This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College World Series 2024 Best Bets Today
Happy Father's Day to all the daddies out there. Hope it's a great one for you guys. Going to try and deliver a W for everybody. Not much has gone my way this week, with every loss coming by one run with something ridiculous happening in the ninth inning. Tough for me this week so far. Let's try and get back on the wagon.
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UNC Tar Heels (+130) @ Tennessee Volunteers (-166) | Total: 11.5
Both teams won their first games in walk-off dramatic fashion. UNC leaned more into their pitching to force that comeback, while Tennessee's elite offense was the difference maker to erase a three-run deficit in the ninth inning to make Florida State melt down. This is the big one because the winner moves on to be 2-0 and grab a stranglehold on the bracket and be one win away from the finals.
Tennessee is turning to their guy Drew Beam. Beam was on that 2022 staff that came up short in the Super Regionals. Though he was the Sunday guy for the last two seasons, Tennessee elected to make him the Saturday guy for the 2024 campaign, and it's been a regression from the last two years. In 2022, he sported a 2.72 ERA with a .186 batting average against. Last year, regression came with a still respectable 3.63 ERA and .267 average against. This season has been his worst, in a draft year no less, with a 4.44 ERA and .263 batting average against.
It's been a mixed bag for Beam this season as he is capable of going six or seven strong, but also can give up four or five runs in five innings. In his last three outings, we haven't gotten the best version as he as surrendered 14 earned runs in 13 innings. The thing about this time of year is stats don't matter. The reality is Beam can go out there today and shove six innings of two-run ball even against a great Tar Heel offense. There are a lot of weapons for UNC, and it all starts with the superstar CF Vance Honeycutt, who has been the hero the last few games. You know how much I love Honeycutt, as I believe he is one of the true five-tool players in the country with 1.1 draft potential if he cuts down the swing and miss. But perhaps the best pure hitter on the team is Casey Cook and his .345 average, 18 homers, and 1.051 OPS. Navigating the top of the lineup might be the X-factor today.
For UNC, it looks like Shea Sprague will get the ball. The junior lefty has enjoyed a solid season with a 4.00 ERA and just 16 walks in 74.1 innings. Like Beam, both are susceptible to the long ball, as Sprague has allowed 12 of them this year. We've seen that the Omaha park has been limiting them, but we know Tennessee can still punch it out. The big if for Sprague is keeping the traffic to a minimum, which is a tough ask. With the best 1-3 part of the lineup in the country in Christian Moore, Blake Burke and Billy Amick, it's important he neutralizes them since those dudes are in the middle of these big Volunteer innings.
Ultimately, I want UNC to win today, but I don't know if I see enough of an edge. If Sprague isn't sharp, then it could be a long afternoon. While I do think UNC has the bullpen edge, it may not matter if Tennessee is up four or five runs after the first half of the game. After the umpire gifting UT the game against Florida State on that controversial check-swing call against Blake Burke – where he CLEARLY went around – it just seems like everybody else is going up against an avalanche. It completely changed the entire landscape of the tournament. Because of that, the Vols have so much momentum that they may actually be the team to break the No. 1 seed curse in 25 years (of course). Hopefully UNC can win today for the sake of any chance FSU can rally, but the clear edge looks like it's with the Vols.
Pick: Tennessee Volunteers ML -166
