10 2B (@JhawkChalk)

Adrian Beltre finishes as a top seven third baseman (@SeanDeitrick)

Not bad, folks. Not bad. Some are based in reality, and some are based in hallucinogens, but that is the fun part of spring as hope for everything is eternal. Well, except for the Tigers, because there is no hope there. Let's see which of the bold predictions above were in line with what I had penciled down for my own.

Houston Astros

Marwin Gonzalez (ADP 116) finished outside of the Top 250: The average person will look at Gonzalez's numbers and say last year was not real because he had not done that before. The real answer is the 2017 Gonzalez was unlike the previous versions of Marwin Gonzalez. There were some changes that Gonzalez made last season, starting with his walk rate. His career walk rate heading into 2017 was just under five percent, and he doubled that last season while also reducing his strikeout rate that had worsened each of the previous five seasons.

Gonzalez also made noticeable changes to his swing last year as he produced career-best results:

We see a long track record of him performing at the league average, a change kicking in, the league adjusting to that change, and then him re-adjusting, as well as expanded roster dilution of pitchers, helped him end the season on a high note. The problem I have with Gonzalez is that last year was that it was unsupported by the batted ball data as there was a substantial difference between his actual weighted on-base average (.387) and his expected one based off the batted ball data (.318):

Gonzalez's actual wOBA was the 22nd-best in baseball (min 500 results) putting him in between the likes of Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu, and Eric Hosmer. His xwOBA would have put him in between the likes of Chris Davis, Ian Kinsler, Byron Buxton, and Danny Valencia.

My last critique on Gonzalez are his splits. He has been an above-league-average hitter against lefty pitchers for his career, but that has not been the case for him when he hits from the left side. As we look back on where 2017 came from for Gonzalez, the jump in production from the left side of the plate is remarkable:

Simply put, much went right for Gonzalez in 2017, and he deserves some credit for that due to the changes he worked on before the season. That said, it is very tough to envision another level to this story while it is much easier to envision a step back toward his previous levels of production. His positional flexibility is attractive, but please do not use that and last year's numbers as an excuse to overpay for this production.

Collin McHugh (ADP 356) becomes a hybrid of Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock: This is a tough description of this bold prediction, but hear me out. Last year, Devo came in and pitched seemingly everyday and picked up wins and strikeouts while Peacock worked in a swingman role, appearing 34 times while making 21 starts as the Astros had injury issues with a couple of starters last season. Neither pitcher saw their workload increase year-over-year from 2016, but Devo did make 62 appearances, which was easily a career-high, and did fade in the second half. Both pitchers are slotted for the pen again in 2018, as is McHugh since the Astros acquired Gerrit Cole in the offseason to further crowd the rotation.

McHugh made 12 starts last year after a long stint on the disabled list with an elbow issue that did not require surgery. That issue also did not deter him from adding a new pitch as he came into 2017 with a new slider after previously not throwing the pitch:

The new pitch was part of the season why McHugh was able to put up two consecutive seasons with very consistent strikeout rates, walk rates while reducing his home run rate and his earned run average.

The last two seasons, McHugh has a strikeout rate of just over 22 percent and a walk rate just under six percent. That gives him a strikeout minus walk number of 15. 5 percent and only 20 other pitchers (min 240 IP) in that time can equal or best McHugh's K-BB% of 15.5 or better. McHugh is wholly overqualified for the bullpen, but those are the breaks when pitching for a very deep team. There are two paths forward for this misplaced starter: being traded to another team that will allow him to start or work multiple-inning relief appearances. There is value in either role for McHugh, and these skills need a chance to roar. The uncertainly around his current role is deflating his value because his ADP would jump another 50+ point if he were in a rotation. Buy the skills rather than the role.

Los Angeles Angels

My biggest bold prediction may be the fact I have predicted the Angels to win the AL Pennant in 2018.

Kole Calhoun sets career highs in home runs, RBIs and batting average with less playing time: Part of this prediction is not that difficult because the Angels are lowering the fences and Calhoun should see another four to six home runs based on his batted ball data from the past few years. The 83 runs he drove in back in 2015 is his career best and the 26 home runs he hit that year were also a career best. His best full-season batting average (500-plus PA) was the .272 he hit in 2014. My bold prediction is 27-plus home runs, 90-plus driven in and a .275-plus batting average with 575 plate appearances.

Calhoun has had at least 650 plate appearance in each of the past three seasons, and I feel that has been to his detriment. He is a good defender, but not a great one that must be left in the lineup on an everyday basis, and the Angels seem to recognize that as they added Chris Young this offseason. Chris Young is not the defender he once was nor does he hit for the power he once did. The one skill Young retains is his ability to hit lefties, and over the past three seasons, he has done that much better than Calhoun has:

Calhoun is the natural platoon partner for Young so that Calhoun does not have to face all the lefties and drag down his batting average. Calhoun will hit in the middle of a talented lineup and should have a number of RBI opportunities this year, and even more if the club lets him hit cleanup. This is one of those cases where less playing time could mean more results for the player.

Garrett Richards (ADP 174) finishes in the top 3 for AL Cy Young: This is a very bold prediction because this is a pitcher who has thrown 61.1 innings over the past two seasons dealing with arm injuries. I also believe this is a pitcher that is going to have a tremendous 2018 if (admittedly, that is a huge if) he can remain healthy.

Richards has a career groundball rate of 53 percent, and his fastball/slider combination creates a high volume of batted balls that go down more than they go up. The Angels gifted their pitcher a nice gift over the winter in signing Zack Cozart and acquiring Ian Kinsler to play along side the defensive wunderkind, Andrelton Simmons. Kinsler was the second-most valuable defender at second base in 2017 behind only Dee Gordon, who is now moving to the outfield. Cozart was the 9th-most valuable defensive shortstop last season, and the trio of he, Simmons and Kinsler are going to make it very tough on opposing hitters.

Richards is also sucking me in with the news that he wants to emphasize his curveball more in 2018. BrooksBaseball data says Richards has never thrown a curveball more than nine percent in any one season as his fastballs and slider have tied up nearly 90 percent of his pitch utilization most seasons. He has never been quite good with a changeup, but a good curveball can be very effective as a change of pace pitch, and Richards has an under-utilized hammer. The slower curve will give him two different breaking balls to spin away from righties and into lefties – the hard slider that dives in or the slower curve could potentially lock batters up or induce a swing and miss over the top of the pitch. Last year, hitters offered at his curve roughly half the time he threw it, and swung and missed 13 percent of the time.

A new pitch should lead to more strikeouts, and the terrific infield defense behind Richards is going to enhance is groundball game. Chip in the offense behind him and all of the pieces are there for an 18 win, 200-plus strikeout, and sub 3.50 ERA season IF he can remain healthy. This was my prediction for James Paxton last year, but injuries derailed it from becoming true. I am hopeful this will not be two consecutive seasons.

Oakland Athletics

I really like Yancy Eaton's prediction over Twitter that Chapman, Olson and Davis each go 40. Frankly, the A's are going to be a fun team to watch this year, and I could see them playing meaningful baseball in September if their pitching staff comes together. I have a different prediction though …

Stephen Piscotty (ADP 291) hits 30 homers: Piscotty has 38 home runs in his major league career in just over 1,300 plate appearances. 2017 was bad on just about all fronts for Piscotty between injury, family health struggles, and his results. The one redeeming quality of the season was that he spiked his walk rate and thus maintained his strong on-base percentage for his career. St. Louis did him a solid in trading him back home so he could be closer to his dying mother and have a full-time job in Oakland.

Piscotty's batted ball data last season shows he should have done 15 points better than his .319 weighted on-base average but says what he did in 2016 when he hit 22 home runs was legitimate. I am going a step further stating that the new baseballs (yes, they're different), and the change in home parks give him an outside shot at 30 with the same playing time. St. Louis has an 84/100 Park Factor for right-handed homers while Oakland is a closer-to-neutral 95/100.

Last year, Yasiel Puig hit 28 homers, and his 2017 average launch angle and exit velocity compare nicely to Piscotty's:

The drop in velocity changed the effectiveness of both the fastball and the changeup as that combination of pitches created fewer swings and misses than they did in the first half:

Manaea made 20 starts from April through July and struck out seven or more in nine of those 20 outings. A start in August against the Angels got ugly, while the following outing against Baltimore saw him give up six earned runs and never recording a second out. The inconsistencies followed until he ended the season on a high note against Texas.

The weight is back on for him, and his three-pitch combination should be back the shape it was in the first half where he was racking up strikeouts and even had a five-game win streak around Memorial Day. The lineup around him, plus the addition of Jonathan Lucroy framing pitches for him behind the plate, should help Manaea pick back up where he left off mid-summer and have a very strong third full season in the big leagues.

Seattle Mariners

Mike Zunino (ADP 157) finishes outside the Top 250: It is no secret that I have never been on the Zunino bandwagon. I have written a number of articles about him on this site
overtheyears, but I am still not ready to join the fun in 2018. Last year was more ups than downs for the catcher, but there remains quite a bit of streakiness to his production:

Zunino's actual weighted on-base average finished the season at a robust .360, but his expected weighted on-base average was just .318. I have used this metric enough this winter for regular readers to understand how this works, but in case you do not, it is like saying a guy hit .251 when the batted ball data says he should have hit .207. Oh wait, that is what Zunino did last year as he posted a BABIP 100 points above his career average in 2017. When Zunino did put a batted ball in play, and not over the fence, they became hits more frequently than ever for him despite no gains in foot speed.

The fact remains Zunino still struggles to make regular contact at the plate, and even the homers and batting average spike after his recall last year could not hide that:

ADP has him as the ninth catcher off the board while our site rankings have him as the 15th-best catcher in the player pool. Catcher is not a very good situation this year, so 15th is the new 25th regarding rankings. Do not get sucked in by last year's numbers as they are built upon a weak foundation. There is still a lot of risk in his game; the home runs should continue, but the average is going to crater, and it will hurt you because he will play quite a bit this season with no decent backup available.

Marco Gonzales (ADP 598) earns $8 in AL-Only leagues: Gonzales is behind Alex Meyer on the ADP list and Meyer is unlikely to throw a regular season pitch as he recovers from a torn labrum surgery he had in September. The lowest ranked pitcher we have in our RotoWire rankings is Chris Tillman, but at least he is ranked because Gonzales is not. I am not sure which ranking is more insulting to this pitcher.

Gonzales made it back from Tommy John surgery last season to pitch in 11 games and get 40 innings of work in. The 6.08 ERA was atrocious, but that will happen when you allow eight home runs in 40 innings of work. Gonzales had his pre-injury velocity back last year, but that is not suprising. Velocity is not the problem for pitchers in their first year back as much as lack of command is. Pitching is a feel craft, and being away from live action for so long is always going to lead to command issues that first season back pitching. The other factor here is that the rehab took away his cutter, which was his best pitch regarding generating swings and misses back in 2014.

Gonzales has always been better against lefties than righties. Hee sed his cutter 25 percent of the time down the stretch against righties in 2014 and found better success against righties once he brought the cutter into play holding them to a .186/.314/.372 line the rest of the season. Gonzales's results against righties that season before the cutter was revealed in-season was .323/.425/.500, a line topped only by the .346/.388/.566 line he had against them last year during his recovery.

The cutter coming back turns him into a decent speculative play in AL-Only leagues as he was a $6 pitcher in 2014 while not even pitching that entire season. The velocity is already back, the command should be better, and if the cutter is back to allow him to be more effective against righties, this is free help that is currently sitting out there looking for a home.

Texas Rangers

Shin-Soo Choo (ADP 263) is out of a starting job by the All-Star break: For this bold prediction, I will remind you of information I outlined in a piece on lefty platoon splits earlier this winter:

Choo is an interesting case because his defense does not deserve extra playing time, but his plate skills do. His OBP the last six years was .373, .423, .340, .375, .357 and .357. His defense is bad enough where he needs to be a full-time DH, but he got 77 games in the outfield in 2017. The issue is whether to believe the recent 200 plate appearances against lefties or the previous four years of futility against them. He has an established ability to earn his walks against lefties throughout the years, but it has only been recently that he has been able to do anything else but walk against them. Last year, it was mostly a singles game for him as 29 of his 35 hits against lefties were singles and just one went over the fence. 

The Rangers do not look like a contending team on paper since they are very weak on the pitching staff. If Choo struggles, as I expect him to, and the club falls into the second division mid-season, he could lose his playing time to Ronald Guzman. Guzman is a top 10 prospect in the organization that will be ready to come up this year but is currently blocked by Joey Gallo. The 35-year old Choo is still due $62M through the 2020 season, which is going to make it all but impossible to trade him but should also not serve as a reason to play him full-time.

The numbers last year were good, and that has mostly been the case in recent years. The stinkbomb of 2014 is still fresh in our minds, and 2016 was not great either once you remove his on-base abilities. That is the one skill that has remained constant in recent years, but the other numbers have had quite a bit of variance and makes him more of a risk in regular 5x5 leagues that do not value him for his best skill at this stage of his career.

Mike Minor (ADP 315) ends the season as the most valuable Rangers starting pitcher: Let us be frank: This is a terrible starting rotation. Cole Hamels is not what he once was, Matt Moore is still trying to rediscover his pre-TJ form, Doug Fister is present, and Martin Perez is the prototypical fifth starter. Hamels' ADP is 75 spots ahead of Minor, but Minor is the one we should be watching. He returned to the majors in 2017 after missing the previous two seasons recovering from a torn labrum. He looked fantastic out of the bullpen last year with his newfound velocity across the board:

The lefty signed with Texas because he saw the same thing the rest of us do – a clear path to a starting spot in the rotation. Until 2017, Minor had been a starter for his entire career and last year's efforts certainly earned him another opportunity at the job. The transition is rather reminiscent of the one C.J. Wilson took years ago when the Rangers turned him from a very similar role into one of their better starters the following year. The concern for Minor is that he has thrown 77.2 innings from 2015-2017, so how he holds up with an increased workload remains to be seen. He has a four-pitch repertoire, and three of those pitches had positive run values last season as was the case in 2012. He may only be good for 140 innings in 2018, but it will be a better body of work than the other arms on this staff.

Next week, I will be in New York City for the AL Tout Wars draft. I will have a writeup of that draft as my next piece and look forward to you tearing my roster apart!